Effective Risk Response PlanningEffective Risk Response PlanningEffective Risk Response Planning

PMI – New HampshireFebruary 18th 2004

PMI – New HampshirePMI – New HampshireFebruary 18th 2004February 18th 2004

OverviewOverviewOverview

• Introduction• RISK SIG Overview• Root Cause Projection Technique

PMI Risk SIG

Bruce Chadbourne, PMPDirector – Region 1Eastern Americas

Your PMI RISK SIGYour PMI RISK SIGYour PMI RISK SIG

• Great NH Presence and Resources!– Chuck Bosler, Chairman

• Recent Projects• Volunteer Opportunities• Upcoming Symposia

HighlightsHighlightsHighlights

• Membership – 1,600 1,717 and growing• Great Newsletter• International reach – global representation

– European Congress 2004, Czech Republic

Project Risk SymposiumMay 16-19, 2004

Disney Grand Californian HotelAnaheim CA

Project Risk SymposiumMay 16-19, 2004

Disney Grand Californian HotelAnaheim CA

Previous Events• Long Beach, Sept 12-14, 2002

– Barry Boehm, RobertCharette

• Hampton Roads SymposiumMay 21, 2001

Future Events• Washington DC 2004

(TBA)• Brazil• Australia

Risk Management NewsletterRisk Management NewsletterRisk Management NewsletterFebruary 2004

• “Advanced Quantitative Schedule RiskAnalysis” (Hulett)

• “The Two Faces of Risk Management”(Hillson)

• “When ‘Right’ Risk Management is Not the‘Right’ Risk Management” (Peterson)

• Symposia announcements

www.risksig.com

Risk SIG WebsiteRisk SIG WebsiteRisk SIG Website

• Risk Tool Survey• Bibliography• Projects

– Risk Handbook– Advanced Risk Management Certification– Risks for Globalized Projects– Universal risks

Volunteer OpportunitiesVolunteer OpportunitiesVolunteer Opportunities

• Risk Handbook• Event Planning• Website projects• Liaison

Earn those PDU’s !

How may We serve You?How may We serve You?How may We serve You?

• Visit us !• Join us !• Questions?

Email: DirReg1@RiskSIG.comwww.RiskSIG.com

Introducing…

Paula K. Martin,Martin Training Associates

Paula K. Martin,Paula K. Martin,Martin Training AssociatesMartin Training Associates

www.martintraining.net

•Simple Steps

•Flexible Approach

•Collaborative

•PMBOK®Compliant

•“FAQ” /Diagnostics

•Risk Metrics

www.appliedriskassessment.com

Why Risk Management?Why Risk Management?Why Risk Management?Resume:• Navy background – Nuclear• Systems / Software Engineering• Integrated Product Development• Project Support Office initiative

How about You?How about You?How about You?

Significant Risk Role or Interest?

Root Cause Projection Techniquefor Risk Management

Root Cause Projection TechniqueRoot Cause Projection Techniquefor Risk Managementfor Risk Management

Bruce C. Chadbourne, PMPDirector, Risk SIG Region 1Merrimack, NH

Bruce C. Chadbourne, PMPBruce C. Chadbourne, PMPDirector, Risk SIG Region 1Director, Risk SIG Region 1Merrimack, NHMerrimack, NH

Risk ManagementLesson-learned from Androcles

Risky project execution

Untangling another fine mess

So?• Risk Management• Major pitfall - ineffective mitigation

How about a practical,down-to-earth suggestion?

Background of... Root Cause Analysis

• Simple example– Requires fuel, heat and oxygen.

• Decision Systems, Inc. “Reason”• Basic technique:

– “WHY?” or “WHAT CHANGED?”

Eureka

Defining and Applying theTechnique

• Almost that easy...– Simple things work the best– Quickly understood and applied

• Let’s provide a framework...– using PMBOK Risk processes

Operational Test Fails

Project Canceled !

1. RISK IdentificationLook into the future

What headline don’t YOUwant to see?

Company stock pricedrops 78%Company stock price

drops 78% Oh No !Company stock pricedrops 78%

Accident AnalysisTop Down approach

N/C

N/C

N/C

N/C N/C

Worker handling chemicals perassigned job

(P)

Janitor performingcleaning

(P)

Janitor temporarilyassigned

(P)

Supervisor failedto brief Janitor

(C)

Janitor not briefedprior to shift

(C)

Janitor unfamiliarwith safetyprocedures

(C)

Janitor ignoreswarning light

(C)

Janitor enters area,bumping into worker

(C)

Worker spills chemicals(C)

Safety instructionsrequire goggles, apron,

and gloves(I)

Worker receivedrequired training

(I)

Worker has seenothers ignore

the rules(C)

Worker did not thinkit necessary

(C)

Worker did not adhereto safety rules

(C)

Worker not wearingsafety equipment

(P)

Worker injured by caustic chemicals(End result)

Why?Why didn’t the supervisor do his job?•Too busy?•New policy required?•Need refresher training?

Why?Why are workers ignoring the rules?•Inadequate supervision?•Need for spot-audits?•Design a safety interlock?

2. RISK AnalysisFirst pass, using the RCPT

Contractordelivers late

(C)

Communicationbreakdown

(P)

Staff is wornout

(P)

Contractor’sproduct has

bugs

(C)

11th Hour Crisis(End Result)

the RISK “HEADLINE”...

(C) - Causes

(P) - Permitting Conditions

Key

2. RISK AnalysisDig down, follow each path

Contractordelivers late

(C)

Contractor’sproduct has bugs

(C)

11th Hour Crisis

We’re lategiving them

requirements

(C)

Our job is nottheir highest

priority

(P)

They cannotbuy an

obsolete part

(C)

Why?

Why?

Why?

Why?

3. RISK Response PlanningDig down, follow each path

Contractordelivers late

(C)

Contractor’sproduct has bugs

(C)

11th Hour Crisis

We’re lategiving them

requirements(C)

Our job is nottheir highest

priority(P)

They cannotbuy an

obsolete part(C)

Detailed Responses / Opportunities

How do we recover? Offer incentive ? Can we help ?

Generalized Risk

Contractordelivers late

(C)

Contractor’sproduct has bugs

(C)

11th Hour Crisis

We’re lategiving them

requirements(C)

Our job is nottheir highest

priority(P)

They cannotbuy an

obsolete part(C)

Keep score on successes and setbacks

Preempted !4. RISK Monitor & ControlVisual tool for tracking progress

Examples

Lackedskill?

Attitude:Careless,Carefree

Inattentive

Took unnecessaryrisk?

Blindsided?(not my fault)

Accident occurs

Unaware of needto insure

Insurance tooexpensive

Procrastination

Failed to buyinsurance

Insufficient InsuranceCoverage

No planto save

No savingsdiscipline

Spent savingselsewhere

Nosavings

Discipline?

Did not reduceother spendingafter accident

Inadequate savingsbuffer

Accident requires large, or unplannedexpenses

(medical, vehicle, home, litigation)(possibly lost income)

RCPT Summary ... How do I get started?

Question:What MIGHT happen?Why?Therefore:What can be done NOW?

Extend the Reach of Your Headlights

ROOT

CAUSE

PROJECTION

TECHNIQUE

QUESTIONS?Root Cause Projection Technique

for Risk Management

QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?Root Cause Projection TechniqueRoot Cause Projection Technique

for Risk Managementfor Risk Management

Bruce C. Chadbourne, PMPDirector, Risk SIG Region 1Merrimack, NH

Bruce C. Chadbourne, PMPBruce C. Chadbourne, PMPDirector, Risk SIG Region 1Director, Risk SIG Region 1Merrimack, NHMerrimack, NH