Early Warning System

on Natural Disasters

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Simposium Maklmat Geospatial Kebangsaan Ke-5

21 & 22 Mei 2012, Dewan B, Pusat Konvensyen Antarabangsa Putrajaya (PICC)

2

SCOPE

Natural Hazards Affecting Malaysia

Early Warning System for Risk Management

Multi Hazard Early Warning System at MMD

Weather & Climate Extremes

Earthquakes & Tsunamis

Concluding Remarks

3

Natural hazards affecting

Malaysia

Natural Hazards affecting Malaysia

Weather related Hazards

– Floods from heavy monsoonal rain

– Flash floods

– Severe thunderstorms / lightning

– Tropical cyclones / typhoons

– Strong Winds and rough seas

– Forest fires

– Severe haze

– Agricultural droughts

Geophysical Hazards

– Earthquakes

– Tsunamis

– Landslides

– Volcanic Eruptions

Severe Weather in Malaysia

Northeast Monsoon (Nov – Mac)

Southwest Monsoon (Jun – Aug)

Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sep-Oct)

Flood

Haze

Flash Flood

Strong Wind and Rough Sea

Among the Extreme Weather Events in Pen. Malaysia: 2005 - 2009

e.g.

The abnormal severe floods

over Peninsular Malaysia

during winter monsoon of

2006/2007 and 2007/2008

Among the Extreme Weather Events in Sabah & Sarawak: 2010 - 2011

Flashflood, Mukim Dalit,

Pensiangan, Jan 2011

Strong winds, Kanowit,

Nov 2010

Flood, Long Lama, Miri

Nov 2010

Flashflood, Kota Kinabalu

Mac 2011

Flood, Lahad Datu, 28 Jan

2011

Flood, Kidurong, Bintulu,

Jan 2010

Recent Severe Thunderstorm Event on 17 February 2011 in Petaling Jaya & Subang Jaya

Jalan Universiti,

Petaling Jaya

Sek. Keb. Methodist,

Sec 5, PJ

Jalan

Kewajipan,

Subang

Jaya

Among the Water Spout Events: 2006 - 2010

Kudat, 2006 Miri, April 2010

Jejawi, Perlis,

October 2010 Pulau Tioman,

June 2009

Tanjung Bungah,

Penang,

July 2007

Malacca, November

2010

Pulau Pinang, 2010 Bkt. Kriang, Kedah,

Mac 2011

Weather Extremes uring Southwest Monsoon

Jerebu, 1997

Sg. Sembrong,

2010

Kelantan, 2010

Sarawak, 2009

Muar, 2010

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Earthquake Activities

Around Malaysia (1959 ~ 2004)

12

TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES

ON 26 DECEMBER 2004

1

2

Phuket : 2.0 hrs

Langkawi : 3.0 hrs

Balik Pulau : 4.0 hrs

B. Feringghi : 4.4 hrs

Kuala Muda : 4.5 hrs

Jln. Gurney : 4.5 hrs

Bagan Datok : 5.5 hrs

Sabak Bernam : 6.0 hrs

13

Earthquakes:

Plate Boundaries Southeast Asia Region

14

Early Warning System for

Risk Management

risk management

crisis management

Reconstruction

Recovery Response

Impact

Assessment

Mitigation

Preparedness Prediction and

Early Warning

Disaster

16

A weakness or failure in any one of these

elements could result in the failure of the

whole system.

FOUR main elements of

“People-Centered Early Warning Systems”

Dissemination

& Communication

Communicate

Risk Information

and

Early Warnings

Response

Capabilities

Building National

and Community

Response

Capabilities

Monitoring and

Warning Service

Develop Hazard

Monitoring and

Early Warning

Services

Risk Knowledge

Systematically

Collect Data and

Undertake Risk

Assessments

17

Warnings must be produced

Warning message must be transmitted & received

Information must be understood

Information must be confirmed

Message must be believed

Risk must be personalised

Decision to take appropriate defensive and preparatory

actions

Resources and capacity for preparatory action

Early Warning Systems Requirements

18

Multi- Hazard Early Warning System at MMD

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Integrated

Early Warning System at MMD

Weather monitoring, prediction, &

warning

Sea state monitoring, prediction &

warning

Earthquake monitoring & tsunami early

warning system

RESPONSE CAPACITY COMMUNICATION & DISSEMINATION

MONITORING & WARNING SYSTEM

RISK KNOWLEDGE

People-centered Early Warning Systems

For Weather, Sea-State & Tsunamis

Malaysian Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Since 2005

TSUNAMI

FLOOD

SEVERE WEATHER

FOREST FIRE

VOLCANO

SMS & Cell Broadcasting

Fixed Lines Disaster Alert System

Siren

Printed Media

TV & Radio

MULTI-HAZARD

EARLY WARNING

CENTRE

AT MMD

DISSEMINATION

SMS & Emails

TV Crawlers (Hotline between MMD & RTM)

Mini TV broadcast studio at MMD

Telefax

Website

Fixed Line Alert System (FLAS)

Tsunami Sirens

WEATHER MONITORING, FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM

Data Dissemination

Computer Processing

Facilities and

Forecasting Model

Weather Forecast

Warning

Mass MediaGeneral PublicPublic Organizations

Receive and Action

Ensemble prediction system

Multi-model and single

model ensembles

Deteministic models

Decision

support

system

Decision support

tools

Assesments

Observing

system

Satellite

In situ

Social

decisions

Economical

decisions

Environmental

decisions

Weather forecasts

Data

Data

assimilation

system

Security

decisions

End-to-end Weather & Climate forecast system require decision support tools to enhance applications

Import

ance

Day Week Month Season Year

Average Time Scale

Thunderstorms

Typhoon

Tropical disturbances

Intra-seasonal

2-Week 3-Month

El Nino/ La Nina

Predictability

of short &

medium-

range weather

forecast

Predictability

of seasonal

and yearly

forecast

Constraint: Short, Medium-range & Seasonal Predictibility

Future (<1.0 km) Existing (4-km res.)

T/flops ≡ Trillion

Floating Points

Operations per

Second

Local (sub-district) Level Weather Forecast:

Needs Very High Resolution Numerical

Weather Prediction (NWP) Modelling System

Tahap Semasa Keupayaan JMM Dalam Memberikan Perkhidmatan

Global Framework For Climate Services (GFCS)

29

Multi- Hazard Early Warning System at MMD

Earthquakes & Tsunamis

EARTHQUAKES:

MONITORING SEISMIC ACTIVITIES

17 seismic stations

31

10 min

Timeline

TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Coastal Points (99 points)

- Bathymetry water depth ~ 1 m Forecast Points (99 points)

- Bathymetry water depth ~ 50 m

Tsunami Modeling & Database

(Mw)

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

Depth (km)

0

20

40

60

MMD also monitor the sea level at 37 sites in the

Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean

MNTEWC

TSUNAMIS: TIDE GAUGE

FOR SEA LEVEL MONITORING

17 Sites: transmission of

data every 1 min.

MONITORING (COASTAL CAMERA)

18 Sites

To improve weather & climate extremes, sea state and tsunami

early warning services for societal well being, we need:

Higher accuracy of weather & climate forecasts at local level;

shorter timeline with accuracy of tsunami warning after

earthquake occurrence;

awareness programmes (drills, table=top exercises &

awareness campaigns) for both tsunamis and weather

extremes;

better coordination between disaster management agencies;

and

Better risk assessments.

Concluding Remarks

Thank You