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8/6/2019 EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2011
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Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 20111
IndependentStatistics&Analysis
U.S. Energy Information
Administration June2011
ShortTermEnergyOutlookJune7,2011Release
Highlights
WorldbenchmarkcrudeoilpricesreachedtheirhighestlevelofthisyearattheendofApril,fellbyabout10percentbyMay9andhavechangedverylittle
sincethen. EIAstillexpectsoilmarketstotightenthrough2012givenprojected
worldoildemandgrowthandslowinggrowthinsupplyfromcountriesthat
arenotmembersoftheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries
(OPEC). TheprojectedU.S.refinercrudeoilaverageacquisitioncostrisesfrom
$104perbarrelin2011to$108perbarrelin2012,aboutthesameaslast
monthsOutlook.
BasedontheoutlookfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)forthecurrentAtlantichurricaneseason,EIA
estimatesmedian(mean)outcomesfortotalshutinproductionintheFederal
GulfofMexico(GOM)duringtheupcominghurricaneseason(Junethrough
November)ofabout19(27)millionbarrelsofcrudeoiland53(78)billioncubic
feet(Bcf)ofnaturalgas(see2011OutlookforHurricaneRelatedProductionOutagesintheGulfofMexico). Actualshutinsarelikelytodiffersignificantly
fromthisestimatedependingonthenumber,track,andstrengthofhurricanes
astheseasonprogresses.
Regulargraderetailgasolinepriceaveragedabout$3.96pergallonduringthefirsthalfofMayasunexpectedrefineryoutagesanddisruptionsindistribution
causedbythefloodingoftheMississippiRiveranditstributariestemporarily
counterbalancedtheimpactoflowercrudeoilprices. Inrecentweeks,
gasolinepriceshavebeenfalling,however,astherefinerysituationhasbegun
torecover. EIAexpectstheMayaveragepriceof$3.91pergallonwillbethepeakmonthlyaveragepricethisdrivingseason. Still,EIAforecaststhatthe
regulargrademotorgasolineretailpricewillaverage$3.75pergallonduring
thissummersdrivingseason(fromApril1throughSeptember30),upfrom
$2.76pergallonlastsummer,but6centspergallonlowerthanlastmonths
Outlook.
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Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 20112
NaturalgasworkinginventoriesendedMay2011at2.2trillioncubicfeet(Tcf),about10percent,or245billioncubicfeet(Bcf),belowthe2010endofMay
level. EIAexpectsthatworkinggasinventorieswillbuildstronglyduringthe
summerandapproachrecordhighlevelsinthesecondhalfof2011. The
projectedHenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceaverages$4.25permillionBritish
thermalunits(MMBtu)in2011,$0.13perMMBtulowerthanthe2010average.EIAexpectsthenaturalgasmarkettobegintighteningin2012,withtheHenry
Hubspotpriceincreasingtoanaverageof$4.58perMMBtu.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels
CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.EIAprojectsthattotalworldoilconsumption
willgrowby1.7millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)in2011,whichisabout0.3million
bbl/dhigherthanlastmonthsOutlook,primarilybecauseofhigherforecastsof
consumptionforelectricitygenerationinChina,Japan,andtheMiddleEast.
Projectedworldconsumptionincreasesby1.6millionbbl/din2012,unchangedfrom
lastmonthsOutlook. ProjectedsupplyfromnonOPECcountriesincreasesbyan
averageofabout0.6millionbbl/din2011and0.5millionbbl/din2012.
EIAexpectsthatthemarketwillrelyonbothadrawdownofinventoriesand
increasesinproductionfrombothOPECandnonOPECcountriestomeetprojected
demandgrowth.WhileOPECcrudeoilproductiondeclines0.4millionbbl/din2011
becauseofthedisruptionforecasttoLibyanproduction,OPECnoncrudeliquids
productiongrowsby0.6millionbbl/d. EIAexpectstheworldcrudeoilmarketwill
continuetotightenin2012,withforecastOPECcrudeoilproductionincreasingby0.7millionbbl/dandOPECnoncrudeproductiongrowingby0.4millionbbl/d.
Amongthemajoruncertaintiesthatcouldpushcrudeoilpricesaboveorbelowour
currentforecastare:continuedunrestinproducingcountriesanditspotentialimpact
onsupply;decisionsbykeyOPECmembercountriesregardingtheirproductionin
responsetotheglobalincreaseinoildemand;therateofeconomicgrowth,both
domesticallyandglobally;fiscalissuesfacingnationalandsubnationalgovernments;
andChinaseffortstoaddressconcernsregardingitsgrowthandinflationrates.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption. EIAexpectsthatworldliquidfuels
consumption,whichreachedarecordlevelof86.7millionbarrelsperdayin2010,will
growby1.7millionbbl/din2011andbyanadditional1.6millionbbl/din2012,
resultingintotalworldconsumptionof90.0millionbbl/din2012. Countriesoutside
theOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)willmakeup
almostallofthegrowthinconsumptionoverthenexttwoyears,withthelargest
increasescomingfromChina,Brazil,andtheMiddleEast. Forecastsof2011
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Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 20113
consumptioninChina,Japan,andtheMiddleEastwereraisedby120thousandbbl/d,
80thousandbbl/d,and110thousandbbl/d,respectively,fromlastmonthsOutlook
becauseofhigherexpecteddemandforpetroleumfueledelectricpowergeneration.
EIAnowexpectsconsumptioninChinatoincreaseby700thousandbbl/din2011.
NonOPECSupply. EIAprojectsthatnonOPECcrudeoilandliquidfuelsproductionwillincreaseby590thousandbbl/din2011andby490thousandbbl/din2012. The
greatestincreasesinnonOPECoilproductionduring2011occurinBrazil(130
thousandbbl/d),Canada(170thousandbbl/d),China(140thousandbbl/d),Colombia
(110thousandbbl/d)andcountriesthatwereformerlypartoftheSovietUnion(210
thousandbbl/d). In2012,EIAexpectsproductiongrowthtoremainstronginCanada,
China,Brazil,andColombia,butforecastproductiongrowthintheformerSoviet
Unioncountriesslowsto80thousandbbl/d. OthernonOPECareasareexpectedto
decline,includingadecreaseinNorthSeaproductionof110thousandbbl/din2011
andafurther
decrease
of
200
thousand
bbl/d
in
2012.
OPECSupply.ForecastOPECcrudeoilproductiondeclinesby370thousandbbl/din
2011,followedbyanincreaseof660thousandbbl/din2012. EIAassumesthatabout
onehalfofLibyaspredisruptionproductionwillresumebytheendof2012.
EstimatedOPECcrudeoilproductionduringthefirstquarterof2011averagedalmost
30millionbbl/d. EIAprojectsthatOPECsurpluscapacitywillfallfrom4.0million
bbl/dattheendof2010to3.6millionbbl/dattheendof2011,followedbyafurther
declineto3.1millionbbl/dbytheendof2012. EstimatedOPECproductionofnon
crudeliquidstotals6.0and6.4millionbbl/din2011and2012,respectively.
OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAexpectsthatOECDinventorieswilldeclinein2011
followingthesteepdropinfloatingstoragethathasalreadyoccurred.Projected
onshoreOECDstocksfallbyabout120millionbarrelsin2011,followedbyan
additional110millionbarreldeclinein2012. Daysofsupply(totalinventories
dividedbyaveragedailyconsumption)dropsfromarelativelyhigh57.9daysduring
thefourthquarterof2010to54.6daysinthefourthquarterof2011,and52.4daysof
supplyinthefourthquarterof2012.
CrudeOilPrices.WTIcrudeoilspotpricesaveraged$103perbarrelinMarch,$110perbarrelinApril,and$101perbarrelinMay. TheWTIcrudeoilpricewas$113per
barrelatthebeginningofMaybutfellto$97perbarrelbytheendofthefirstweekof
themonth. FortheremainderofMay,WTIpricesfluctuatedwithinarelatively
narrowrangeofbetween$96and$103perbarrel. EIAstillexpectsoilmarketsto
tightenasgrowingliquidfuelsdemandintheemergingeconomiesandslowing
growthinnonOPECsupplymaintainupwardpressureonoilprices. EIAexpects
thatWTIspotprices,whichaveraged$79perbarrelin2010,willaverage$102per
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Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 20114
barrelin2011and$107perbarrelin2012,aboutthesameasexpectedinlastmonths
Outlook(WestTexasIntermediateCrudeOilPriceChart).
GrowingvolumesofCanadiancrudeoilimportedintotheUnitedStatescontributed
torecordhighstoragelevelsatCushing,Oklahomaofover41millionbarrelsatthe
endofMarch2011(86percentofworkingcapacityatCushing),andapricediscountforWTIcomparedwithsimilarqualityworldcrudessuchasBrent. Adiscountfor
WTIisexpectedtopersistuntiltransportationbottlenecksimpactingthemovementof
midcontinentcrudeoiltotheGulfcoastarerelieved. Consequently,theprojected
U.S.refineraverageacquisitioncostofcrudeoil,whichwasabout$2.70perbarrel
belowWTIin2010, is$1.60perbarrelaboveWTIin2011and$1.10perbarrelabove
WTIin2012.
Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(EnergyPriceVolatilityandForecast
Uncertainty).WTI
futures
for
August
2011
delivery
over
the
5day
period
ending
June
2averaged$101.49perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged29percent,establishing
thelowerandupperlimitsofa95percentconfidenceintervalforthemarkets
expectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinJulyof$83perbarreland$124per
barrel,respectively. Lastyearatthistime,WTIforAugust2010deliveryaveraged$75
perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged39percent. Thecorrespondinglowerand
upperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$58perbarreland$97per
barrel.
U.S. CrudeOilandLiquidFuels
U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption. Totalconsumptionofliquidfuelsincreasedby270
thousandbbl/d(1.4percent)duringthefirstquarter2011overthesameperiodthe
yearbefore(U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumptionGrowthChart). Consumptiongrowth
duringthefirstquarterwasledbydistillatefueloil(160thousandbbl/d)andliquefied
petroleumgas(70thousandbbl/d).Motorgasolineconsumptionfellby50thousand
bbl/d. Consumptiongrowthisexpectedtoslowovertheforecast. ProjectedtotalU.S.
liquidfuelsconsumptionincreasesbyanaverage150thousandbbl/d(0.8percent)in
2011,andbyafurther130thousandbbl/d(0.7percent),to19.4millionbbl/din2012,
whichis
still
well
below
the
record
high
20.8
million
bbl/d
in
2005.
Distillate
fuel,
buoyedbycontinuedincreasesinindustrialproduction,accountsfortwothirdsofthe
projectedincreaseinliquidfuelsconsumptionin2011.Motorgasolineisthefastest
growingconsumptioncategoryin2012,reflectinggrowingpopulation,rising
employmentandincome,andapredictedendtotherecentsteeprunupinretail
gasolineprices.
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Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 20115
U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports. Domesticcrudeoilproduction,which
increasedby150thousandbbl/din2010to5.51millionbbl/d,remainsatthatlevelin
2011beforedecliningby80thousandbbl/din2012(U.S.CrudeOilProductionChart).
EIAexpectsthatproductiondeclinesfromtheGOMandAlaskatobeoffsetby
projectedincreasesinlower48nonGOMproductionof230thousandbbl/din2011
and110thousandbbl/din2012becauseofanincreaseinoildirectedonshoredrillingactivity.
BasedontheoutlookfromNOAAforthecurrentAtlantichurricaneseason,EIA
estimatesthemedianoutcomefortotalshutincrudeoilproductionintheGOM
duringtheupcominghurricaneseason(JunethroughNovember)of19millionbarrels
(anaverage105thousandbbl/doverthe6months). Thereisawiderangeof
uncertaintyaroundthisforecast(seethe2011OutlookforHurricaneRelatedProduction
OutagesintheGulfofMexico). Thebulkofoutagesareexpectedduringthelate
summerandearlyfallmonthsofAugust,September,andOctober.
Liquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoilandrefinedproducts)fellfrom57
percentoftotalU.S.consumptionin2008to49percentin2010,primarilybecauseof
thedeclineinconsumptionduringtherecessionandrisingdomesticproduction. EIA
forecaststhatliquidfuelnetimportswillaverage9.4millionbbl/din2011and9.7
millionbbl/din2012,representing49percentand50percentoftotalconsumption,
respectively.
U.S.PetroleumProductPrices. EIAforecaststhattheannualaverageregulargrade
gasolineretailpricewillincreasefrom$2.78pergallonin2010to$3.60pergallonin2011andto$3.67pergallonin2012. Thesizablejumpinretailpricesthisyearreflects
notonlythehigheraveragecostofcrudeoil,butalsoanincreaseinU.S.refinery
marginsongasoline(thedifferencebetweenrefinerywholesalegasolinepricesand
theaveragecostofcrudeoil)fromanaverageof$0.34pergallonin2010to$0.47per
gallonin2011,still6to9centspergallonbelowtherecordmarginssetin2006and
2007. UnexpectedshutdownsofU.S.refiningcapacityinMarchandAprilwitha
largedropingasolinestocksontheEastCoast,alongwithfloodingoftheMississippi
riverinMay,contributedtotheincreaseinmarginsthisyear. Theprojectedrefinery
gasolinemargindeclinesto$0.44pergallonin2012.
EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$2.99pergallon
in2010,willaverage$3.87pergallonin2011and$3.95pergallonin2012. Projected
U.S.refinerydieselfuelmarginsincreaseby21centspergallon,fromanaverage$0.38
pergallonin2010to$0.59pergallonin2011,thenfallto$0.53pergallonin2012.
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NaturalGas
U.S.NaturalGasConsumption. EIAexpectstotalnaturalgasconsumptionwillgrow
by1.4percentto67.1billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2011(U.S.TotalNaturalGas
ConsumptionChart). Forecastindustrialandelectricpowerconsumptionare
expectedtorise3.1percentto18.7Bcf/din2011and0.4percentto20.3Bcf/d,respectively. Growthintheelectricpowersectorin2011issomewhatmoderatedby
expecteddeclinesincoolingdemand,withforecastedcoolingdegreedaysfalling14.2
percentcomparedwithlastyear.
Projectedtotalconsumptionrisesslightlyin2012to67.2Bcf/d. Growthcontinuesin
theindustrialsectorat1.6percent,asthenaturalgasweightedindustrialproduction
indexrises2.7percent.Consumptionalsoincreasesintheelectricpowersector(2.1
percent). Residentialandcommercialconsumption,however,declineby2.8percent
and2.2percent,respectively,stemmingfromtheforecastdeclineinheatingdemand
fornaturalgas.
U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports. The2011productionforecasthasbeen
revisedupwardsignificantlydueinparttounexpectedlystrongMarchproduction
reportedinthelatestEIANaturalGasMonthly. TotalU.S.marketednaturalgas
productionisexpectedtoincreaseby4.5percent(to64.6Bcf/d)in2011,upfrom2.3
percent(to63.2Bcf/d)forecastinlastmonthsOutlook.
Productioncontinuestogrowatastrongpacedespiteasignificantdeclineingas
directeddrillingactivity. AccordingtoBakerHughes,totalworkingnaturalgasrigsnownumber881,down11percentfromtheAugust2010level.However,growthin
oildirecteddrillingactivitycouldleadtosignificantincreasesinassociatednatural
gasproduction. EIAexpectsrisingnaturalgaspricesin2012tocontributetoan
increaseindrillingactivity.
Growingdomesticnaturalgasproductionhasreducedrelianceonnaturalgas
imports,andcontributedtoincreasedexports. EIAexpectsthatpipelinegross
importsofnaturalgaswillfall4.2percentto8.7Bcf/dduring2011andby3.7percent
to8.4Bcf/din2012. IncreasedpipelinegrossexportstoMexicoandCanadaduring
thefirstpartof2011haveledtoanupwardrevisionforboth2011and2012. Pipeline
grossexportsareexpectedtoaverage4.1Bcf/din2011and3.9Bcf/din2012,
comparedtojust3.1Bcfin2010.
EIAprojectsU.S.importsofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)willfallfromanaverage1.2
Bcf/din2010to1.0Bcf/din2011and0.95Bcf/din2012. Becauseoftheearthquakein
Japanandsubsequentnucleargenerationoutages,JapansdemandforLNGasa
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replacementfuelforelectricpowergenerationisexpectedtoincrease,contributingto
higherglobalLNGprices.
U.S.NaturalGasInventories. OnMay27,2011,workingnaturalgasinstoragestood
at2,107Bcf,whichis237BcfbelowlastyearslevelinlateMay(U.S.WorkingNaturalGasinStorageChart). EIAexpectsthatinventories,thoughlowerthanlastyear,will
remainrobustgivenhigherforecastproductionthroughoutthe2011injectionseason.
Projectedinventoriessurpass3.8TcfattheendofOctober2011asaresultofhigh
productionlevelsandamildsummerrelativetolastyear.
U.S.NaturalGasPrices. TheHenryHubspotpriceaveraged$4.31perMMBtuin
May,6centshigherthantheAprilaverageand11centshigherthanforecastinlast
monthsOutlook(HenryHubNaturalGasPriceChart). EIAexpectsthattheHenry
Hubpricewillaverage$4.25perMMBtuin2011,adeclineof13centsfromthe2010
average. EIAexpectsthattheslowinggrowthinproductionwillcontributetoa
tighteningdomesticmarketnextyearwiththeHenryHubpriceaveraging$4.58per
MMBtuin2012.
Uncertaintyovernaturalgaspricesislowerthisyearcomparedtolastyearatthis
time(EnergyPriceVolatilityandForecastUncertainty).Naturalgasfuturesfor
August2011delivery(forthe5dayperiodendingJune2)averaged$4.66perMMBtu,
andtheaverageimpliedvolatilitywas33percent. Thelowerandupperboundsfor
the95percentconfidenceintervalforAugust2011contractsare$3.91perMMBtuand
$5.47perMMBtu. Atthistimelastyear,thenaturalgasAugust2010futurescontractaveraged$4.47perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged47percent. The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$3.22
perMMBtuand$6.20perMMBtu.
Electricity
U.S.ElectricityConsumption. EIAexpectslittlechangeintotalU.S.electricity
consumptionbetween2010and2011(U.S.TotalElectricityConsumptionChart).
Coolingdegreedaysduring2011areassumedtobe14percentlowerthanlastyear,
whichdrivestheprojected2.5percentdeclineinretailelectricitysalestotheresidentialsector. Improvedeconomicconditionsshouldleadtoa3.6percent
increaseinsalestotheindustrialsector,whilecommercialsectorelectricitysalesshow
littlechangein2011. During2012,totalU.S.electricityconsumptiongrowsby2.0
percent.
U.S.ElectricityGeneration. EIAprojectsthattotalgenerationbytheelectricpower
sectorduring2011willremainclosetolastyearslevel(U.S.ElectricPowerSector
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GenerationGrowthChart).Weathereventshavesignificantlyaffectedgeneration
dispatchingpatternsthisspring. Preliminarydataindicatethathydroelectric
generationduringMarchreacheditshighestlevelsince1999asaresultofheavy
precipitationintheNorthwest,whilestrongthunderstormsandtornadoscauseda
numberofunplannednuclearplantoutagesduringApril. Theincreasein
hydroelectricgenerationthisyearcontributestoadeclineintheshareoftotalgenerationfueledbycoalandflatnaturalgasgenerationduring2011. EIAexpectsa
2.0percentincreaseintotalelectricpowersectorgenerationin2012,fueledprimarily
byincreasesincoal andnaturalgasfiredgeneration.
U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices. EIAexpectstheaverageU.S.residentialelectricityprice
torisefrom11.58centsperkilowatthourin2010to11.83centsperkilowatthourthis
year,anincreaseof2.2percent(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPricesChart). Thecostof
coalandnaturalgastotheelectricpowersectorthisyearisexpectedtostayflat,
whichshould
flatten
retail
electricity
prices
next
year
because
of
regulatory
lags
in
the
passthroughofgenerationcoststoretailprices.
Coal
U.S.CoalConsumption. Coalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorgrewby4.5
percentin2010,primarilytheresultofhigherelectricitydemandduringthesummer.
EIAprojectsthatcoalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorwilldecreaseby1.5
percentin2011,aselectricitydemandremainsflatandgenerationfromotherenergy
sourcesincreases. Forecastcoalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorgrowsby2.9
percentin2012(U.S.CoalConsumptionGrowthChart).
U.S.CoalSupply. Coalproductionin2010grewbyonly1.0percentdespitethe5
percentincreaseintotalU.S.coalconsumption. Adrawdowninstocks,particularly
intheelectricpowersector,metthedemandincrease(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoal
StocksChart).EIAprojectsthatcoalproductionwillremainflatin2011,followedbya
2.5percentincreasein2012(U.S.AnnualCoalProductionChart).
U.S.CoalTrade. Strongglobaldemandforcoal,particularlymetallurgicalcoalused
toproducesteel,resultedinsharpincreasesinU.S.coalexportsin2010. U.S.coalexportsroseabout50%duringthefirstquarterof2011comparedto2010,reaching
26.6millionshorttons(mmst),thehighestlevelsince1992.Whilecokingcoalremains
theprimaryexport,exportsofsteamcoalledrecentgrowth,rising160%overthe
sameperiod. EIAexpectsU.S.coalexportstoremainelevatedin2011,particularlyinthefirsthalfoftheyear,reachinganannuallevelof98mmst. ForecastU.S.coal
exportsfallbacktomoretypicalhistoricallevels(approximately80mmst)in2012as
supplyfromothermajorcoalexportingcountriesrecovers.
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Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 20119
EIAalsoexpectsthestrongglobaldemandforcoaltocontinuetosuppresscoal
imports,withimportsatlevelsbelow19mmstinboth2011and2012. U.S.coal
importsaveragedabout31mmstannuallyfrom2004through2009.
U.S.CoalPrices. Electricpowersectordeliveredcoalpriceshavebeenrisingrelativelysteadilyoverthelast10years,reflectinglongertermcoalcontractsinitiated
duringaperiodofhighenergyprices,risingtransportationcosts,andincreased
consumption.However,EIAexpectsthatthepowersectorcoalpricewillremain
stablein2011and2012ascoalcompeteswithnaturalgasforgenerationmarketshare.
Theprojectedpowersectordeliveredcoalprice,whichaveraged$2.26perMMBtuin
2010,averages$2.28perMMBtuand$2.26perMMBtuin2011and2012,respectively.
U.S. CarbonDioxideEmissions
EIAestimatesthatfossilfuelCO2emissionsincreasedby3.8percentin2010(U.S.
CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart). ForecastfossilfuelCO2emissionsremain
flatin2011asemissionincreasesfromhigherpetroleumandnaturalgasconsumption
areoffsetbydeclinesincoalconsumption. Expectedincreasesinconsumptionofall
fossilfuelsin2012contributetoa1.6percentincreaseinfossilfuelCO2emissions.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gif8/6/2019 EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2011
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U.S. Energy Information AdministrationIndependent Statistics & Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Chart Gallery for June 2011
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending June 2, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
dollars per barrel
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices
Forecast
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes
dollars per gallon
Retail Regular Gasoline
Crude Oil
dollarsper gallon
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U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices
Forecast
1.30
1.80
2.30
2.80
3.30
3.80
4.30
4.80
Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes
dollars per gallon
Retail Diesel Fuel
Crude Oil
dollarsper gallon
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for 5 trading days ending June 2, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
dollars per million btu
Natural Gas Prices
Forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012
Residential priceHenry Hub spot price
Composite wellhead price
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
dollars per thousand cubic feet
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World Liquid Fuels Consumption
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.01.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
China United States Other Countries
Total consumption
Annual growth
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Forecast
million barrels per day million barrels per day
World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth
(change from previous year)
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2010 2011 2012
OECD* Non-OECD Asia FSU** and Eastern Europe Other
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
* Countries belonging to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development** Former Soviet Union
Forecast
million barrels per day
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2010 2011 2012
OPEC countries Russia and Caspian Sea
North America Latin America
North Sea Other Non-OPEC
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Forecast
million barrels per day
World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
(change from previous year)
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Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
(change from previous year)
-0.4
-0.3-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Canada
China
UnitedStates
Brazil
Colombia
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
Russia
Vietnam
India
Oman
Sudan
Egypt
Syria
Gabon
Australia
OtherNorthSea
Malaysia
Mexico
Norway
UnitedKingdom
2012
2011
2010
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
million barrels per day
World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production
(change from previous year)
Forecast
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100World oil consumption (left axis)
Non-OPEC production (left axis)
WTI crude oil price (right axis)
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
millions of barrels per day dollars per barrel
OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Forecast
Note: Shaded area represents 2000-2010 average (2.7 million barrels per day)
million barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
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OECD Commercial Oil Stocks
Forecast
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
0
Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum obeserved inventories from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.
days of supply
U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Fuel ethanol Crude oil Liquified petroleum gas and pentanes plus
Total production
Annual change
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Forecast
Total production
million barrels per day
Change from prior year
(million barrels per day)
U.S. Crude Oil Stocks
Forecast
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012
Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
0
million barrels
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U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth
(change from previous year)
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2010 2011 2012
Total Motor gasoline Jet fuel Distillate fuel Other
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Note: Percent change labels refer to total petroleum products growth
2.0% 0.8% 0.7%
Forecastthousand barrels per day
U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories
Forecast
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012
Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.
Total motor gasoline inventory
Total distillate fuel inventory
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
0
million barrels
U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption
3.9%
-4.4%
3.5%
0.2%
-1.4% -1.5%
6.5%
0.5%
5.7%
1.4%0.3%
-1.6%
-3.2%
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Consumption
Annual growth
Forecast
billion cubic feet per day change from prior year
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U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage
Forecast
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012
Deviation from 2005 - 2009 average
Storage level
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
billion cubic feet
U.S. Coal Consumption Growth
(change from previous year)
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2010 2011 2012
Total consumption Electric power sector Retail and general industry Coke plants
Forecast
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
U.S. Annual Coal Production
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total U.S. Western region
Appalachian region Interior region
Forecast
million short tons
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
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U.S. Electric Power Coal Stocks
Forecast
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jan
2003
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
0
million short tons
U.S. Total Electricity Consumption
2.8%
-0.7%
2.1%0.8% 1.2%
2.8%
0.2%
1.9%
-0.9%
-3.4%
4.3%
0.0%
2.0%
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Annual growth
Consumption
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Forecast
billion kilowatthours per day change from prior year
U.S. Residential Electricity Price
0.9%
4.2%
-1.6%
3.2% 2.6%
5.4%
10.3%
2.4%
5.7%
2.2%0.6%
2.2%0.1%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
-6%
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
30%
36%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Annual growth
Monthly average electricity priceForecast
cents per kilowatthourchange from prior year
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U.S. Electric Power Sector Generation Growth
(change from previous year)
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2010 2011 2012
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydropower Other Renewables
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Note: Percent change labels refer to growth in total generation. Not all generation sources are shown.
4.2% -0.3% 2.0%
Forecast
gigawatt-hours per day
U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share
of Gross Domestic Product
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Forecast
U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth
(change from previous year)
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
2010 2011 2012
All Fossil Fuels Coal Petroleum Natural Gas
Forecast
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
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U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days
(population-weighted)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
2008
2009
20102011
2012
Normal
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days
(population-weighted)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Normal
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Servicehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
Pacific
East
South
Central
South
Atlantic
Middle
Atlantic
New
England
West
South
Central
West
North
Central
East
North
CentralMountain
WAMT
WID
NV
UT
CO
AZ
NM
TX
OK
IA
KS MO ILIN
KY
TN
MSAL
FL
GASC
NC
WV
PA
NY
VTME
NJ
MD
DE
CTRIMA
NH
VA
W
MI
OH
NE
SD
MNND
AR
LA
OR
CA
AKPacific
HIPacific
WEST MIDWEST NORTHEAST
SOUTH
REGION
Division
LEGEND
State
U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011
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Q2 Q3 Season Q2 Q3 Season Q2 Q3 Season
Nominal Prices (dollars per gallon)
WTI Crude Oil (Spot)a
1.85 1.81 1.83 2.48 2.48 2.48 33.9 36.7 35.3 Imported Crude Oil Price
b1.77 1.75 1.76 2.53 2.52 2.53 42.8 44.6 43.7
U.S. Refiner Average Crude Oil Cost 1.79 1.76 1.78 2.53 2.52 2.53 41.0 43.1 42.0
Wholesale Gasoline Pricec
2.18 2.10 2.14 3.13 3.01 3.07 43.9 43.4 43.6
Wholesale Diesel Fuel Pricec 2.20 2.15 2.17 3.15 3.10 3.13 43.1 44.4 43.8
Regular Gasoline Retail Priced
2.81 2.72 2.76 3.82 3.68 3.75 36.3 35.3 35.8
Diesel Fuel Retail Priced 3.03 2.94 2.98 4.01 3.92 3.97 32.6 33.4 33.0
Gasoline Consumption/Supply (million barrels per day)
Total Consumption 9.201 9.288 9.245 9.171 9.323 9.248 -0.3 0.4 0.0
Total Refinery and Blender Outpute
7.604 7.699 7.652 7.473 7.691 7.583 -1.7 -0.1 -0.9
Fuel Ethanol Blending 0.858 0.879 0.868 0.876 0.879 0.877 2.1 0.1 1.1
Total Stock Withdrawalf
0.101 -0.049 0.026 0.016 0.090 0.053
Net Imports f 0.639 0.759 0.700 0.807 0.663 0.735 26.3 -12.7 5.0
Refinery Utilization (percent) 89.0 88.8 88.9 85.1 87.8 86.5
Gasoline Stocks, Including Blending Components (million barrels)
Beginning 224.0 214.8 224.0 214.9 213.4 214.9
Ending 214.8 219.3 219.3 213.4 205.2 205.2
Economic Indicators (annualized billion 2000 dollars)
Real GDP 13,195 13,279 13,237 13,551 13,654 13,602 2.7 2.8 2.8
Real Income 10,252 10,277 10,264 10,434 10,475 10,454 1.8 1.9 1.8
Year-over-year Change
(percent)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- June 2011
Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook
2010 2011
Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: EIA,Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-
0035; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP and income); Reuters News Service (WTI crude oil spotprice).
Macroeconomic projections are based on IHS Global Insight Macroeconomic Forecast Model.
eRefinery and blender net production plus finished motor gasoline adjustment.
fTotal stock withdrawal and net imports includes both finished gasoline and gasoline blend components.
GDP = gross domestic product.
Notes: Minor discrepancies with other Energy Information Administration (EIA) published historical data are due to rounding. Historical data
are printed in bold. Forecasts are in italic. The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
aSpot Price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
bCost of imported crude oil to U.S. refiners.
cPrice product sold by refiners to resellers.
d Average pump price including taxes.
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Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
million barrels per day) .............................. 5.47 5.48 5.49 5.61 5.57 5.54 5.41 5.54 5.55 5.48 5.34 5.39 5.51 5.51 5.44
Dry Natural Gas Production
billion cubic feet per day) ........................... 57.93 58.56 59.28 60.66 60.95 62.62 61.85 61.73 61.75 61.56 61.62 62.19 59.12 61.79 61.78
Coal Production
million short tons) ....................................... 265 265 278 277 271 263 275 275 284 270 281 278 1,085 1,085 1,112
Energy Consumption
iquid Fuels
million barrels per day) .............................. 18.82 19.01 19.49 19.26 19.09 19.21 19.52 19.38 19.33 19.32 19.58 19.50 19.15 19.30 19.43
Natural Gas
billion cubic feet per day) ........................... 83.41 54.42 57.93 68.95 83.78 55.68 57.84 71.19 83.39 55.77 58.55 71.29 66.12 67.06 67.24
Coal (b)
million short tons) ....................................... 265 247 286 250 254 245 275 258 275 245 283 260 1,048 1,032 1,064
Electricity
billion kilowatt hours per day) .................... 10.61 10.02 12.01 9.92 10.60 10.13 11.81 10.04 10.86 10.31 12.03 10.23 10.64 10.65 10.86
Renewables (c)
quadrillion Btu) ........................................... 1.77 1.95 1.80 1.84 2.06 2.24 2.03 1.90 2.02 2.21 2.04 2.03 7.36 8.23 8.31
Total Energy Consumption (d)
quadrillion Btu) ........................................... 25.75 22.96 24.65 25.04 26.02 23.52 24.60 25.12 26.62 23.68 24.95 25.44 98.41 99.27 100.69
Energy Prices
Crude Oil (e)
dollars per barrel) ....................................... 75.89 75.34 74.05 81.70 94.01 106.21 105.98 107.50 108.50 107.50 108.00 108.50 76.72 103.54 108.12
Natural Gas Wellhead
dollars per thousand cubic feet) ................. 4.79 4.07 4.11 3.67 3.99 3.94 3.98 4.28 4.35 4.06 4.23 4.57 4.15 4.05 4.30
Coal
dollars per million Btu) ............................... 2.26 2.26 2.28 2.25 2.35 2.29 2.26 2.21 2.29 2.27 2.25 2.22 2.26 2.28 2.26
Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product
billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) ......... 13,139 13,195 13,279 13,381 13,439 13,551 13,654 13,771 13,855 13,934 14,031 14,139 13,248 13,603 13,990
Percent change from prior year ................... 2.4 3.0 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.8
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
ndex, 2005=100) ........................................ 110.0 110.5 111.1 111.2 111.7 112.6 113.1 113.3 113.7 113.9 114.5 115.1 110.7 112.7 114.3
Percent change from prior year ................... 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.8 1.5
Real Disposable Personal Income
billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) ......... 10,113 10,252 10,277 10,324 10,399 10,434 10,475 10,532 10,487 10,573 10,618 10,668 10,241 10,460 10,587
Percent change from prior year ................... 0.7 0.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 2.1 1.2
Manufacturing Production Index
ndex, 2007=100) ........................................ 85.0 86.9 88.1 89.0 91.1 92.3 94.2 95.6 96.5 97.2 98.1 98.8 87.3 93.3 97.6
Percent change from prior year ................... 2.2 7.5 7.2 6.6 7.1 6.2 6.8 7.4 6.0 5.2 4.2 3.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
Weather
U.S. Heating Degree-Days .......................... 2,311 422 68 1,659 2,285 515 100 1,632 2,249 537 100 1,618 4,460 4,532 4,504
U.S. Cooling Degree-Days .......................... 12 445 937 73 33 377 771 77 35 344 778 83 1,467 1,258 1,240
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226;Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; andInternational Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2;Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208;Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380;Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010 2011 2012 Year
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).
c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
= no data availablePrices are not adjusted for inflation.
a) Includes lease condensate.
b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
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Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)
West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ........................... 78.64 77.79 76.05 85.10 93.50 104.14 104.00 106.00 107.00 106.00 107.00 108.00 79.40 101.91 10
Imported Average ............................................................. 75.28 74.33 73.32 81.03 94.27 106.18 105.99 107.50 108.50 107.50 108.00 108.50 75.87 103.64 10
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost .................................... 75.89 75.34 74.05 81.70 94.01 106.21 105.98 107.50 108.50 107.50 108.00 108.50 76.72 103.54 10
iquid Fuels (cents per gallon)
Refiner Prices for Resale
Gasoline ........................................................................ 211 218 210 227 267 313 301 293 299 309 304 295 217 294
Diesel Fuel .................................................................... 209 220 215 240 286 315 310 311 308 308 311 314 221 306
Heating Oil .................................................................... 205 212 204 234 275 306 303 309 309 306 306 311 215 295
Refiner Prices to End Users
Jet Fuel ......................................................................... 210 219 214 238 287 316 309 311 309 307 310 313 220 306
No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................................ 172 170 166 182 218 241 242 246 247 244 246 251 173 236
Propane to Petrochemical Sector .................................
Retail Prices Including Taxes
Gasoline Regular Grade (b) .......................................... 271 281 272 288 329 382 368 357 362 374 372 360 278 360
Gasoline All Grades (b) ................................................. 277 286 277 294 335 388 373 363 367 379 377 365 283 365
On-highway Diesel Fuel ................................................ 285 303 294 315 363 401 392 393 393 394 396 399 299 387
Heating Oil .................................................................... 292 293 282 310 359 391 390 401 410 404 400 408 298 378
Propane .........................................................................
Natural Gas
Average Wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ...... 4.79 4.07 4.11 3.67 3.99 3.94 3.98 4.28 4.35 4.06 4.23 4.57 4.15 4.05
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) .......... 5.30 4.45 4.41 3.91 4.31 4.38 4.24 4.59 4.80 4.40 4.60 5.08 4.52 4.38
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per Million Btu) .................... ..... 5.15 4.32 4.28 3.80 4.18 4.25 4.12 4.45 4.66 4.27 4.46 4.93 4.39 4.25
End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Industrial Sector ............................................................ 6.51 4.98 5.07 4.89 5.40 5.23 5.25 5.87 6.25 5.44 5.51 6.22 5.40 5.44
Commercial Sector ....................................................... 9.30 9.25 9.63 8.66 8.66 9.04 9.63 9.83 9.71 9.73 10.19 10.27 9.14 9.18
Residential Sector ......................................................... 10.59 12.54 15.47 10.56 9.98 12.00 15.98 12.11 11.08 12.66 16.64 12.66 11.18 11.35 1Electricity
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal ............................................................................... 2.26 2.26 2.28 2.25 2.35 2.29 2.26 2.21 2.29 2.27 2.25 2.22 2.26 2.28
Natural Gas .............................. ..................... ............... 6.06 4.89 4.88 4.69 5.05 4.88 5.02 5.28 5.51 5.09 5.29 5.63 5.08 5.05
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ...................................................... 12.10 12.36 12.36 14.19 15.58 17.55 17.80 18.03 18.30 18.32 18.21 18.13 12.63 17.40 1
Distillate Fuel Oil ........................................................... 15.84 16.48 16.18 17.94 20.82 23.34 23.39 23.74 23.66 23.47 23.67 23.88 16.60 22.74 2
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Industrial Sector ............................................................ 6.53 6.75 7.17 6.67 6.67 6.76 7.15 6.68 6.56 6.79 7.20 6.73 6.79 6.82
Commercial Sector ....................................................... 9.87 10.30 10.71 10.06 10.02 10.42 10.90 10.22 10.02 10.46 10.96 10.29 10.26 10.41 1
Residential Sector ......................................................... 10.88 11.90 12.02 11.50 11.25 12.06 12.32 11.65 11.11 12.11 12.37 11.75 11.58 11.83 1
c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
b) Average self-service cash price.
Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010 2011 2012 Year
This price series discontinued beginning with the June 2011 edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook. This row will no longer appear
beginning with the July 2011 edition.
This price series discontinued beginning with the June 2011 edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook. This row will no longer appear
beginning with the July 2011 edition.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
a) Average for all sulfur contents.
= no data available
Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035.
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Supply (million barrels per day) (a)
OECD ................................................ 21.44 21.30 20.97 21.83 21.54 21.64 21.15 21.38 21.58 21.45 21.11 21.30 21.39 21.43 2
U.S. (50 States) ............................. 9.46 9.56 9.67 9.91 9.77 9.73 9.63 9.75 9.69 9.66 9.57 9.62 9.65 9.72
Canada .......................................... 3.45 3.58 3.55 3.77 3.75 3.75 3.71 3.82 3.93 3.95 3.99 4.02 3.59 3.76
Mexico ............................................ 2.95 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.91 2.87 2.81 2.81 2.86 2.84 2.82 2.81 2.90 2.85
North Sea (b) ................................. 4.08 3.74 3.36 3.76 3.68 3.79 3.49 3.51 3.61 3.51 3.23 3.38 3.73 3.62
Other OECD ................................... 1.51 1.54 1.53 1.49 1.44 1.50 1.50 1.47 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.47 1.52 1.48
Non-OECD ........................................ 64.55 65.29 66.14 65.82 66.03 66.32 66.22 66.45 67.53 67.69 67.93 68.48 65.46 66.26 6
OPEC ............................................. 34.51 35.02 35.71 35.35 35.48 35.16 35.41 35.55 36.08 36.20 36.56 37.12 35.15 35.40 3
Crude Oil Portion ........................ 29.40 29.65 30.15 29.85 29.77 29.11 29.34 29.37 29.70 29.78 30.11 30.63 29.77 29.40 3Other Liquids ............................... 5.11 5.37 5.57 5.49 5.70 6.05 6.07 6.18 6.38 6.42 6.45 6.49 5.39 6.00
Former Soviet Union ...................... 13.11 13.15 13.18 13.22 13.27 13.51 13.36 13.39 13.65 13.53 13.37 13.28 13.17 13.38 1
China .............................................. 4.16 4.23 4.31 4.37 4.31 4.45 4.41 4.45 4.51 4.56 4.57 4.58 4.27 4.41
Other Non-OECD ........................... 12.78 12.88 12.94 12.89 12.98 13.20 13.05 13.06 13.29 13.40 13.43 13.51 12.87 13.07 1
Total World Supply ............................ 86.00 86.59 87.11 87.65 87.57 87.96 87.37 87.82 89.11 89.13 89.04 89.79 86.84 87.68 8
Non-OPEC Supply ............................ 51.49 51.56 51.40 52.31 52.10 52.81 51.96 52.28 53.02 52.93 52.48 52.67 51.69 52.28 5
Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)
OECD ................................................ 45.79 45.09 46.55 46.66 46.29 45.07 46.24 46.81 46.81 45.19 45.96 46.64 46.03 46.11 4
U.S. (50 States) ............................. 18.82 19.01 19.49 19.26 19.09 19.21 19.52 19.38 19.33 19.32 19.58 19.50 19.15 19.30 1
U.S. Territories ............................... 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
Canada .......................................... 2.19 2.21 2.28 2.26 2.29 2.18 2.29 2.28 2.30 2.21 2.32 2.32 2.24 2.26
Europe ............................................ 14.18 14.12 14.79 14.69 14.17 14.01 14.48 14.59 14.17 13.82 14.28 14.40 14.45 14.32 1
Japan ............................................. 4.79 4.04 4.33 4.54 4.85 3.95 4.33 4.65 4.93 4.00 4.03 4.40 4.42 4.44
Other OECD ................................... 5.55 5.44 5.38 5.64 5.62 5.45 5.36 5.64 5.80 5.57 5.47 5.76 5.50 5.52 Non-OECD ........................................ 39.63 41.14 40.92 41.08 41.52 42.78 42.94 42.05 43.21 44.26 44.30 43.70 40.70 42.32 4
Former Soviet Union ...................... 4.32 4.34 4.49 4.45 4.42 4.47 4.62 4.58 4.50 4.55 4.71 4.67 4.40 4.52
Europe ............................................ 0.79 0.77 0.83 0.83 0.78 0.76 0.81 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.82 0.82 0.80 0.79
China .............................................. 8.88 9.31 8.89 9.60 9.65 10.11 10.02 9.71 10.32 10.58 10.44 10.34 9.17 9.87 1
Other Asia ...................................... 9.81 9.93 9.47 9.69 10.18 10.20 9.74 9.97 10.40 10.42 9.95 10.18 9.72 10.02 1
Other Non-OECD ........................... 15.83 16.79 17.25 16.52 16.49 17.24 17.74 16.97 17.19 17.93 18.38 17.69 16.60 17.11 1
Total World Consumption ................. 85.41 86.23 87.47 87.75 87.81 87.85 89.18 88.86 90.02 89.44 90.26 90.34 86.73 88.43 9
nventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)
U.S. (50 States) ................................ -0.03 -0.65 -0.20 0.69 0.27 -0.36 -0.09 0.56 0.07 -0.39 -0.13 0.54 -0.05 0.09
Other OECD ...................................... -0.16 -0.38 0.36 0.19 -0.10 0.09 0.73 0.19 0.33 0.26 0.50 0.00 0.01 0.23
Other Stock Draws and Balance ...... -0.39 0.68 0.19 -0.78 0.07 0.15 1.17 0.29 0.51 0.44 0.84 0.01 -0.08 0.42
Total Stock Draw ............................ -0.58 -0.35 0.36 0.09 0.24 -0.11 1.81 1.03 0.91 0.31 1.22 0.55 -0.12 0.75
End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
U.S. Commercial Inventory .............. 1,053 1,112 1,130 1,067 1,043 1,075 1,084 1,033 1,026 1,062 1,073 1,024 1,067 1,033 OECD Commercial Inventory ........... 2,649 2,742 2,727 2,647 2,632 2,656 2,597 2,529 2,492 2,504 2,470 2,420 2,647 2,529
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data
Service, latest monthly release.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109.
Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011
2010 2011 2012 Year
= no data available
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
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1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2010 2011 2
North America ................................... 15.86 16.02 16.09 16.58 16.42 16.35 16.15 16.39 16.48 16.45 16.37 16.45 16.14 16.33 1
Canada ................................................ 3.45 3.58 3.55 3.77 3.75 3.75 3.71 3.82 3.93 3.95 3.99 4.02 3.59 3.76
Mexico .................................................. 2.95 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.91 2.87 2.81 2.81 2.86 2.84 2.82 2.81 2.90 2.85
United States ....................................... 9.46 9.56 9.67 9.91 9.77 9.73 9.63 9.75 9.69 9.66 9.57 9.62 9.65 9.72
Central and South America .. .. .. .. .. .. 4.72 4.80 4.80 4.81 4.90 5.11 4.99 5.00 5.08 5.22 5.25 5.27 4.78 5.00
Argentina ............................................. 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.73 0.77 0.78 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.78 0.77
Brazil .................................................... 2.68 2.75 2.75 2.80 2.80 2.96 2.87 2.86 2.89 3.02 3.02 3.04 2.74 2.87
Colombia .............................................. 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.83 0.88 0.91 0.91 0.93 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.01 0.80 0.91 Other Central and S. America ............. 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.46 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46
Europe ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 4.92 4.60 4.23 4.64 4.55 4.63 4.32 4.34 4.44 4.34 4.06 4.21 4.60 4.46
Norway ................................................. 2.32 2.11 1.93 2.18 2.10 2.27 2.14 2.06 2.14 2.12 1.98 2.03 2.13 2.14
United Kingdom (offshore) .................. 1.46 1.35 1.18 1.30 1.29 1.24 1.08 1.18 1.20 1.12 1.00 1.09 1.32 1.20
Other North Sea .................................. 0.30 0.29 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.28 0.28
FSU and Eastern Europe ................. 13.11 13.15 13.18 13.22 13.27 13.51 13.36 13.39 13.65 13.53 13.37 13.28 13.17 13.38 1
Azerbaijan ............................................ 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.00 1.16 1.20 1.19 1.23 1.20 1.15 1.13 1.04 1.14