www.csiro.au

EBFM and Modelling

Beth Fulton

CSIRO Marine Research

EBFM and Modelling

Australian Modelling Successes

Successes and failures with all types (just tools)

— single species (linked)

— multispecies (target, bycatch, habitat)

EBFM and Modelling

Multispecies Model Success

Sainsbury on Northwest Shelf

— alternative hypotheses (identified time to reduce uncertainty)

— evaluated alternative long & short term strategies (& costs)

EBFM and Modelling

Australian Modelling Successes

Successes and failures with all types (just tools)

— single species (linked)

— multispecies (target, bycatch, habitat)

— Ecopath (fisheries-marine mammal overlap)

— ecosystem models (biophysical, multi-sector; Atlantis, InVitro)

EBFM and Modelling

Management Strategy Evaluation

Unifying factor in success = Management Strategy Evaluation

Process = consultative

— science, management and industry

Models (single species, multispecies, ecosystem)

EBFM and Modelling

Management Strategy Evaluation

Biophysical

Exploitation

Observation

Management

EBFM and Modelling

Management Strategy Evaluation

Biophysical

Exploitation

Observation

Management

EBFM and Modelling

MSE Reporting

StrategyIn

dica

tor

A B C D E I

II

II

I

IV

EBFM and Modelling

MSE Ecosystem Model - Atlantis

Biological and physical main processes and groups thought important in temperate marine

ecosystems

EBFM and Modelling

MSE Ecosystem Model - Atlantis0

50

150

250

750+

Sediment

Epibenthic

Pelagic

Within each cell have ecology (51 functional groups/species) and fisheries (32 fleets)

EBFM and Modelling

MSE Ecosystem Model - Atlantis

Biological and physical main processes and groups thought important in temperate marine ecosystems

Anthropogenic fishing (including discarding, habitat modification etc) other (changing nutrient loads, temperature profiles)

Fleet dynamics and management multiple fleets (ports, displacement, targeting, gear) management (closures, effort control, quotas, mitigation, changing gear,

changing practices)

Monitoring and assessment data from surveys and fisheries records (with error) common assessment models and index estimation

EBFM and Modelling

MSE Locations and Lessons

EEZ

Claimable shelf

Previous MSEOngoing MSE

Modelling lessons

— scales/focus

— formulations

Ecological indicators

— simpler = better

Data/monitoring gaps shown

Value of qualitative info

Trade-offs always involved

— highlights issues missed by assessments

Adds value to models

EBFM and Modelling

Issues For Discussion

Examples of models in EBFM

Changes in governance/policy/administration required

Models we’ve overlooked (e.g. from other fields)

New models/data required

— functional responses, interactions etc

— handling uncertainty

— fitting to data, making sure models and questions match