Economic Outlook: Here We Grow Again?

Matt Croucher PhDChief Economist

Arizona Public Service Co.

US GDP: Where We Currently Stand

Time For “THAT” Discussion

Which Sparky?

US GDP: The “New Normal”………?

US Long-Term Unemployed: Structural Problems?

US Labor Force Participation Rates by Age: Dispelling a Myth

• 25 – 49 year olds have rates above 80 percent – have stayed relatively flat

Interest Rates Lowering the Cost of New Investment

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Metro Phoenix

Cumulative Supply of Excess HousingAPS Territory, Metro Phoenix

Nonresidential Building Vacancy: Metro Phoenix

Arizona Total Nonfarm Jobs: The Climb has begun

• Seasonally Adjusted

Arizona: Looking at the Sectors

Conclusion

• We are seeing signs of (sustained) traction/rebound in the Arizona Economy

• Need to remember that the long-term fundamentals are still in place

• My real GDP forecast?• D: One of the above