Post on 27-Mar-2015
transcript
Drought in Kenya and its Humanitarian consequences
IntroductionArid and Semi-Arid lands (ASAL) cover about
88% of the total area of the country. Arid areas - 125 and 500 mm of rainfall p.a. Semi arid areas - 400 and 1250 mm of rainfall
p.a.The economic mainstay - livestock production. Region owns 50% of Kenya’s livestock populationRegion experiencing frequent and more severe
droughts due to climate change.Increasing frequency of drought contributing to
accelerating poverty in the ASAL areas (>70%).
-contd
Drought causes a reduction in the natural potential of the land and depletion of surface and ground resources.
It has negative repercussions on the living conditions and the economic development of the people affected by it.
Currently, the lowest HDIs are found in areas frequently hit by drought
Environmental problems
Increased pests and diseases, soil erosion, habitat and landscape degradation, a decrease in air and water quality, and increased risk of fires
In prolonged droughts, natural environments fail to rebound and plant and animal species can suffer tremendously, and over time causing desertification
Negative coping strategies for survival such as increased over-exploitation of accessible natural resources, helps to aggravate desertification and hold up development.
Economic impacts
A decline in crop yields and livestock productivity implies a reduction in income for farmers, those with economic ties to it, and an increase in the market price of products
Acute lack of water & pasture results in livestock and wildlife losses
A prolonged drought will cause unemployment of farmers and retailers,
Diversion of development funds to emergencyIncreased poverty and malnutrition
Social impacts
Disputes between users of available natural resources, inequalities in resource allocation or access, disparities in relief assistance,
A decline in health, poor sanitation, increased poverty and eventually death.
Prolonged, separation of families may occur due to migration causing food insecurity, malnutrition and increased risk of mortality
Desperate search for water & pasture will intensify clashes, livestock raids, banditry and social unrest.
Education – children schooling affected distance and poor performance
Drought preparedness
Drought is a slow onset disaster,It is relatively easy to tell when one is
coming and can plan for intervention measures.
Measures include:Preparedness and contingency planningMitigation and Relief - to reduce the
impacts Recovery activities to restore social
dignity
Early Warning System
Provides timely, reliable drought status information used in decision making and response planning at national, district and community levels
Importance of EWS
Information on current status (stage) of drought
Information on risk of food insecurity or humanitarian emergency
Information on risk of loses Recommendations for necessary actions
at each stage of drought and/or Risk level
Indicators MonitoredEnvironmental indicators (Stability Indicators)
Rainfall performance Condition of Natural Vegetation and
Pasture Water Sources and Availability and Access
Rural economy indicators (Food Availability) Food Production from households
(livestock and crops) Availability of food commodities in the
market
Access to food
Prices of food commoditiesCrops – maize, beans, posho, riceLivestock – main species cattle, goats, sheep and camel.
Income from crops, livestock, and others
Welfare IndicatorsNutrition StatusHealth statusCoping strategies – CSITerms of tradeOngoing interventions
What is monitored Each quantitative indicator is analyzed by:
Sentinel site, LZ, Division, District
Compare:
Trends
Deviations from normal or average
Long term average and current situation
Assign Drought Status
January to mid-March
Short dry spell
Mid-March to May
Long rains -unreliable
June to Mid-October
Long dry spell
Mid-October to December
Short rains - reliable
Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods
High temperatures,livestock migration,herd separation,livestock marketing,land preparation , harvesting , dry p[lanting,
Pasture surveys, mating, planting, weeding, selection &breeding of livestocktraditional ceremonies, Weaving,restocking of livestock,
High labour demand.
High temperatures, windy, and dusty, calving, kidding, harvesting, migration, marketing, land preparation,Destocking, culling, pasture &browse surveys, caravan water treking,
Restocking of livestock, Breeding, planting , green harvest, crafts and weaving, calving and kidding period
Mixed farming and marginal agriculture livelihoods
Short rain harvestLand preparations, planting, weeding, harvesting,
Planting, weeding, Lambing and kidding
long rains harvest (green and dry) in June to July,Land preparation - September
Land preparation, planting, weeding, Lambing , calving and kidding
Seasonal Calendar
Illustration of droughtRAINFALL DATA FOR LAMURIA STATION IN LAIKIPIA EAST.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
MONTH
RA
INF
AL
L IN
MM
MEAN AVERAGE 55 65 90 122 40 28 42 35 22 58 107 58
2009 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Fg 1:Namanga: Agro-Pastoral (Jan - Dec.'09)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1Jan
1Feb
1Mar
1Apr
1May
1Jun
1Jul
1Aug
1Sep
1Oct
1Nov
1Dec
Month/Dekad
NDVI
051015202530354045505560
Rainfall (mm)
RFERFEavg
NDVI_09NDVIavg
Laikipia Kajiado
KilifiKajiado
Illustration of drought- RFE maps
ALALE
SIGOR
KASEI
KACHELIBA
SOOK
KONGELAI
CHESEGONCHEPARERIA
LELANTAPACH
KAPENGURIA
August Rainfall (mm)0 - 1010 - 2020 - 4040 - 8080 - 120120 - 160160 - 200200 - 250>250mmNo Data
Divisional Boundary
10 0 10 20 30 Kilometers
N
Current Average Rainfall DistributionWest Pokot - August 2009
Turkana
Baringo
MarkwetTransNzoia
Uganda
ALALE
SIGOR
KASEI
KACHELIBA
SOOK
KONGELAI
CHESEGONCHEPARERIA
LELANTAPACH
KAPENGURIA
10 0 10 20 30 Kilometers
N
Longterm Average Rainfall DistributionWest Pokot - August
Turkana
Baringo
MarkwetTransNzoia
Uganda
Longterm RFE (mm)0 - 1010 - 2020 - 4040 - 8080 - 120120 - 160160 - 200200 - 250>250mmNo Data
Divisional Boundary
Effects of drought
Maize crop under moisture stress
current average maize price vs average price (200 - 008)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
months
pric
e (
ksh
s)
Avg 2000-: 19 16 16 15 18 19 20 19 18 20 21 20
2009 33 33 35 42 43 44 48 48
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
current average beans price vs average price (200 - 008)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
months
pric
e (
ksh
s)
Avg 2000-: 47 47 52 51 52 54 57 54 48 47 47 46
2009 78 82 86 86 90 91 88 90
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
A dry river Bed
Elephants scooping water from a dry river bed
Severe Drought
Livestock watering in a drying river bed
Early Effects of Drought
A shared water source for livestock and humans
The water is untreated but consumed directly
Water point in North Eastern Kenya
Boreholes must work throughout, 18-24hrsWomen and children waiting for water
-Women trekking from water points-Long distances and long waiting hours at water points and untreated water
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD RETURN DISTANCE TO WATER SOURCES,COMPARED TO NORMAL SITUATION AS AT AUGUST 2009
,KAJ IADO DISTRICT.
0 5 10 15 20 25
Boreholes and Shal low
wel l s
Spr ings
Pipel ines
DISTANCE IN KMS
Normal Kms to the source
Average Kms to the watersource
WATER SOURCES AND PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD USING THEM, COMPARED TO A NORMAL SITUATION AS AT
AUGUST 2009
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Boreholes& Shallow
wells
Rivers & springs
pipelines
Dams &Pans
PERCENTAGE OF HH DEPENDING ON THE SOURCE
% of households that dependon the source normally
% of households depending onthe source
Water availability, distances, waiting time at source changed Increased dependence and pressure on permanent water sources
AVERAGE RETURN DISTANCES TO WATER SOURCES COMPARED TO NORMAL
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
J AN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
J UN
J UL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
DISTANCE IN KMS
2009
YEAR 2005-2008
Wildlife grazing alongside livestock
-A source of human–wildlife conflict-Encounters with fierce wild animals-Self defense and loss of life
ALALE
SIGOR
KASEI
KACHELIBA
SOOK
KONGELAICHESEGON
CHEPARERIA
LELANTAPACH
KAPENGURIA
Map showing Livestock Concentration Against Rainfall Distribution in August 2009
August Rainfall (mm)0 - 1010 - 2020 - 4040 - 8080 - 120120 - 160160 - 200200 - 250>250mmNo Data
Livestock ConcetrationsDivisional Boundary
40 0 40 Kilometers
N
Uganda
Turkana
Baringo
Marakwet
Trans Nzoia
No Rainfall RecordedLivestock Deaths Reported
Increased Movementof LivestockHigh Insecurity
-Migration towards common dry season grazing sites.
-Potential hazards include:Encounter with diseases, conflict, raiders, and prolonged family separation ,
Livestock concentration sites in West Pokot district
Severe drought effects on livestock
Loss of income, livelihood,Pastoralist dropouts,Public health problem
-Land preparation using oxen plough
-Feeding & restocking necessary
A livestock market
AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES FROM VARIOUS HOUSE HOLDS ACROSS THE LAIKIPIA RENGION
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
MONTH
PR
ICE
S IN
KS
H P
ER
AN
IMA
L
Average price for 2003 to 2005 9000 9506 15000 14000 10000 11000 7100 9708 9456 8350 8900 7575
Average price for 2009 15000 15000 8167 8000 5000 4000 3500 4000
JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPT OCT NOV DEC
AVERAGE PRICE OF POSHO ACROSS THE DISRICTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MONTH
PR
ICE
PE
R K
G
AVERAGE PRICE OF POSHO FOR 2003 TO 2005 21 21 21 23 19 25 27 29 29 28 29 25
AVERAGE PRICE OF POSHO FOR 2009 35 39 41 43 43 43.6 43 50
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULYAUGUS
TSEPT OCT NOV DEC
AVERAGE GOAT PRICE ACROSS THE LAIKIPIA DISTRICTS.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
MONTH
KS
H
AVERAGE GOAT PRICE FROM 2003 TO 2005 1000 1000 1000 1053 1281 1231 1315 1216 1246 1304 1240 1000
AVERAGE GOAT PRICE FROM 2009 1500 1090 1229 1000 1000 700 650 700
JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPT OCT NOV DEC
Bad road conditions and insecurity hampers markets access
Increased number of children who are malnourished and at risk of Malnutrition
Improve IYCF, immunization, micro-nutrient supplementation, De-worming, improve access to health services, scale-up selective feeding programs.
A normal day
Experiencing childhood?
Current Nutriotion Status for Childern under 5 years vs Average Nutritional Status(2006-2008)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
% Ch
ildren
with
MUA
C < 1
35mm MUAC < 135 mm 2006 - 2008
MUAC < 135mm 2009
MUAC < 135 mm 2006 - 2008 12.15 10.9 10.5 11 13 15.5 17.45 18.15 21 22.75 22.5 22.55
MUAC < 135mm 2009 24.5 27.4 25.5 26.6 24.7 28.6 26.1 26.3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Concrete strategies for ASAL development
Devpnt of reliable water sourcesDevelopment of appropriate mechanisms for livestock
improvement, mgt and marketingAdoption of appropriate agricultural techniques (DTC,
Irrigation, Water harversting, Soil conservation), Capacity building at all levelsProvision of necessary infrastructure Conflict managent and resolutionImprove health and nutrition practices ( IYCF, primary
health care practices, SFP, micronutrient supplimemts.
Long term measuresEnhance sustainable development strategies beyond
survival and subsistence livelihood strategiesEmpowering communities so that they can
effectively identify, implement and sustain their development priorities.
Fostering an enabling enviroment through appropriate policy, advocacy and reaserch.
DSGs should ensure that there is interagency collaboration and genuine partnership in addressing community development and food security issues (GOK, UN agencies, NGOs, community organizations and leaders)
Effective preparedness and mitigation measures to reduce vulnerability and impact of natrural and man made shocks
Improve the effectiveness of response mechanisms
WHEN?