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Ecosystems, climate change and resilience in Nepal’s rural-urban continuum
Ajaya Dixit
ESPA Meeting
26 and 27 November 2014 New Delhi
Physical context Ecosystems Changing rural urban relationships Climate change Adaptation and resilience Some questions Concluding thoughts
Physical context
Meso-scale variation. Regions on the wind ward of mountain ranges are wetter than those on leeward side
(FAO, 2014)
Micro-scale variation. Whether floor or hills of a single valley
get more rain at any one rainfall event is hard to predict
Ecosystems
River ecosystem Elements: • River channel • Flood plain • Land and land use types in the riparian area linked directly to river
water • Human habitat, agricultural land, forest, grassland, wetland,
biodiversity- plants and animals) Processes: • Hydrologic (water production and distribution) • Geological (erosion and sedimentation) • Bio-chemical (disintegration and synthesis- nutrient recycling) • Biological (conversion of water, nutrients and energy into food) Processes link the elements in producing goods and services
River ecosystem types:
i. Natural system:
• Functions to satisfy all uses
• Ecosystem integrity is maintained
ii. Human engineered system:
• Designed to satisfy irrigation, municipal and industrial uses and non-consumptive (power generation, flood control) uses
• Enhanced gains for human welfare (generally at the cost of environmental integrity)
Human engineered system
• Uni-dimensional and uni-directional) : focus on enhancing provisioning services and to some extent maintaining and/or enhancing regulating services (dams, flood embankments, inter-basin water transfer)
• Cultural and supporting services are either ignored or compromised
• Social, economic and environmental costs are externalized.
Knowledge: Human engineered ecosystem
• Hydraulics and river hydraulics understanding from different
geo-hydrological context.
• Limited empirical evidences on behavior of regional climate and
river systems.
• Over simplification of processes.
• Preponderance towards construction based (hardware)
solutions
• Non-structural alternatives not considered while designing
strategies.
• Data deficit: precipitation, river flow, sedimentation, river
bahavour, ecosystem service relationship
• Knowledge deficit in accounting and quantifying supporting,
regulating and cultural services.
Indeed a Mosaic but Fluid Mosaic
Provisioning
Agricultural land (20 % total
area) 8.58 million metric tons of
cereal, employs 66 %
population.
Forests (timber, fodder forage).
6,000 rivers, 225* 109 m3 spatial
and temporal variations.
FMIS 75 % irrigated land.
Bio mass meets fuel needs of
65.6 % households.
Hydropower 708.519 MW;
4218.135 Gwh, 22 MW small
scale 48 Gwh of energy
Solar home systems produce
1.23 MW
268,464 biogas plants serve
over 225,000 households.
Exploitable minerals include
limestone, copper and zinc.
Stones, boulders and sand are
mined and used.
2,000 plants known to have
medicinal properties
Regulating
Mountains condensation
of vapour in water-bearing
winds 1,857 mm of rainfall:
80 % in four summer
months.
Forests, grasslands, and
water bodies modulate
temperature and wind
patterns: produce micro-
climates.
Micro level forests,
grasslands, and leaf litters
support the recharge of
aquifers, local surface and
groundwater systems.
Both traditional and
modern hydro structures
regulate flowing water.
5,358 lakes, of which
glacial lakes 2,323
Vegetation, together with
soil-building processes,
provides a buffer against
disturbances caused by
natural and human forces.
Capacity is being eroded
by the haphazard
construction of roads,
urbanization.
Cultural
Safaris, trekking and
mountaineering, and white water
rafting, canoeing, bungee jumping,
paragliding, and mountain cycling).
Hindu temples, shrines and
Buddhists monasteries
8.03 million tourists supported
hotels, restaurants, travel and
trekking agencies, and other
related service sectors.
About 553,500 people were directly
employed in the tourism sector and
tourism generated USD 356.73
million as revenue for the state
exchequer. Tourism and travel
trade accounted for 4.3 per cent of
the GDP.
IKLP drinking water, irrigation,
housing, bridge building, milling,
trails, forest use, natural resources
and agro-systems, Sources of
resilience.
Supporting
Ponds in hills recharge
springs.
Estimated to be 8.8 X 109
m3. The recharge rate
varies from 11,598 x 106
to 14,300 x 106 m3.
Sediment yield rate, about
472 x 106 m3/year fine
sediment deposited on
flood plains maintains soil
fertility.
.
Wetlands support a wide
variety of plants and
animals and are a means
of livelihood for many
people. In the Tarai,
fishing occurs on 14 per
cent of wetlands and
animal grazing on 70 per
cent.
Wetlands help moderate
flood peaks too.
Changing rural urban relationship
Next 15 years, 60 per cent of the world’s people will live in cities, most of them in Asia! .
Homo sapiens becoming Homo sapiens urbanus
Total urban population 58 municipalities- 4,523,820(17%) Municipality numbers- 130 (in recent times 72 added ) Total population of Kathmandu Valley- 2,517,235 (Kathmandu, Lalitpur & Bhaktapur districts) (CBS, 2011)
Penetration of rural and urban systems
DST (2008)
Tamrakar (2003).
Imports of cereal foods doubled during fiscal year 2009/10 compared to 2008/2009. (Rs 4.19 billion from Rs 2.2 billion during the period).
Dixit et. al (2013)
Climate Change
IPCC
IPCC
Climate change: Scenario for Nepal
Rara
Who benefits, who decides, who is represented
Floods, storms, drought mitigation – up to thresholds
Solutionsheds
Water availability, access, disease control
o Impact of temperature rise has not been seriously examined
o Just not temperature but heat
Heat includes humidity Humidity a factor in metabolic cooling processes
Temperature
Precipitation
Humidity
Temperature regime Nepal
Higher temperature most certain of projection outputs:
Rise in mean temperature in 2090 CE could be as high as 4.7o C (NCVST, 2009)
Extreme Base Increase by % Scenario Year
hot days hottest 5% of days/nights: 1970-1999
70 2090
Hot nights 93
Historical records Temperature rise in hills of central Nepal about 0.060 C/annum.
Local experience: days and nights becoming hotter
• Worked with National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to explore what might be the future of heat
• Used the 37° body temperature threshold
A recent ISET study in Gorakhpur, India (McClune et al forthcoming) highlights heat as an emerging issue for the poor households: Cannot escape it
Gorakhpur: Change in heat days
Number of days in Gorakhpur above 37˚C
South Asia – heat days above 370 C
Provisioning
Agriculture. Forests fodder and forage. % with reliable, affordable, green 24/7 energy Plants with medicinal properties and livelihood ? ?
Regulating
Temperature modulating role ? ?
Cultural
?
?
Supporting
?
?
New strategies needed: how, who, where
Solutions are partly technical, social, economic and political – and don’t yet exist
What temperature threshold forces humans into actions that they take to save themselves from the extreme heat?
Heat problem arenas have major challenges
Adaptation and resilience
• For many impacts we can build on elements of technology and social organizations that are placed to build resilience or adapt
• For heat, human threshold is fairly sharp, active cooling essential response.
• Implications on energy, technological choice, economic pathways, access and equity issues
• Adds yet one more tough layer on already tough current challenges.
Existing challenges
Dealing with attribution Development-adaptation continuum What is the additionality?
Linking planned and autonomous adaptation
Brooks et al. (2011)
NCVST (2009)
Climate Resilience Framework (CRF)
ISET (2009) Dixit and Khadga, 2013)
Agents
Resourceful
Responsive
Ability to learn
Institutions
Recognition of
access rights and
entitlements
Decision making
processes follow
principles of good
governance
Transparent
information flows
Able to apply new
knowledge
Resilience characteristics
Systems
Flexibility and diversity
Redundancy and modularity Fail safe
Which ecosystems and services are most vulnerable, and what does their interdependence with larger systems tell us about their current vulnerability?
Which individuals, households, communities, and
institutions are likely to be more vulnerable?
How will climate change (temperature, moisture change, heat) affect the services, the interdependence and those dependent on the services and change vulnerability?
How can resilience of natural and human built systems enhanced so that people are better prepared to deal with the stresses that climate change may engender?
Who should be involved in the process of building resilience and how?
Questions
Few concluding thoughts
• Climate change creates new stress in the wellbeing journey: adds to governance deficit, lowers development and poverty alleviation gains.
• If adaptation is planned responses to specific projected impacts, then specific climate-targeted responses required.
• If adaptation an ongoing process within complex evolving
systems, then approaches that address points of vulnerability within the Fluid Mosaic needed.
• Approach: pluralistic, incremental and reflective.