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Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Changing the Research to Operations Framework to Include All Partners: First Steps Toward the New Paradigm
Dr. Eve Gruntfest and Monica ZappaIntegrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop
October 27, 2009
Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM)University of Oklahoma
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Today’s presentation 1. Evidence that the process of weaving in social science and
changing the stovepiped paradigm is underway Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM)WAS * IS (Weather and Society * Integrated Studies)
2. Our contributions to this workshopMethods and results from interviews - tornado and hurricane examplesInclusive model with all players as equal partners
3. Ways to move forward together this week and after the workshop
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM)
The National Weather Center – Norman, OK Funded by University of Oklahoma and NOAA www.sswim.org
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
SSWIM’s objectives are innovative research and capacity building
• … by increasing the appreciation of the value of qualitative as well as quantitative approaches including archival, ethnographic, and participatory methods
• … through partnerships with public, private, and academic sectors, including students, practitioners, and policymakers across the spectrum of stakeholders
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
water
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
The WAS*IS movement • Began as 1 workshop … now 7 • Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006)• Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) • Summer WAS*IS (July 2006)• Australia WAS*IS (end of January 2007)• Summer WAS * IS (July 2007)• Summer WAS * IS (July 2008)• Summer WAS*IS (August 2009)• Integrated Warning Team Meetings inspired by WAS * IS
• Springfield, MO December 2008• Kansas City, MO January 2009 ANDY BAILEY is HERE• Omaha, NE September 2009
As of October, 2009 - 198 WAS*ISers and hundreds of “friends of WAS * IS”
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Groundwork prior to this workshop Workshops
– Advanced WAS * IS workshop in Norman with Hazardous Weather Testbed September 2008
– NEX GEN warning meeting December 2008
Call to Action policy changes and discussions – Tornadoes and vehicles– Report from Ike
Integrated Warning Team meetings (after Kansas City meeting) • All TV stations have consistent warning map colors• Live Skype video from NWS office on air during severe
weather• List-serve email list for all IWT members in KC metro• Increased NWS chat adoption and use• Developing set of uniform siren guidelines for KC metro
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Challenge To develop ways to incorporate preferences of forecasters and decision-makers in new hazard warning tools
Our experiment• to bring forecaster and decision-maker stories and
experiences • to enrich the context in which new tools are
invented
• Take advantage of existing capacity in Boulder and Norman – how can we work together effectively
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
PublicsWeather Forecasters
Media
Emergency Managers & 1st Responders
6
Developers
Researchers
Today’s end-to-end decision-making relationships
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Our methods• Conduct interviews across the spectrum of folks participating
in the workshop
• Construct graphics highlighting spatial and temporal needs of forecasters and decision-makers
• Weave needs of decision-makers into the workshop agenda and next generation warning products
• Complex process – – We’ve only scratched the surface– Need for patience– many languages – listening a MUST– Commitment to new ways of doing business
• Developing interactive end-to-end practices that change the paradigm to include all partners all the time
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Study Participants
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Finding - Interviewed forecaster and developer have different concerns
• One forecaster– Too many types of warnings to keep track of– Difficulty with beginning and ending times (especially in
situations with many warnings at once)
• One developer– Many warnings do not follow the storm and parts of
counties get clipped out– Boundary issues: forecast office warning jurisdictions – Often not enough lead-time when new warnings are not
issued until the storm leaves the old polygon
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
One weather forecaster Super Tuesday events February 2, 2008
• Many overlapping warnings – ending/beginning• Number of warnings was extremely difficult for the
forecasters to monitor At one point 20 warnings (tornado and severe thunderstorm)
issued for our forecast area. Forecasters had to keep track of all the warnings, when they start and stop
• Warnings were continuously expiring and being reissued – Many places were in and out of warnings several times
W1W3W2 W10W4
W11W8
W5 W9W6W7
W12W14
W13W15
W16
W17W18
W19W20
Timet0
W1 W3W11W5 W9W6
W7W14
W13W15 W17W18
W19
t1 =1h
20 WarningsW21
W22 W23 W24
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Storm Motion
11:02-11:20
11:50-12:20
11:12-11:43
11:05-11:35
11:00:11:21
10:55-11:1511:02-11:35
11:36-12:23
11:46-12:18
11:45-12:21
11:55-12:25
11:49-12:28
11:51-12:26
11:40-12:27
11:45-12:20
12:29-12:48
12:26-12:40
12:28-12:50
12:27-12:51
12:28-12:48
12:29-12:48
Current timeWarnings must follow the storm– too much confusion (hypothetical case)
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
•Program settings exclude counties if only a small part of the warning is included
• Most severe weather was missed in this event
•Gaps between polygons can exclude severe portions of the storm•A problem for people that receive warnings from a GPS mobile device
One programmer's perspective
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Time Scale
0 km
100 Km
1000 km
100 Km
1000 km
6Jan 31
5 4 3 2 1Feb 1 Feb 2 Feb
3Feb 4 Feb 5
First outlook issued
1st watch issued (2pm)
2nd watch issued (3pm)
1st warning issued 9pm
Nashville sirens sounded
13 fatalities44 injuries Near Lafayette, TN
Awareness raised among emergency managers, and other officials
Hospitals, Schools, Events?
26 tornado warnings issued8 severe storm warnings
Geographic space scales: Regional, State, Local
10 Km
10 Km
Future research is needed to fill in this timeline with a more representative sample of the decisions to be made and by whom
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
5 Days 4 Days 3 Days 2 Days 1 Day Event
One county emergency manager’s hurricane warning time/space considerations
Conference calls EMs & NWS –
storm potential
Decisions about whether or not to evacuate special
needs populationsDecisions about
whether or not to evacuate everyone
at risk Evacuations – none, some/all of county
NWS Forecasts
are integrated in storm
surge models
Evacuation decision begin: When? Who?
To where? Order busses?
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Examples of societal impacts - Public perspectives
Consider people and infrastructure – If a area is not in a warning does that mean there is not a
threat?– When (days, hours, rush hour, holiday, first snow of season)– What facilities (roads, hospitals, schools, factories) – What kinds of (probability, threat levels) information may be
useful to different publics BEFORE the time of a warning?– No such thing as ideal lead time – Tell what you know
• People planning a trip or large outdoor event• Mobile home dwellers without nearby shelter or without
transportation• Hiker
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
PublicsPublicsWeather
Forecasters
Media
Emergency Managers & 1st Responders
6
Developers
Researchers
Relationships addressed in Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop
Various publics are not represented at workshop
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Putting it all together: Future relationships for developing effective warnings
Interactive relationships with all the hazardous weather decision makersChanging the paradigm of hazardous weather warnings
PublicsPublicsWeather
Forecasters
Media
Emergency Managers & 1st Responders
6
Developers
Researchers
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Change “public education” paradigm – recognize two -way relationships – The “right” message is one piece of the puzzle to change behaviors
Flash flood example
• Drivers know there are warnings and where the hazardous low water crossings are but THEY NEED TO GO to work
• Potential to lose their job is perceived as a greater risk than driving across flooded road
• Better information is NOT going to change behavior - only if boss closes work
• Publics use weather warnings as part of complex decision-making with many other considerations –
THEIR BEHAVIORS must be understood to improve warning responses
• Evaluate public education efforts - Before, during, after
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Changing Research-to-Operations paradigm – Show commitment to sustained effortsSponsor more efforts to bring players together (software developers
and researchers with each other – Boulder and Norman) – Testbeds– Workshops
Recognize consistent themesNO one size fits allNO perfect lead-timeTime and space needs are case and person specific
Bring in social science to help with tool development, surveys of publics, forecasters, and other decision-makers and program evaluations
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Ways to move forward Involve social scientists
– Identify best ways to change the paradigm to be more inclusive (Bring in more associations, agencies, companies, universities, local governments)
– Be equal players with software developers, modelers, and physical scientists
– Perform program effectiveness evaluation research– Participate in more local Integrated Warning Team
workshops (Develop local collaborations between emergency managers, media, NWS)
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
National Weather Servicehydrologists
Private forecastersEnvironmental groups
Local communitiesEmergency managers
Changing the Research-to-Operations paradigm occurs when stovepipes are not the model
Universities
Research centersSoftware developers
Urban drainage districtsAnthropologists, Geographers
Broadcast meteorologistsUtilities
National Weather Servicemeteorologists
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
What did the most influential players in weather warning work look like prior to the Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop?
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Effective new hazardous weather warnings require more than new technologies, models and tools – new ways of thinking about hazards and warnings are required
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
The people of the Global Systems Division, the Hazardous Weather Testbed- All of us are changing the uni-dimensional culture
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Dr. Tracy Hansen for her vision and hard work to bring us all together today and… from now on in sustainable ways
All of US committed to better hazard warnings across agencies, geographic boundaries, and disciplines
Dr. Steve Koch for continuing to inspire and fund this developing partnership
Thanks to
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Extreme speed of
watershed responses
Extremely short lead-time for warnings
Isabelle Ruin WAS * ISer NCAR post doc – New time/space analysis – hydrometeorology