Economy&housing230315 pres

transcript

Economy and Housing

Research

Polly Jackson, Stuart Morris

23rd March 2015

“It’s the economy1 stupid”

1. Which is very closely linked with the housing market for many reasons including: land prices, house prices, population age structures, commuting patterns, retail locations, future employment trends, migration patterns, land availability, local earnings, strengths in industrial sectors, unemployment, the list goes on….

How many?

Number of homes to be built in

Cambridgeshire 2011-31

Number of homes sold in

Cambridgeshire in 2014

People claiming JSA in Cambridgeshire

Dec-14

Total social rented stock

A format to suit everyone

www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk

Economic evidence: East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM)

Jobs Population Housing

Cambridgeshire population forecasts

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

(000s)

EEFM high migration

EEFM lost decade

EEFM baseline

Census trend

CCC housing targets

LEFM RG Pop

ONS 2011-based projections

LEFM baseline

ONS 2010-based projections

CCC natural change

CCC no build

East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM)

People Business Place

Local Economic Assessment

Cambridgeshire JSA claimant count unemployment : Total claimants aged 16-64 (Feb-04 to Dec-14)

Workplace destination of employed residents aged 16-74 who live in East Cambridgeshire: proportion of total employed resident population aged 16-74 (2011)

Housing Research

• Strategic Housing Market Assessment

– Assessment of housing requirement

– Assessment of affordable housing need

– Market signals: House Prices, Rents, Affordability, Supply of new homes, Overcrowding and Homelessness

• Rural housing profiles

• Fuel poverty atlas and benefits changes atlas

New developments surveys• 2006-2012: 7 surveys of about 35 sites, including

Cambourne and Red Lodge.

• Asking about household type, where they have moved from, employment and travel, and things people like/dislike about new developments

• Individual reports for each survey and comparison report: http://www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/housing/housing-research/new-housing-development-surveys

Population

New town Substantial In-fill All new developments Sub-Region (2011)

Development Type

Under 16 17-29 30-44 45-59 60+

New homes for local people

0 <2km <5km <10km <20km <30km <40km <60km

Distance moved from previous home

Cambridge and South Cambs - a major economic centre

• 63% of Cambourne residents work in City/South Cambs. 27% of Red Lodge residents employed in this area.

• Cambridge is a major centre for non-food shopping.

• Good road links to employment centres are important. More than three-quarters of respondents travel to work by car.

But Cambridge is an expensive place to live!

Cambridge Cambourne Red Lodge

Total properties sold 1,753 279 164

Sold for under £150K (Number) 90 28 40

Sold for under £150K (Percentage) 5% 10% 24%

Cambridge Cambourne Red Lodge

Detached Semi-detached Terrace Flat/maisonette

Price compared to other areas was an important reason for choosing to live in Cambourne and Red Lodge, even though they are more expensive than neighbouring villages. But when you compare them to Cambridge…

Summary

• Knowledge about the economy and housing are important in supporting council priorities around helping people live well independently in a safe environment and leading a healthy lifestyle, supporting a prosperous economy.

• We have a range of resources available around housing and the economy including the EEFM, SHMA and new developments surveys.

@CambsInsight

pinterest.com/cambsinsight

Cambridgeshire Insight

Come visit us! Shire Hall – Room 015

W: www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk

T: 01223 715300

E: research.performance@cambridgeshire.gov.uk

Coming soon

Thurs 26th: Consultations, Customer Insight, and Community Safety

Economy&housing230315 pres

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