Post on 25-May-2020
transcript
DOING MORE WITH LESS:
IMPROVED CONFIDENCE LEVELS VIA REDESIGNED
AMMUNITION QUALIFICATION TESTING
A method to improve small arms ammunition qualification for use in existing ADF small arms weaponry using statistical test techniques applied within the US Defense Department
Mr Roy Henry / Dr Keith Joiner CSC
SCOPE
• Why This• Background• Current Test - DMSP• Problem• History – 6000 rounds• Proposal • Old vs New – Round / Test Design• Summary• Recommendations
WHY THIS• ADF desire to IIS new ammunition• I wanted to understand the test regime• Tests appeared unnecessarily repetitive • Opportunity to study it – and apply sound
principles to redesign the test• Dr Keith Joiner’s Advanced Test and
Evaluation Course
BACKGROUND• Policy: ADF DMSP-1QMS (ENG) 12-8-031 Safety and suitability for Australian
service (S3) assessment for small arms weapon systems
• Predominately based off two standards:• NATO STANAG 4608 Ammunition below 12.7mm Cal Design Safety Requirements
and Safety and Suitably for Service• NATO AC / 225 D/14 Evaluation Procedures for Future NATO Small Arms Weapons
Systems, 6 Jul 01
• Endstate• “Obtain Sufficient OQE to support Technical Certification of system (weapon and
ammunition)”• The system is therefore safe to conduct manned firing, user trials or introduce new
ammunition or weapons into service.
CURRENT TEST: DMSP
• Outlines the four different tests:• Manned firing clearance• User Trial• Provisional Design Authority / TC with Conc)• Full Design Authority / Tech Cert)
• Ambiguous and contradictory in parts
• 6000 round “endurance” requirement
*Taken from DSMP, Table 2
CURRENT TEST: ROUND COUNT• One Ammunition Type
• Minimum 18 260 rounds required (3 weapons)
• With Suppressor – newSteyr
• 36000 rounds
• 1200 magazines• ~5h to load (2 rounds /
second)
• 12000 rounds perweapon – incredible useage20 240
1320
6000
3960
18000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Technical Manned Firing User Trial Manned Firing Advice(One Temperature)
S3 for Provisional DesignAcceptance
S3 for full Design Acceptance
NUM
BER
OF
ROUN
DS
Amount of rounds required IAWDMSP for each stage
One weapon Three Weapons
PROBLEM
• Test Parameters:• External Ballistics• Endurance• Temperature assessment• Function and Casualty
• 6000 rounds fired over four discrete temperature ranges
• -46 OC• -6 OC• +21 OC• +71 OC
• Test Outputs:• Muzzle Velocity• Accuracy (Group)• MPI shift• Ejection Pattern• Weapon / Ammunition failures
1050
1050
1050
1800
1050
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000Breakdown of the 6000 Rounds
Temp .-46 oC Temp .-6 oC Temp 21 oC Temp 21 oC Temp 71 oC
HISTORY - 6000 ROUNDSQuirk of history which has been applied to ammunition qualification testing
Production Testing, Lot acceptance, Serviceability RegimesTests are Weapon Focused
1987 M4A1 Mil SpecMIL-C-70599
1995 Army(AUST) 6443 Australian Steyr F88
2007 US TOP 3-2-045Small Arms – Hand and Shoulder Weapons
2001 NATO D/14
Production Lot Acceptance5 in every 500 weapons
Production Lot Acceptance1 in every 7500QA program
“determine the functioning and endurance performance of the
weapon behaviour and serviceability of all parts”
“determine the functional life of the weapon and its component parts. …data helps establish
logistical requirements for parts stockage and replacement schedules…”
ANALOGY
Fuel is the ‘ammunition’ for the car (Weapon)
Car needs to drive long distance (6000km) without falling apart
Quality of car being tested, not fuel
You don’t drive long distance as a test each time you change fuel providers…
PROPOSAL : AMMUNITION S3 REIMAGINED
DOE inspired model of the ammunition qualification system• Assumptions:
• OEM has qualified round • Round has undergone
certification/compliance activities
• In production / use with other users
Y4 – Ejection pattern reduced in scope as deemed qualitative measure
PROPOSAL: IMPROVING STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE
• Used Projectile Velocity as the basis• Velocity is directly related to group size, and therefore MPI shift. Slower velocities mean the
projectile drops quicker (and vice versa)• Standard Deviation of 6m/s was used as representative of mass produced factory
ammunition• One sample equates to five rounds
OLD VS NEWROUND COUNT COMPARISON
• 92% reduction in rounds / testing
• Reduced• Labour• Laboratory time• Funding• Waste
• Savings can be reinvested in other areas20 240
3960
18000
20 220 1140 13800
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Technical Manned Firing User Trial Manned FiringAdvice (OneTemperature)
S3 for Provisional DesignAcceptance
S3 for full DesignAcceptance
Current vs Proposed Ammunition Usage
Current DMSP Proposed DOE Model
OLD VERSES NEWTEST COMPARISON
• Green = similar• Orange = modified• Red = removed
• More streamlined
• 18260 vs 1400 Rounds
SUMMARY• Proposed Test regime demonstrates that test data quality is not
compromised and a more informed approach can be taken for full technical certification
• The research found the 6000-round per weapon requirement probably derived from weapon qualification standards rather than ammunition qualification standards.
• The research has proposes a first-principled and statistically rigorous rationale for such S3 testing based on what the S3 output responses should be and the use of U.S. DoD design-of-experiment techniques.
• The historical context combined with the analysis attempts to show that endurance testing should be by exception only.
RECOMMENDATIONS• ADF has an opportunity to revisit the current small arms ammunition S3 testing
procedure (DMSP, 2015) to:
• remove the identified ambiguities and inconsistencies• improve its applicability,• remove the default endurance requirement• specify statistically guided testing within required confidence limits to provide a more
informed outcome so as to achieve a significant reduction in test time and resources• seek US ATEC DOE discussion to confirm our approach