Dydd Gwener 6ed Ianowr 2012

Aging Populations

LO: to understand the demographic causes and effects

of ageing societies.

One word test

• A large proportion of the population over the age of 65 years old

Ngfl – Italy and Japan Pyramids

Italy (2000)

Describe the shape of the population pyramid for Italy

• Italy's 'pyramid' is similar to that of developed countries in Western Europe. It shows that:

• there is a relatively small number of people under the age of 20 (around 11million)

• there is a high number of people over the age of 60 (more than 13million)

• Italy recently became the first country in the world where the number of over 60s exceeded the under 20s. This poses a number of questions:

• Why has this happened? • What problems does it create? • What are the solutions?

Italy (2000)

How can you predict, from the shape of the population pyramid that Italy is having some kind of population crisis?

Dependent population- elderly and youthful population

Independent population- Working age

Age dependency ratio= elderly population (65+) working population (15-64)

Causes of lower birth rate

Potentially all countries will face an ageing population. Will it become a global problem?

Causes of higher life expectancy

• Why has the structure of some populations changed?• The change results from two processes:• older people are living longer • fewer babies are being born• Older people are living longer because of:• developments in medical science • improved health care provision• Fewer babies are being born because:• more women go out to work • educated women may choose to develop a career rather than raise a large

family • the age of marriage has increased • contraceptives are more easily available • there are changing lifestyles, where families prefer to have fewer children • in the past children contributed to the family's income - nowadays they're more

likely to be economic burdens • better health care means that people don't have to have large families to

ensure the survival of a few• These factors have led to a decrease in the EU fertility rate from 2.75 children

to each woman in the appropriate age group in the mid-1960s, to a current rate of 1.43 children per female. To maintain a stable population, a level of 2.1 is required. All across Europe fertility rates, and therefore populations, are decreasing.

TASKWaugh, pg

Take notes on

1) Causes of declining death rates and increased life expectancy (pg 359)

2) Replacement rate and when continents will reach zero growth (pg 358)

3) Causes of declining fertility rates (especially link between education – Brazil)

What obvious problems will a declining/ageing population bring?

‘Ageing population set to put strain on purse strings’

‘Defusing the pension time bomb’

‘Day of reckoning looms for Italy’s welfare system’

‘’Time bomb’’ alerts as death births tumble’Newspaper headlines 1995-2000

• Impact of a changing population• We've learned that across Europe there has been a drop in

fertility, leading to an ageing population. This can cause problems, and these problems can arise at both ends of the age structure.

• The increased population of older people means that:• there is an increased demand for health and social care • it becomes increasingly difficult for governments to provide

satisfactory pensions, which are ultimately funded by the working population

• The reduced numbers of babies and children means that:• there is less need for schools and school teachers • industries which provide products for children - for example

pram manufacturers - may suffer • in the longer term, companies may have difficulty recruiting

youthful workers

NGFL – Japan and Italy – Challenges and Solutions

Task• Read the newspaper article about Italy

• Italy is having a ‘baby crisis’. What is this crisis?

• List 5 changes happening in Vastrogirardi as it gets smaller

• Give three reasons why Italy’s birth rate is falling so rapidly

• Describe and explain three different effects on Italy if the population structure changes in all villages

                 

Solutions

1. Pro-natalist policies (see next slide)

2. Discouraging early retirement

3. Workers set up independent pension funds

4. Change mindset of employers to value elderly labour force e.g. B+Q.

• Possible solutions• These are some of the issues, but are there any

solutions? The statement from the MSP that 'Scots should be paid to breed' suggests that the use of financial incentives is one possible solution. The Singapore government has launched a pro-natalist campaign, and hopes to increase the birth rate by:

• giving financial inducements for third children • giving paid maternity leave • providing state-funded child care centres• Whether these incentives would make any difference in

Western Europe is debatable. The alternative option, tried in a number of countries experiencing a labour shortage, is to encourage immigration.

Pro-natalist Policies

1. In Nazi Germany, Hitler awarded medals to the mothers of three or more children.

2. The small village of Laviano, south-east of Naples, was running so short of babies in 2003 that mayor Rocco

Falivena offered the equivalent of £7,000 to anyone who produces one.

3. The French government is worried by the reluctance of successful professional women to have many children. As

a result, middle-class mothers in France could now be paid up to €1,000 (£675) a month - almost the minimum

wage - if they stop work for a year and have a third child. 4. Singapore's 'Baby Bonus' savings scheme where the

state saves on behalf of the parents of a child in order to help fund its education.

Task

• Take notes of Singapore’s family planning policy – Waugh pg 358

Task

Take notes from newspaper article read by Miss

“Welcome to the aging future”

Advantages of an ageing population1. Taking up new interests and fuelling a boom in

leisure industry.

2. Travel to LEDCs which help LEDCs make money.

3. Society and politics adapting to interests of older people

4. Elderly are law abiding. Less need for police and prisons.

5. Voice for elderly

6. Bring children and parents closer together- longer adult relationship

7. Sustainable future

Debate

• debate the motion that ‘a high proportion of elderly people in an area represent an asset not a burden’.

Past Paper Question

• Explain what factors may affect the age structure of a population (10 marks)

Key words• Explain = why• Factors = reasons = birth and death rates +

migration + LEDC/MEDC + culture/religion• Age structure = make up of the population by

age – youthful/aging

• Name specific countries as examples

Past Paper Question

• Outline the implications of a large proportion of the population being of a certain age group (10 marks)

People over state pension age: by area, April 2001, United Kingdom

• The Local Authority Districts with a high proportion of people above state pension age (more than 20 per cent) are concentrated in Wales and Cornwall, and along the coastal areas of the country.

Three Local Authority Districts had over 30 per cent of people above state pension age in 2001: Christchurch, in the South West (33 per cent), Rother, in the South East (32 per cent), and East Devon (30 per cent).

The areas with low proportions of older people are in Northern Ireland and in London. Of the seven Local Authority Districts with less than 12 per cent of people above state pension age in 2001, five were in London and two in Northern Ireland.

These differences in geographic distribution are thought to be due, in part, to many older people choosing to leave congested urban areas to settle in coastal and rural destinations. On the other hand, urban and surrounding areas draw younger people due to employment opportunities and other reasons.

Additionally, major cities like London have a high proportion of people from non-White minority ethnic groups, who have a younger age structure than the overall population. Northern Ireland has higher fertility than Great Britain overall, so its age structure is younger.