Post on 14-Jan-2016
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EconomyEconomy——EnergyEnergy——ClimateClimate::Using the LinkagesUsing the Linkages
The Basics
• Strong Economy Depends on Energy and Stable Climate
• Energy Policy that Ignores Climate Protection Will Fail
• Climate Policy that Ignores Energy Needs Will Fail
Exploiting Linkages
• Protecting the climate IS an economic growth strategy
• Protecting the climate IS an energy security strategy
• Smart energy policy IS a path to economic and climate security
Speedy Timeline
• House E&C Comm. by end of May• Pass House by August recess• Senate: multi-committee process
with reports by July 4 recess• Pass Senate in September• Conference in October (November)• Signature by COP 15
ACES WILL BOOST OUR ECONOMY
• According to NEMS-NRDC, ACES will drive an additional investment of $306 billion in low- or no-emissions electricity generation technologies between 2012 and 2030, which includes $103 billion redirected from conventional fossil-fuel generation. ACES will also drive $32 billion of additional investment to increase the efficiency of residential and commercial equipment.
• Clean energy investments create more jobs for Americans of all skill and education levels than comparable investments in fossil-fuel energy sources
–The Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), and independent unit of the University of Massachusetts, found that clean energy investments
Create 3.2 times as many jobs as fossil fuel investments
Create 5.5 times as many jobs for workers with few educational credentials or work experience, and 75% of those jobs provide opportunities for advancement
– Recent UC Berkeley analysis finds ACES would produce 0.9-1.9 million additional jobs in 2020
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ACES IS AFFORDABLE
$4,747
$5,475$5,148
$4,785$5,039
$52 $70 $67 $92 $70$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
EPA: IGEM EPA: ADAGE EIA: NEMS NRDC: NEMS-NRDC Average
2007
$
INCREASE IN MEDIAN INCOME UNDER ACES AVERAGE COST OF ACES
INCREASE IN AVERAGE 2012-2030 MEDIAN ANNUAL INCOME PER HOUSEHOLD FROM 2009 LEVELSAND
AVERAGE ANNUAL COST PER HOUSEHOLD VS. BAU OVER 2012-2030
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Comparing EPA, EIA, and NEMS-NRDC results, the estimates for average annual household cost of ACES range from $52 to $92, which translates to $0.14 to $0.25 per household per day. Meanwhile, median annual income levels per household over 2012-2030 under ACES are expected to be, on average, $4,700 to $5,500 higher than 2009 levels.
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ACES WILL MAKE AMERICA MORE SECURE (1/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
EPA: IGEM EPA: ADAGE EIA: NEMS NRDC: NEMS-NRDC NRDC: MARKAL
Mill
ion
MtC
O2
2020 2030
CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURED FROM ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES WITH CCS IN 2020 AND 2030
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ACES WILL MAKE AMERICA MORE SECURE (2/2)
At today’s oil prices, the cumulative value of these reduced oil imports through 2050 will be more than $2 trillion, significantly boosting the benefit of ACES to the U.S. economy.
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4
6
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
IMPORTED CRUDE OIL IMPORTED REFINED PRODUCTS DOMESTIC CRUDE OIL CO2-EOR
DOMESTIC AND IMPORTED CRUDE OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS CONSUMPTIION FROM 2010 TO 2050, IN MARKAL
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Some Important Climate Players
• Senate—– “3 B’s”: Boxer; Bingaman; Baucus– Other Committees: Ag; Banking; For.
Relations; Appropriations– Others: Reid; Corker; McConnell; Lugar;
Specter
• House—– Waxman; Markey; Pelosi; Barton;
Shimkus
Some Important NEW Players
• Kerry-Graham-Lieberman effort• Cantwell-Collins• Murkowski
Architecture Issues
• Auction• Investments v. Rebates• Offsets• Trading Limits• Safety Valve• Targets• Clean Air Act and State Authority
THE PATH TO 60 VOTES
Yes 31
Probably Yes 13
Fence Sitters 21
Sen. Warner, VA
Sen. Whitehouse, RI
Sen. McCaskill, MO
TOTAL: 65
+
+
Vote Count
Bipartisan Strategy
THE PATH TO 60 VOTES
TOTAL: 65
Democrats
31 Yes
11 Probably Yes
15 Fence Sitters
57
Republicans
2 Probably Yes
6 Fence Sitters
8
1 Dem, 1 Republican
1 or 2 Dems
1 Republican
Fence Sitters
2
2
2
2
THE PATH TO 60 VOTES
Issues in PlayTHE PATH TO 60 VOTES
COST
COMPETITIVENESSAGRICULTURECOAL
OIL & NUCLEAR
COST
Vote Count: 50
• Direct utilities to use allowances for public benefit
• Protect the poor through a rebate program
• Implement energy efficiency measures to lower monthly electricity bills
THE PATH TO 60 VOTES
COMPETITVENESS
Vote Count: 54• Direct allowances to energy-intensive, trade-
exposed manufacturers
• Provide assistance to make manufacturing more energy efficient
• Impose a boarder adjustment if other countries fail to take action
THE PATH TO 60 VOTES
COALVote Count: 61
• Keep coal in the system by offering incentives for carbon capture and storage
• Ensure costs do not increase excessively for coal dependent utilities
THE PATH TO 60 VOTES
The Power of CoalConradDorgan
Johnson
Nelson, B.
Salazar
Bingaman
ByrdRockefeller
BrownBayh
LevinStabenow
McCaskill
PryorLincoln
Webb
Coal and the SenateWest Virginia
Indiana
Wyoming
Utah
North Dakota
Kentucky
New Mexico
Ohio
Missouri
Iowa
Delaware
Colorado
Kansas
Wisconsin
Georgia
Tennessee
Minnesota
Michigan
Nebraska
Maryland
Texas
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Alabama
North Carolina
Montana
Virginia
Arizona
South Dakota
Mississippi
AGRICULTUREVote Count: 63
• Offset system will generate revenue for farmers
• New opportunities to profit from renewable energy sources like solar, wind and biomass energy
• Promote energy efficiency measures to benefit farmers
THE PATH TO 60 VOTES
OIL & NUCLEAR
Vote Count: 65
THE PATH TO 60 VOTES
• Worker training• Loan guarantees• Direct subsidies for new plants?• OCS, revenue sharing
Diverse Voices RepresentedMember Organizations:
Thank You
David HawkinsNRDC
dhawkins@nrdc.org