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E-Truck Task Force:Draft Findings, Recommendations
Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM Bill Van Amburg, Senior Vice President
Whitney Pitkanen, Project Manager
Jean-Baptiste Gallo, Assoc Project Manager
HTUF 2011 Conf BriefingBaltimore, MD
October 11, 2011
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Agenda
• Overview E-Truck Task Force – Goals, Initial Timeline, Status
• E-TTF Draft Findings, Recommendations– Including Business Case Planner;
Infrastructure Planning Guide
• Fleet Experience Panel
• Battery Lease Panel
• Next Steps Discussion
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CALSTART
CALSTART is a unique national, non-profit, advanced transportation technologies organization.
Founded in 1992 as a public-private partnership to launch and grow a clean transportation industry that will:
• Create high-quality jobs;• Clean the air;• Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and• Reduce global warming emissions
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Commercial Vehicle ActivitiesCALSTART works with all vehicle types, including 2-3-wheel, light-duty cars/pickups, off-road – but these are our commercial-focused projects
• National program and conf to speed hybrid and advanced truck commercialization funded by and in partnership with US Army
• $43M incentive program – purchase vouchers – for hybrid and electric trucks funded by CARB, CEC
• Hybrid, Efficient and Advanced Truck Center to focus and drive effective R&D funded by California Energy Commission
• National program to validate, speed fuel cell & low carbon bus technology with DOT/FTA
• National conference on clean fuels and tech for trucks, partnership with NTEA
• Purchase cooperative for natural gas cars and MD/HD trucks
• Fleet action group to speed clean vehicle deployments
• HTAG- Industry-fleet policy advocacy group for hybrid, electric and advanced trucks
• Task Force targeting barriers to e-trucks
Fleet Action for Clean Transportation (FACT)
E-TTF (E-Truck Task Force)HTAG Hybrid, Electric & Advanced Truck
Action Group
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Electric Trucks
Navistar/Modec Smith
CapacityFreightliner Custom Chassis
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E-Trucks
EVI US Hybrid
Zero Truck
Balqon
Vision Industries
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E-Trucks in HTUF
• Key emerging segment – but many questions about best use, business case
• Have created E-Truck Task Force for Users, Manufacturers– Identify barriers, business case, core needs
to grow• Report findings, recommendations, joint
actions at HTUF 2011
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Goal of Task Force
• The overall goal of this effort is to speed and support effective E-Truck production and use. In the short term, it will specifically: – Identify key issues/barriers that need targeting; – Develop an action plan for addressing those issues; and
then – Work to implement those recommendations with industry
and public partners.
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E-TTF Goals/Targets
• The Task Force targeted the following issues to both understand and quantify the challenges, speed E-Truck uptake via action steps to target and solve barriers. – Identify key market and tech barriers– Identify fleet user needs– Identify and quantify industry development and production needs– Quantify benefits and better validate business case– Identify fueling/charging issues and needs– Highlight best duty cycles, ways to deploy vehicles and cases for
success– Collect and report current validated data on performance– Collect and outline expected price points for future volumes– Recommend action steps to address key barriers identified– Report out these findings; including at a special session at HTUF conf
in Fall
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Initial Survey Results
• Roughly 200 responses • Nearly 30% fleet users in survey
responders– 14% vehicle manufacturers– 26% suppliers
• Interest: More than 125 willing to take part in Task Force– 72 registered for first meeting
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Initial Survey Results
• Major Areas We Reviewed:– Perception– Performance/Operation– Business Case– Manufacturing Issues– Overall Barriers– Incentives
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Task Force Members
Tim Smith, City of Burbank
Jeff Kessen, A123 Systems
John Mikulin , EPA
Nam Thai-Tang, ALTe
Cedric Daniels, Southern Company
Joe Steinberger, BAAQMD
Matt Stewart, City of Chicago
Susan McSherry, NY City DOT
Dean Magistrale, Coca-Cola
Joy Sharma, Amphenol
John Scharffbillig, City of Minneapolis
Glenn Keller, Argonne Natl Lab
Karen Zolna, Prestolite
Niklas Thulin, Volvo
Andrew Meyer, Remy
Stuart Irwin, EDN Group
Brian Pepper, PG&E
Kevin Silbert, MAPC
Tedd Abramson, Zero Truck
George Karbowski, Foothill Transit
Summer Pennino, EVI
Tom Yamaguchi, International Rectifier
Trina Martynowicz, EPA
Mark Kachmarski, Zero Truck
Emelio Garcia, CSS
James Larson, PG&E
Jasna Tomic, CALSTART
Michael Miles, Kers Tech
Anthony Bizjak, Fairfax County
Ron Demick, R.L. Polk
Rudy Tapia, Vision Motor Corp
William Nash, Azure Dynamics
Mira Inbar, Dow Kokam
Duane Woods, Safeway
Sam Waltzer, EPA
David Park, MJ Bradley
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Task Force Members
Maria Redmond, State of Wisconsin
Terry Zdan. Province of Manitoba
Mark O'Connell, State of Wisconsin
Doug Ryder, MTC Kenworth
Jesse Shroyer, Smith Electric
Jim Potter, ZF
James Trask, Azure Dynamics
Earl Bloom, Dow Kokam
JJ Livingstone, A123 Systems
Jeffrey Patterson, Belco
Andrew Thomas, FZ Sonick
Rich Serio, Zero Truck
Tom Welsh, Long Island Power
Matt Guilfoyle. Daimler
Dennis Kulzer, City of Ventura
Dale Morin, UPS
John Dabels, EV Power Systems
Jeff Gettys, Zapworld
Michael Mayor, Mayor Logistics
Jamie Hall, CALSTART
Mark Greer, Altec
Joshua Goldman, Proterra
Jordan Smith, SCE
Paul B. Scott, TransPower
Jim Reynolds, A-Z Bus Sales
Dave Navey, Centralina Clean Fuels
Sandor Lau, CSS
Neilesh Mutyala, Seeo
Todd Morganson, ITC Truck
Steve Trindad, Automotive Tech Group
David Mazaika, Quantum Technology
Kelvin Kohatsu, Hawaii Electric Light Co
Jim Castelaz, Motiv
Andy Sleeman, Amphenol
Rick Teebay, LA County
Martin Schuermann, Vision Motor Corp
Anny Pachner, GNA
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E-TTF Timeline
• Initial issues Survey: April-May• First meeting – review, priorities: June 9
– Provide initial incentive feedback to ARB, CEC, Air Districts
• Parallel Track Meetings – through summer– Fleet: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks or so– Industry: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks
• Draft Findings – First Recommendations: August/September
• Work Shop on Recommended Actions – October 11 – Baltimore, MD HTUF Conf
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Draft Key Findings to Date
Vehicle Cost/Price are Top Issues/Barriers
- Production/battery costs; need for incentives
- 50% (or greater) funding of incremental cost needed
- Costs do show decline over time
Vehicle Quality/Support Needs to Improve Validation of Performance and Business Case are
Key Gaps Infrastructure is a Surprise to Fleets and Important
Next Tier Issue Better Guidance on Vehicle Placement, Use
Needed
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Costs
• Vehicle cost is key component of business case and purchase decision– Other key components of business case are
vehicle utilization, battery replacement, infrastructure cost
– Vehicle cost is projected to decrease over next 5 – 10 years; cost decrease alone may not be fully sufficient to make business case
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What Would Cause Increased Purchases? Overall
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Barriers Response Analysis
1. Incremental Cost – 43%
2. Operational Issues – 20%
• Range limitations• Horse power • Loss of payload
3. Difficulty in assessing baseline, payback and total lifecycle cost – 14%
• Battery life and replacement cost• Unproven technology concerns
4. Charging Infrastructure – 13%
• Lack of infrastructure• Cost• Speed of charging
5. Lack of product availability and education on products – 10%
Key Purchase Barriers
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For Purchase: Why or Why Not?
Why? • if grant funding or price concessions are available• to improve environmental image• due to WA state law requiring govt entities to switch to EV’s
Why not?• Need to verify range, lifecycle costs, and ROI • Observing early adopters first• Concerned about reliability• Prefer hybrids• Cost is too prohibitive• Not sure what is available• Waiting until economy improves• Not until fuel costs increase
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Price Expectations
11-20% lower
21-30% lower
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Desired Level of Incentives
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Ways to Address
• Improved engineering and production design• Expanded volumes and supply chain
– Volume purchase cooperatives
• Battery leasing (remove battery cost from purchase price, add to operational cost) – fleets would like to see this option– Also reduces risk of purchase to user (low cost
extended warranty period would also reduce risk)
• Reduced battery sizes (customized to use)– But in short term may not help business case enough
• Incentives for early market– Need to cover 50%+ of vehicle incremental cost
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Draft Recommendations
• Call on vehicle and battery industry to institute battery leasing model for E-trucks
• Maintain or increase R&D and demonstration of hybrid and electric technology for trucks with focus on reduced system costs
• Seek support incentives – ideally purchase vouchers – for roughly half of E-Truck incremental costs
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Quality and Support
• Early vehicles have very low reliability/ availability– While fleets understand this for now – but it MUST
improve quickly
• Initial quality control low• Service and parts support often delayed
– Parts not in local supply; service network not built out
• High failure rates coupled with slow parts and support means fleets stuck with out of service vehicles for longer than anticipated times
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What Needs AttentionOverall
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What Needs AttentionDetail
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Draft Recommendations
• Call on vehicle and battery industry to link sales expansion to adequate support and parts network
• Call on vehicle manufacturers to increase quality control checks before delivery
• Encourage fleets to require service turn-around minimums before purchase
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Performance and Business Case
• Fleets need better validation data of the performance of E-trucks in real-world use– Want data on reliability #1; range #2; battery life/
replacement #3; maintenance #4; energy use; infrastructure costs
• Fleets expect 10 year battery life – battery makers say 6-8 highly likely depending on use profile, thermal management, recharge rates (level 2)
• Fleets want longer range in most cases; but a good percentage would like to see a small battery/shorter range option IF it meaningfully cuts vehicle costs
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Performance and Business Case
• Business case main variables are purchase price, fuel displacement– Battery replacement also a key worry to business case
• High utilization (or high fuel offset), known route, return to base fleets ideal
• Infrastructure a higher cost than anticipated for multi-vehicle fleets
• Fleets need better guidance and data on key aspects of real-world business case– Value proposition based on maximum fuel
displacement, reducing purchase and install costs
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What Drives the Business Case Overall
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Best Use for Business CaseFleet & OEM Conversations
To get sufficient payback, need to drive maximum miles possible (or maximum use of energy)• Dedicated, return-to-base routes with known daily mileage highly
valuable
High Utilization/Daily miles (5-7 days a week) seems important
70-100 miles/day seems like an initial “sweet spot” for fuel savings payback (sufficient miles to generate fuel savings needed)
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(4) What Data on Real-World E-Truck Use do you Most Want to See?:
(1 is most important, 10 is least – mean results below)
– Vehicle range/charge: 3– Vehicle energy use/mile: 4.2– Reliability/Uptime: 1.8– Maintenance costs: 4– Real infrastructure installation costs: 5.8– Battery failure/replacement/life: 3.6– Other failure modes: 6.3– Successful applications/fleet success stories: 7.5– Other: operation in snow and ice with road chemicals
Performance Validation Data
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Battery / Component Common Approaches
Battery Life: • Based on the following standard use profiles for e-trucks, how
long do you anticipate battery life to extend? (Assume once a day charging at Level 2). – 70 mile/day fixed route suburban delivery:
• Energy Storage Providers: 3-5 years (33%), 5-8 years (33%), 10 years (33%)• Industry: 5-8 years (25%), 8 years (50%),10 years (25%),
– 80% daily battery discharge work site vehicle (e.g., utility truck):• Energy Storage Providers: 4-6 years (33%), 5-7 years (33%), 10 years (33%)• Industry: 5 years (22%), 7 years (11%), 8-10 years (55%), 12 years (11%)
– 20 mile/day urban driving:• Energy Storage Providers: 7-10 years (33%), 8-10 years (33%), 10 years (33%)• Industry: 4-6 years (37%), 10 years (50%), 15 years (12%)
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Battery Cost:• How much do you anticipate it will it cost to replace batteries
in the following years (installed pack per kwh): – 2015:
• Energy Storage Providers: $500/kWh (50%), $600/kWh (50%)• Industry: $270-300/kWh (33%), $450 kWh (16%), $1,500/kWh (50%)
– 2020:• Energy Storage Providers: $450/kWh • Industry: $200 - $230/kWh (33%), $350/kWh (16%), $1,000/kWh (50%)
– 2025: • Energy Storage Providers: $300/kWh• Industry: $100-175/kWh (33%), $300/kWh (16%), $500/kWh (16%),
$750/kWh (33%)
Battery / Component Common Approaches
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Draft Recommendations
• Create and circulate draft GENERAL business case guide
• Recommend adopting common “use profiles” as basis of business case assumptions, battery life guarantees
• Create and circulate GENERAL infrastructure planning guide
• Create a clearinghouse for fleet in-use data sharing on E-trucks
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Infrastructure
• Level 2 charging most common for fleets• Most fleets plan to charge once per day, over
night (some considering fast charge)• Most single truck deployments will get power at
service shop; however, plans are to take power to where vehicles normally park
• Fleets say are not getting good guidance from vehicle vendors on what infrastructure needs and costs are
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Infrastructure
• Average EVSE simple, single install $3300 (usually at a building); fleets say often higher
• Installing conduit to take power to truck locations can cost $8-10,000 or more
• Demand charge is key issue – time of charge can push facility over its core demand load and cost much more money
• No existing EV charge rate for commercial sites (though Time of Use – TOU – rates exist)
• Fleets may need new costly electrical service expansion to accommodate demand from 3-5 more vehicles
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Draft Recommendations
• Create and circulate GENERAL infrastructure planning guide
• Work to create a commercial EV charge rate• Eliminate or reduce demand charge for
commercial EV charging (if timed to protect the grid)
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E-TTF Infrastructure Decision Guidelines for Fleets
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Vehicle Placement, Use
• Value proposition is based on maximum fuel offset
• Must deploy vehicles in use profiles that support this proposition• Dedicated, return-to-base routes with known daily
mileage highly valuable• High Utilization/Daily miles (5-7 days a week) is
important• 70-100 miles/day (or equivalent energy use) seems
like an initial “sweet spot” for fuel savings payback (sufficient miles to generate fuel savings that offset purchase price)
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Best Use / Duty CyclesGeneral
1. Fixed route applications - 70%• Stop and go• Localized, dedicated routes• Short haul• Limited range• ‘Spoke and hub’• Urban Delivery, Refuse, Mail trucks, Transit Buses
2. Facility vehicles – 19%• Airports, seaports, railyards, military bases, parks, resorts• Warehouse support and maintenance• Cargo handling
3. High idle, work site applications – 11%• Aerial devices• PTO • Utility vehicles
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What Drives the Business Case Overall
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What Drives the Business Case by Respondent
Critical
Unimportant
Slightly Important
Important
Very Important
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Draft Recommendations
• Create and circulate GENERAL business case planning guide
• Create joint info/data documents and tools highlighting best use profiles and agree to use across E-truck industry
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Overall Recommendations
• COST– Call on vehicle and battery industry to institute battery leasing
model for E-trucks– Maintain/increase R&D and demonstration of hybrid and
electric technology for trucks with focus on reduced system costs
– Seek support incentives – ideally purchase vouchers – for roughly half of E-Truck incremental costs
• QUALITY/SERVICE– Call on vehicle and battery industry to link sales expansion to
adequate support and parts network– Call on vehicle manufacturers to increase quality control
checks before delivery– Encourage fleets to require service turn-around minimums
before purchase
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Overall Recommendations
• BUSINESS CASE/PERFORMANCE– Create and circulate draft GENERAL business case guide – Recommend adopting common “use profiles” as basis of business case
assumptions, battery life guarantees – Create a clearinghouse for fleet in-use data sharing on E-trucks
• INFRASTRUCTURE– Create and circulate GENERAL infrastructure planning guide– Work to create a commercial EV charge rate– Eliminate or reduce demand charge for commercial EV charging (if timed to
protect the grid)
• VEHICLE PLACEMENT/USE– Create joint info/data documents and tools highlighting best use profiles and
agree to use across E-truck industry
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• Questions?
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Fleet Experience
• Mike Britt, UPS– Dir., Maintenance and Engineering, Ground Fleet
• Claude Masters, Florida Power and Light– Manager, Fleet Acquisition and Fuel, Florida Power
and Light
• Judge McKenney, FedEx Express– Vehicle Engineer
• Christopher Trajkovski, Frito-Lay– National Fleet Sustainability Manager
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Battery Lease
• Jim Castelaz, Motiv Power Systems– CEO
• Gitajali DasGupta, Electrovaya– Director, Electric Vehicle Division
• Steve Wollenberg, Automatiks– Co-founder and VP of Business Development
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• www.calstart.org/Projects/E-Truck-Project.aspx
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E-TTF Next?
• Initial issues Survey: April-May• First meeting – review, priorities: June 9
– Provide initial incentive feedback to ARB, CEC, Air Districts
• Parallel Track Meetings – through summer– Fleet: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks or so– Industry: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks
• Draft Findings – First Recommendations: August/September
• CIRCULATING DOCUMENTS FOR COMMENT BY 9-30-11
• Work Shop on Recommended Actions – October 11 – Baltimore, MD HTUF Conf
• POLICY ACTION – INDUSTRY ACTION
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Hybrid, Electric and Advanced Truck Action Group (HTAG)
• Industry-supported, CALSTART-managed advocacy group working to recommend and secure hybrid, electric and advanced truck policies and incentives to speed commercialization
• Briefings for Congress, support for tax credits, truck R&D, vouchers
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Next Steps
• Work to push key policy, funding recommendations via HTAG
• Link with utilities and utility industry groups (EEI, others) on Commercial EV charge rate
• On-going E-Truck strategy working group?
Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM
www.calstart.org
For info contact:
Bill Van Amburg(626) 744-5600bvanamburg@calstart.org
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• Backup Slides
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Ranking of preferred performance parameters
(1 is most important, 10 is least – mean results below)
– Lifecycle costs less than or equal to diesel: 2.6– Long range (80-120 miles/charge): 2.8– Small battery/short range option (20-50 miles): 9– Freeway capable speed (65 mph) : 4.6 – No operational change to driver: 4.8– No decreased payload capacity: 4.6– Reliability equal to or better than diesel: 1.4– Significant fuel cost savings: 5.2– Maintenance costs 50% better diesel: 4.6– Other (please specify): On-board data recorders, weight of
vehicle, attachment of devices
Performance Validation Data
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Benefits of E-Trucks Overall
Critical
Unimportant
Slightly Importan
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Important
Very Important
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Benefits of E-Trucks by Respondent
Critical
Unimportant
Slightly Important
Important
Very Important