Post on 16-Dec-2015
transcript
Dr W.Zhang, D/OBS 1
World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
WMO Integrated Global Observing System
WIGOS
www.wmo.int
WMO
Global Societal Needs
• Improved protection of life, and property (related to impacts of hazardous weather, climate, water and other environmental events and increased safety of circulation and transport on land, at sea and in the air)
• Poverty alleviation, sustained livelihoods and economic growth (in connection with the Millennium Development Goals) including improved health and social well-being of citizens (related to weather, climate, water and environmental events and influence)
• Sustainable use of natural resources and improved environmental quality
Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate
Intensity
Frequency
Heatwaves
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Tropical Cyclones
Coastal Marine Hazards
Strong Wind
Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement
HealthHealth IndustryIndustry
Food Food securitysecurity
TransportTransport
EnergyEnergy
Urban areasUrban areas
Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing
Exposure is increasing !
Need fordisaster riskmanagement
Risk levels: Top 30%:Red; Middle 30%:yellow; Lowest 40%: Blue:
Global Hotspot study (World Bank with ProVention Consortium)
35 countries have more than 5% pop in areas at risk from three or more hazards96 countries have more than 10% pop in areas at risk from two or more hazards160 countries have more than 25% pop in areas at risk from one or more hazards
Global ChallengesAs society becomes more complex we become more
sensitive to natural and human induced variability.
NMHS Operational servicePressing Requirements
• Current– Severe Weather DRR– Monthly to seasonal Prediction – …
• Future– Climate Services– Environmental Services– Water issues– Sustainable development– ……
A Seamless Prediction Framework
Fo
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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
PredictioPredictionn
Applications
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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
Initial Conditions
Boundary Conditions
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
2 Weeks
Months
Seasons
Years
Weather
Climate Variability
Scenarios
Anthropogenic Forcing
Climate Change.
Adapted from: NOAA
Decades
Centuries
Studying Earth as a Complex System
CirculationSurface WindsPrecipitation
Reflection and TransmissionSurface Temperature
EvaporationCurrents
Upwelling
CirculationSurface WindsPrecipitation
Reflection and TransmissionSurface Temperature
EvaporationCurrents
Upwelling
InfiltrationRunoff
Nutrient LoadingSurface Temperature
Currents
InfiltrationRunoff
Nutrient LoadingSurface Temperature
Currents
Surface WindsPrecipitation
Reflection and TransmissionEvaporation
TranspirationSurface Temperature
Surface WindsPrecipitation
Reflection and TransmissionEvaporation
TranspirationSurface Temperature
Land
Ocean
Atmosphere
Mid-1970s
Atmosphere
Mid-1980s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Early 1990s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
Late 1990s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
SulphateAerosol
Present Day
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
SulphateAerosol
Non-sulphateAerosol
Carbon Cycle
Early 2000s?
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
SulphateAerosol
Non-sulphateAerosol
Carbon Cycle
DynamicVegetation
AtmosphericChemistry
Weather
Climate Change
ClimateVariability
Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the Required Observations
Need an Integrated Global Observing
System Going Beyond the WWW
To improve service deliveryNeed more observations and data
• WIGOS will pave the way for better future observing systems development.
• What are the priorities– Atmosphere– Oceans– Land surfaces – Polars and Cryosphere– External and internal forces (Sun, GHGs, etc)
• Strategy– Steady increase of WMO Mandated observing
capabilities in both Space and Surface components-GOS Vision 2025
– Enhanced international partnerships
Some Key instruments
• Satellite Major Sounding and imaging instruments
• Weather Radars
• In situ Climate Observation instruments (Radiosonde for GRUAN, GAW, etc)
• In situ weather observing instruments (AWS, lightning, GPS, Profiler)
Cg-XV (2007)
• Resolution 30 (Cg-XV) - Towards Enhanced Integration between the WMO Observing Systems:
Establishing a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observing systems, ensuring interoperability between its component systems:
WMO Integrated Global Observing System WIGOS
From Observations to Consequences
Understanding
Models
Predictions
ConsequencesValidation
Assimilation Initialization
Monitoring
Analysis
Observations
The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in understanding, prediction, and application.
Surface observation network
Upper air observation network
87%
Total in situ networks March 200961%
66%
81%
59%79%48%54%
Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate Status against the GCOS Implementation Plan and JCOMM targets
100%
100%
MilestonesDrifters 2005
Argo 2007
Status of the System8055 Platforms reporting in February
M eteo -0 1-3
F IG U R E 1 -3
C o n stella t io n o f m eteoro log ica l sa tellite s of W M O G lo ba l O b serv in g S y stem (sta tu s 2 00 8 )Space-based observing system
Future of Global Earth ObservationsTechnical Innovation
GOES-I/P Instruments GOES-R Baseline
Data Rate: 2.11 Mbps Daily Rate: 132.0 Mbps
Daily Output: 181 Gb Daily Output: 16,000 Gb
5-Order Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over 10 Years
Year
Count
(Mill
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Daily Upper Air Observation Count
Year
Satellite Instruments by Platform
Count
NPOESSMETEOPNOAA
WindsatGOESDMSP
1990 201020001990 2010 2010-250chYear
2002
• Major contributions from:– More observed data, especially satellite data– Improved physical processes– More powerful computers
NWP continued improvementN. Hemisphere
• Ops 1980 introduced satellites data, since then continuously improvement。
G.A.Kelly (ECMWF)
NWP continued improvement
From G.A.M. Kelly talk on ECMWF Forecast Improvements (September, 2003)
Southen Hemisphere
3.5 days
Convergence of N.Hem and S.Hem Medium
Range Forecast skill 1981 – 2004
User Community
OPERA:Observation and Prediction of the Earth environment for
Real Applications
• Advanced Sensors• Sensor Web• Information
Synthesis• Access to
Knowledge
InformationInformation
•Partners•NOAA•DOD•FEMA•USGS•DHS•Other
Govt•Commerci
al•Internatio
nal
Weather Forecast User-oriented System Including Object Nowcasting
POLDIRADsurface observations
cloud trackerradar tracker
lightning
User-specifiedTarget WeatherObject
TWO
SYNPOLRADlocal forecast
ensembleforecast
SYNRAD
SYNSATobject
comparison
forecast validationforecast validation
FusionTracking Nowcast (0 -1 hrs)Forecast (1 - 6 hrs)
TWO
Setting the WMO Foundation : WIGOS in the Next Decade
• The extraordinary WMO foundation of global observations is at great challenge if it is not adequately prepared to meet society’s rapidly evolving Earth information needs.
• WIGOS will set the WMO Foundation in the Next Decade for sustained development.