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7/31/2019 East-timor Rail Master Plan
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PRESENTED BY
LAFAEK BESI LDA.DEVELOPMENT COMPANYDili, Timor-Lestebesugao@yahoo.com
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 1/22
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EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 2/22
COV
A LI MA
AI NAR O
BOBONARO
LIQUI
A
DILI
AI LE U
MANUFAHI
MANATUTO
BAUCAU
VIQUEQUE
LAUTEM
ERMERA
OECUSSI
T
ata Mai Lau(2963 m)
Fohorem
FatolulicLoloto
Bobonaro
T
ilomar
Mape
Hato Builico
MaubisseLetetoho
Fatu Beso
Atabae
Bazar
tete
Railaco
Lacl
Laleia
Turiscai
Hatudo
Alas
Fato Berliu
Barique
LaclutaLaclubar
Umaboco
V
er
masse
Ossu
V
enilale
Laga
Quelicai
Uatolari
Baquia
Uato CarabauIliomar
Luro
Fuiloro
Ma
nal
N
tibe O
Silo
Er
meraAileu
Los Palos
V
iqueque
MalianaAinaro Same
S
e
i
c
a
l
L
a
c
l
o
C
i
e
r
e
S
a
h
e
n
Tim
or
Is
la
n
I N D O N E S I A
COVA LIMA
AI NAR O
BOBONARO
LIQUIA
DILI
AI LE U
MANUFAHI
MANATUTO
BAUCAU
VIQUEQUE
LAUTEM
ERMERA
OECUSSI
Fohorem
FatolulicLoloto
Bobonaro
Batugade
Tilomar
Mape
Hato Builico
MaubisseLetetoho
Fatu Beso
Atabae
Bazartete
Railaco
MetinaroLacl Laleia
Turiscai
HatudoBetano
Alas
Fato Berliu
Barique
LaclutaLaclubar
Umaboco
Maubara
Vermasse
Ossu
Venilale
BucliLaga
Quelicai
Uatolari
Aliambata
Baquia
Uato CarabauIliomar
Luro
LaivaiLautm
Fuiloro
Manal
Com
Lor
Tutuala
B Aco
Ntibe O SiloKitrana
Sacato
Passabe
Atauro
Biquele
Berau
Oecussi
Liquia
Ermera
Manatuto
Aileu
Baucau
Los Palos
Viqueque
Maliana
Suai
Ainaro Same
DILI
JacoIsland
AtauroIsland
RomangIsland
WetarIsland
AlorIsland
RantarIsland
Tim
or
Is
la
nd
I N D O N E S I A
I N D O N E S I A
Se
ica
l
Laclo
Ciere
Sa
hen
Timor Sea
Savu Sea
W et a r
S t ra i t
ToNaikliu
ToKualaLumpur
Cape Cutch
Cape Tei
Cape de Lor
CapeCorimbala
Cape Tafara
CapeCaltec
Cape Deilubn
Tata Mai Lau(2963 m)
124 125 126 127
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9
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8
124 125 126
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TIMOR-LESTE
This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other informationshown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World BankGroup, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or anyendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
0 10 20
0 10 20 30 Miles
30 Kilometers
IBRD
33496
JANUARY2005
T IMOR-LESTE
SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS
DISTRICT CAPITALS
NATIONAL CAPITAL
RIVERS
MAIN ROADS
DISTRICT BOUNDARIES
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES
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1. CAPTION
2. RATIONALE
3. NETWORK
4. TOURISM
5. ECONOMIC FRAME
6. DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME
7. COMPONENTS
8. FINANCE
9. COST ESTIMATES
10. SISTER PROJECTS
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 3/22
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CAPTION
A ONE-TRACK RAIL BACKBONE FOR THE REPUBLIC OF EAST-TIMOR, ELECTRICITY POWERED, TO HANDLE PASSENGER ANDCARGO TRAFFIC, AT MEDIUM SPEED.
THEME
Timor-Leste will be an upper-middle income country no laterthan 2030 ... The economy will be modern and well diversified ...Timor-Lestes tradition as a rural economy will have changed
markedly ... Well over half of the population will live in urbanareas, where the service economy flourishes
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 4/22
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RATIONALE
IT BEFALLS THE MAUBERE GOVERNMENTS THE DAUNTING TASK OF PROVIDINGBETTER THAN FREEDOM FROM WANT LIVING CONDITIONS TO A YOUNGPOPULATION THAT WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS, TO BRING ABOUTAN AMIABLE AND INTELLIGENT POLIS.
TO MAKE IT TO 2030 ONE NEEDS TO
1. FATHER ONE MILLION MORE PEOPLE
2. BUILD FROM SCRATCH ENTIRE BRAND NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS
3. PUT IN PLACE MASSIVE PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
AS FOR THE INVESTMENT, WE BEG TO OFFER A FRESH LINE OF THINKING:
RAIL INDUCED DEVELOPMENT
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 5/22
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THE OTHER ONE MILLION TIMORESE TO COME, BORN TO A DIFFERENT TIME ANDPACE, SHALL NOT BE UNEMPLOYED TOWNSHIP DWELLERS OR LIVE IN ISOLATEDRURAL SUCOS FED BY TRADITIONAL SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE. IN 2030, A FEWWILL BE FARMERS RATHER THAN PEASANTS, MANY MORE WILL WORK IN INDUSTRYAND SERVICES, LIVING IN HOUSING SPRAWLS SPREAD AROUND CITY CENTERSKNITTED TOGETHER BY THE CENTRAL TRUNK RAILROAD.
INFRASTRUCTURE WORKS THAT ARE LABOUR INTENSIVE ATRACT PEOPLE TO THEDEVELOPMENT AREAS WHERE OTHER JOBS WILL SOON BE ON OFFER FOR THEMAND THEIR BETTER EDUCATED CHILDREN.
INVESTMENT MONIES TRICKLE DOWN THE ECONOMY TO STIMULATE DEMAND,SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT, MOVING PEOPLE AND IDEAS TO A GENTLER URBAN WAYOF LIFE.
WE HAVE TO BUILD THE FOUNDATION OF THIS VISION TODAY.
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 6/22
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Roads play a vital role in the economy and country integration of Timor-Leste. Roadsare the primary mode of transport, carrying about 90% of passengers, and 70% offreight.
BUT (ADB Project nr. 45094-01)
Recent surveys indicate that almost the entire core road network is in an un-maintainable condition. Only about 8% of the core road network was assessed to bein fair condition, about 22% in poor condition, and about 70% in very poorcondition.
THEN, RAIL ...
1. Rail is more efficient as it reduces fuel consumption, is less environmentallypolluting, and shortens travel time as well as being safer.
2. Transporting cargo by rail is 6 times more efficient compared to road (i.e. railtrains consume 80% less fuel than trucks) and for passenger, rail is 20 times
more efficient.
3. Motive energy tapped from the national grid (powered by natural gas and hydrosites), which is much cleaner than diesel or petrol used in cars and trucks.
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 7/22
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...
4. The network allows for development to be more dispersed as people working incities can live outside. Better rail services will benefit lower income groups andrural communities.
5. A cost-benefit study conducted by an international consultant, for the ElectrifiedDouble Track Project (EDTP) from Ipoh to Padang Besar, in Malaysia, estimatedthe EDTP would yield an Economic Internal rate of Return (EIRR) of 15%, abovethe benchmark 12% for transport projects.
6. This EIRR assessment measures the economic benefits over the economic costsof the project at the National level, focusing on the long-term viability.
7. Spin-offs to local services and industries will have multiplier effects that willgreatly stimulate the economy (medium term GDP growth).
8. While the capital cost of electrifying track is high, electric trains andlocomotives are capable of higher performance and lower operational costs than
steam or diesel power. Electric locomotives, because they tend to be lesstechnically complex than diesel-electric locomotives, are both easier andcheaper to maintain and have extremely long working lives.
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 8/22
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NETWORK
CENTRAL LINE: BOBONARO - LOS PALOS
WEST LINE: CORRIDOR DILI-BETANO
EAST LINE: CORRIDOR BAUCAU - UATOLARI
to move people, crops, raw materials, parts and products in cheaper, faster andsafer conditions
to airlift cargo (land produce and industrial products) from Baucau to the world
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 9/22
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TOURISM
Lavish GSHOW*****1 train carriages negociate Timor scenic landscape to unfurlstaggering mountain expanses and wide tropical ocean views to world classtravelers.
On the way, a handful of boutique hotels sitting in unspoiled hideouts and historiccantonments are ideal stopovers.
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 10/22
1 Grand Sauros Hotel on Wheels
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Maubara
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 11/22
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ECONOMIC FRAME
Since oil production began in early 2000, Timor-Leste has built a sizable petroleumfund that reached 886 percent of non-oil GDP in 2011 (IMF, 2012). The PetroleumFund balance is expected to be $6.62 billion by end of2010, which is up from $5.38billion by end of 2009. The Petroleum Fund balance is estimated at $8.17 billion bythe end of 2011, $9.82 billion by the end of 2012 and $14.60 billion by end of 2015.
Generating vigorous growth in the non-oil economy will require higher productivityin agriculture, the wider provision of growth-enhancing infrastructure (roads,electricity, telecommunications), a major improvement in the private sector enablingenvironment, and a quantum increase in the countrys skills base.
Capital expenditure remained low before 2011, but the government recentlylaunched a strategic development plan that includes large infrastructure spending tobe partially financed by withdrawals from the petroleum fund.
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 12/22
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...
Since continued spending above ESI will erode the real value of the nationspetroleum wealth, clear economic criteria for exceeding ESI should be developed(e.g., limiting such expenditures to investments that promise high economic rates ofreturn). It would also be useful to examine the case for public borrowing, as this
offers an alternative to drawing on the Petroleum Fund (provided that debt is onconcessional terms, that appropriate management capacity is installed and that thecost of borrowing is less than the income foregone from Petroleum Fund assets) andexpands domestic capacity through contracting out. It will also be important tocrowd in private sector investment, thereby avoiding the inflation of factor prices.
The projections for 2012/2013/2017 show Timor-Leste as being the only Developing
Asian country to have consistent double digit GDP growth (World Economic Outlook,April 2012).
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 13/22
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DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME
Demographic projections, calculated for this report, indicate that the Timoresepopulation should increase by one-third by 2015 from its initial 2005 value, by four-fifths by 2025, and triple by 2050. (These results are similar to those in earlier
projections from the National Statistics Directorate.) In an alternative rapid growthscenario, the population could quadruple by 2050. In the medium scenario, annualpopulation growth rates start at 3.3 percent and fall slowly to 2.7 percent between2005 and 2025. This will lead Timor-Leste to equal Indonesia's current population
density by 2025. The population will age, but only slightly, with 40 percent stillyounger than 15 by 2025.
Some social sectors will be especially affected by rapid population growth. Theurban population, now about one-quarter of the total, is growing much faster thanthe rural population. Urban growth is 4.7 percent a year and will decline only to 4.4
percent by 2025, by which time the urban population will be 2.5 times its presentsize. Beyond 2025, the urban population could expand even more dramatically. The
rural population will grow more slowly, but will still increase 50 percent by 2025.World Bank - Policy Note on Population Growth and its Implications in Timor-Leste (Oct.9, 2008)
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 15/22
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PROJECT COMPONENTS
1. RAILS (CLDB)
2. EMBANKMENTS (CLDB)
3. BRIDGES (CLDB)
4. TUNNELS (CLDB)
5. STATIONS (CLDB)
6. FIELD LINES (CLDB)
7. ROLLING STOCK (PRIVATE)
8. NATIONAL GRID (GOVT.)
9. POWER STATIONS (GOVT.)
10. ACCESS ROADS (GOVT.)
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 16/22
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FINANCE
COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) SHARES
Notional one dollar share capital 100% owned by the 13 districts. Voting rights andprofit entitlements apportioned pro-rata of the last population census.
COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) BONDS
CLDB to issue perpetual callable state guaranteed bonds, placed by the Central Bankwith the Petroleum Fund and other Timor based institutional investors. Interestpayments indexed to the rail network access fees charged to rolling stock ownercompanies.
LEASEHOLD RIGHTS
All land occupied by the network and main (downtown) city centers close to it isheld on 99 year leases from the State. Proceeds from the sale of such lease rightsare used to fund the project (buy CLDB bonds).
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 17/22
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COST ESTIMATES
500 km x US$10 mio = US$5 bn
Here are some sample new railway project costs as published in the railway tradepress. The prices published by operators usually include all civil and equipment
costs, project and financing costs.
Complete Rail Projects
Railway> Date Type of System Cost per km Distance
Madrid - Albacete 2010 High Speed line 9.57 million 304 kms
Yichang-Wanzhou, China 2011 Main line $9.1 million 377 kms
Haikou-Sanya, China 2010 High Speed line $10.0 million 308 kms
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 18/22
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YichangWanzhou Railway, an important railway linking Central China and West China, will beopened to traffic on November 20, 2010. When it opens, it will only take about 10 hours fromWuhan to Chongqing (compared with 18 hours before) by express trains, and about 21 hoursfrom Chengdu to Shanghai (saving more than 10 hours than before).
YichangWanzhou Railway stretches 377 kilometers(234 miles) from Yichang City, Hubei Province toWanzhou District of Chongqing City, and joinsShanghai-Chengdu Railway, which passes Shanghai,Nanjing, Hefei, Wuhan, Yichang, Chongqing and
Chengdu along the way. Because of the complexgeologic conditions, YichangWanzhou Railway isregarded as the most difficult railway project inChina. It cost 60 million yuan per kilometer, which istwice as much as that ofQinghaiTibet Railway. Thetotal length of tunnels and bridges is about 279kilometers (173 miles), taking up 74% of the wholeline, hence the railway is said to be the museum of
tunnels and bridges.www.chinahighlights.com/news/travel-latest
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 19/22
http://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/special-report/qinghai-tibet-railway/http://www.chinahighlights.com/nanjing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/hefei/http://www.chinahighlights.com/yichang/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chengdu/http://www.chinahighlights.com/shanghai/http://www.chinahighlights.com/wuhan/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chongqing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/news/travel-latesthttp://www.chinahighlights.com/news/travel-latesthttp://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/special-report/qinghai-tibet-railway/http://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/special-report/qinghai-tibet-railway/http://www.chinahighlights.com/hefei/http://www.chinahighlights.com/hefei/http://www.chinahighlights.com/nanjing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/nanjing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/yichang/http://www.chinahighlights.com/yichang/http://www.chinahighlights.com/shanghai/http://www.chinahighlights.com/shanghai/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chengdu/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chengdu/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chongqing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chongqing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/wuhan/http://www.chinahighlights.com/wuhan/7/31/2019 East-timor Rail Master Plan
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SISTER PROJECTS
INDIA is undertaking one of its most challenging railway projects ever by building aline to connect Kashmir with the Himalayan foothills. The Kashmir Railway Project(KRP) is A 345 km extension of the Indian Railway network, being developed toprovide an alternative and reliable transportation system to the state of Jammu andKashmir. At the moment Kashmir is connected to the rest of India only by road.
Rails cross a total of over 750 bridges and pass through over 100 km of tunnels.
The estimated cost of the project is RS302 bn (US$5.7 bn).
MALAYSIA has undertaken the Electrification of Double Track Project (EDTP), whichruns through four states in the northern peninsular region of Malaysia. The projectinvolves the laying and electrification of a 329 km long double track near theexisting single track that runs from Ipoh in Perak to Padang Besar in Perlis.
The project is part of a master plan to improve the public transport system inMalaysia. Road transport constitutes 89% (as of April 2008) of the transportationsystem in Malaysia, causing congestion on the expressway.
Estimated to cost RM16.5 bn (US$5.4 bn), the Ipoh-Padang Besar electrification isMalaysia's largest and costliest railway project.
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 20/22
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MATE, WHAT HAVE YOU DONE?
FOLIN KARUN LIU KA BARATU?
EXPENSIVE FOR A TRAIN,
CHEAP FOR A COUNTRY!
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 21/22
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Uatolari
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 22/22