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El Futuro Económico de América Latina: ¿Hecho en China?
2012 Latin American Cities Conferences
“Panama: Where the World Meets”
Ciudad de Panamá 2 de marzo del 2012
Augusto de la Torre Economista Jefe América Latina y el Caribe
Desacoplamiento cíclico – centro vs. periferia
2 Note: The group of developed countries refers to OECD countries excluding Turkey, Mexico, Republic of Korea, and Central European countries. Source: CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis).
51%38%
27%
34%44%
57%
8% 7% 8%8% 11% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996-2001 2001-2006 2009-2011
Contribution to World Economic GDPas a % of World GDP increase (PPP)
Others Other Advanced EconomiesEM - 20 Euro (15)+US+Japan+Canada+UK
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
World Industrial ProductionIndex Apr-08 = 100
CrisisAdvanced Economies (a)Emerging Economies
Cambios tectónicos en la distribución de la actividad económica global
3 Source: IMF WEO (September 2011)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Share of World GDP
Advanced economies
Emerging and developing economies
China
Para el 2030, los países emergentes y en desarrollo contribuirán 2/3 de la
actividad económica global
¿Cambiará el bajo número de países que logran liberase de la “trampa del mediano ingreso”?
4 Source: “China 2030” joint report by the World Bank and the Development Research Ceneter of the People’s Republic of China (2012).
5
Crecimiento reciente y pronósticos para el 2012
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Jam
aica
El S
alvad
orTr
in. &
Tob
.G
uate
mala
Nica
ragu
aM
exico
Braz
ilLA
CA
rgen
tina
Cost
a Rica
Boliv
iaE
cuad
orPa
ragu
ayVe
nezu
elaCh
ileU
rugu
ayCo
lom
bia
Dom
. Rep
.Pe
ruPa
nam
a
Actual Growth and Growth Forecast: LAC CountriesWeighted Averages for LAC
2011e
2012f
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
High Income
South Africa
Europe & Central
Asia
Latin America & Caribbean
East Asian Tigers
India China
GD
P pe
r cap
ita P
PP
% G
row
th R
ate
Real GDP Growth Forecasts Around the WorldAnnual Real GDP Growth Rate, Weighted Averages
2010 2011 2012 GDP per capita PPP
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug
-11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
12
LAC 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts Evolution In %
LAC (weighted average)
Panama
Sources: Consensus Forecast (Feb-2012).
El crecimiento tendencial (no solo el cíclico) de LAC se desacopló en la última década
6 Notes: In Panel B, High Performance EAP includes Korea Rep., Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore; Low Performance EAP includes Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia; LAC includes the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, and Paraguay. The weights are calculated using the 2007 nominal GDP. Source: Penn World Tables.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%19
6119
6319
6519
6719
6919
7119
7319
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
07
Cyclical Adjusted Growth
High-Income
Latin America
7
El super-ciclo de commodities ciertamente ayudó…
-20% 10% 40% 70% 100% 130%
Honduras
Costa Rica
Panama
Jamaica
Brazil
Guatemala
Mexico
Uruguay
Colombia
LAC
Argentina
Ecuador
Chile
Peru
Cumulative Change in Terms of TradeMonthly Data, Avg. 2002Q1 vs. Avg. 2011Q1
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Oil
WTI
, Cur
rent
US$
Whe
at, C
oppe
r and
Soyb
ean,
In
dex 0
1-Jan
-05=
100
Commodity PricesOil WTI in Current US$, Wheat, Copper and Soybean: Index base
Jan-05=100
Sources: Bloomberg and World Bank Global Economic Monitor
Alrededor del 93% de la población de LAC y 97%
de su actividad económica está en países exportadores netos de commodities
Ha sido el ciclo más comprehensivo y largo desde
que hay data, afectando al mayor número de países en LAC
Pero las mejoras en la política económica son también una parte importante de esta historia
8 Notes: In Panel B, High Performance EAP includes Korea Rep., Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore; Low Performance EAP includes Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia; LAC includes the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, and Paraguay. The weights are calculated using the 2007 nominal GDP. Source: Penn World Tables.
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
HondurasEcuadorParaguay
NicaraguaGuatemala
JamaicaChile
MexicoUruguay
El SalvadorLAC
ColombiaCosta Rica
BoliviaArgentina
BrazilIndonesia
Dom. Rep.Peru
TailandPanamaChina*
Total Factor Productivity Growth in LAC and EAPAverage Annual Trend-Growth in TFP During 2000-7, in %)
Desigual desempeño económico en la región La heterogeneidad ha ido mutando en la última década
9 Sources: Potential GPD is computed as the average rate of growth between 2007 and 2003. Simple averages are used to construct the composite. The categorization of each group is as follow: Slow-growth are those countries that showed a less than 3.5% in their 2011-2008 GDP real growth rate; Medium-growth are those between 3.5% and 10%: High-growth are those with 10% or more. WEO (September– 2011).
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
PanamaGDP Index 2002=100
Panama
2003-2007 trend
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Low-Growth CountriesGDP Index 2002=100
Actual
2003-2007 Trend
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Intermediate-Growth CountriesGDP Index 2002=100
Actual
2003-2007 Trend
80
100
120
140
160
180
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
High Growth CountriesGDP Index 2002=100
Actual
2003-2007 Trend
Desigual desempeño económico Importa menos la ubicación que la conexión
10 Sources: World Bank’s World Development Indicators – WDI (December 2010), IMF's World Economic Outlook – WEO (April 2011), and Consensus Forecasts (June 2011) – Latest available forecasts. Potential GDP is calculated computing the annual average real growth rate for the 2002-2007 to 2007 GDP. Weighted averages (2007 Nominal GDP in USD Billions).
(Geometric) Mean growth
2003-2007Simple Average
(Geometric) Mean growth
2007-2009Simple Average
(Geometric) Mean growth
2009-2012Simple Average
Min. 2009-2012
Max. 2009-2012
Low growth (13) 4.9% -1.6% 1.3% -0.1% 4.3%Medium growth (7) 4.5% 1.7% 3.4% 2.6% 4.4%Panama 8.8% 9.5% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%High growth (12) 5.9% 4.5% 6.0% 4.5% 8.7%LAC (all countries) 4.8% 1.1% 3.5% -0.1% 8.7%
Low growth: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, El Salvador, Grenada, Jamaica, Mexico, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela
Intermediate growth: Belize, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua
High growth: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Panama , Paraguay, Peru, Suriname and Uruguay
11
Mucho del futuro económico de LAC dependerá de la forma como se re-conecte, no solo con China
Sources: WDI, and WITS COMTRADE.
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Jan-0
4
Jun-
04
Nov
-04
Apr-0
5
Sep-
05
Feb-
06
Jul-0
6
Dec
-06
May
-07
Oct
-07
Mar
-08
Aug-
08
Jan-0
9
Jun-
09
Nov
-09
Apr-1
0
Sep-
10
Feb-
11
Jul-1
1
Industrial Production: Latin America w.r.t Asia, US and Europe
AsiaUSEurope
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Output Co-Movement Between LAC and China20 years rolling correlation of the Real GDP Growth
Brazil Chile ColombiaMexico Peru ArgentinaPanama Guatemala
El pasado no es inspirador en este sentido 100 años de soledad en el crecimiento
12 Sources: Penn World Tables.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%19
0019
0519
1019
1519
2019
2519
3019
3519
4019
4519
5019
5519
6019
6519
7019
7519
8019
8519
9019
9520
0020
0520
10
GDP Per Capita of Relative to the USSelected Regions, Weighted Averages
LAC EAP: High Income Panama
WashingtonDissensus
Gold Standard Period
Interwar Period Import Substitution WashingtonConsensus
LostDecade
Síndrome de bajo crecimiento ha sido generalizado
13 Notes: Maddison (2007-2009) was used from 1900 to 2006 and Real Per Capita GDP growth from WDI was used to calculate the levels from 2006 to 2010. Source: LCRCE Staff calculations based on Maddison (2007, 2009) and WDI.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Diverging
Venezuela Argentina Uruguay
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Fluctuating
Mexico Brazil
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Non-Converging
Colombia Guatemala El Salvador Bolivia Paraguay
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Semi - Converging
Chile Dominican Republic Panama
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Infla
tion
GDP Growth
Inflation and GrowthGDP and CPI trend growth
EAP Countries
LAC Countries
Others
La máquina económica de LAC no ha sido capaz de aumentar la velocidad sin recalentarse
14 Source: Barro-Lee (2010), US Energy Information Administration Source: IMF WEO (September 2011)
LAC: ¿mejor sustento social para la agenda de crecimiento?
15 Source: LCSPP based on Socio-Economic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEDLAS and The World Bank).
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
20
25
30
35
40
45
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
GDP P
er Ca
pita
US D
ollar
s
Mod
erate
Pove
rty R
ate
US$ 4
a Da
y
Per Capita GDP Growth and Poverty LAC Countries
Poverty Headcount GDP Per Capita
LAC: The Rise of the Middle Class
Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Acumulación – ahorro e inversión
16 Source: Penn World Tables and World Development Indicators.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
% o
f G
DP
Investment Decade Average
LAC-7
EAP
Panama
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
% o
f G
DP
Gross Domestic SavingsDecade Average
LAC-7
EAP
Panama
Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Acumulación – capital humano
17 Source: Author’s calculation based on Household datasets and Barro-Lee (2010)
19.3
40.9
29.7
10
East Asian Tigers1990
16.4
51
23.1
9.5
LAC-71990
9.7
29.3
40.7
20.3
East Asian Tigers2010
7.9
40.3
37.5
14.2
LAC-72010
12.2
43.830.2
13.8
Panama1990
No SchoolPrimarySecondaryTertiary
6
31.9
39.4
22.7
Panama2010
Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Acumulación – capital humano (calidad)
18
ARG
AUSAUT
AZE
BEL
BRA
BGRCHL
COL
HRV
CZE DNKEST
FIN
FRADEU
GRC
HKG
HUN
ISL
IDN
IRL
ISR
ITA
JPN
JOR
KOR
KGZ
LVALTU LUX
MAC
MEX
NLDNZL
NOR POL
PRT
ROM
SVK
SVN
ESP
SWE
CHE
THA
TUN
TUR
GBR
USA
URY
300
350
400
450
500
550
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Mat
hem
atic
s sco
re in
PIS
A 20
06
Expenditure per student, primary (% of GDP per capita)
Education Gap
Source: Mathematics score from Pisa (2006). Expenditure per Student, primary (% GDP) is the most recent data available in WDI (2004 for most of the countries). Public expenditure per student is the public current spending on education divided by the total number of students in the primary level.
Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Acumulación – capital físico
19 Source: Barro-Lee (2010), US Energy Information Administration
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Electricity Installed CapacityIn thousands of KW per 1000 people, simple averages
EAP
LAC7 + URY
Panama
0.0000
0.0010
0.0020
0.0030
0.0040
0.0050
0.0060
0.0070
0.0080
0.0090
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Road DensityIn thousands of KM per 1000 people, simple average
LAC7 + URY Panama
Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Productividad – cambio tecnológico
20 Source: Mathematics score from Pisa (2006). Expenditure per Student, primary (% GDP) is the most recent data available in WDI (2004 for most of the countries). Public expenditure per student is the public current spending on education divided by the total number of students in the primary level.
21
Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Productividad – instituciones
Source: D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi 2003: G
Panama
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010
Control of Corruption
Others
LAC
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010
Rule of Law
Others
LAC
Panama
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010
Regulatory Quality
Others
LAC
Panama
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010
Government Effectiveness
Others
LAC
Panama
Panamá: ¿camino a ser el Singapur de las Américas?
22
Singapore
PanamaSri Lanka
Jamaica
BahamasDominican Rep.
Costa Rica Guatemala
Uruguay ChilePeru
Egypt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Shipping Conectivity and GDP
GDP (US$B) 2009
Line
r Shi
ppin
g C
onec
tivity
Inde
x, 20
10 (M
ax 2
004=
100)
TransshipmentCenters , Hubs
& Canals
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sing
apor
e
Net
herla
nds
Spai
n
Japa
n
Pana
ma
Jam
aica
Col
ombi
a
Bah
amas
Dom
inic
an R
ep.
Liner Shipping Connectivity Index
LSC
I201
0 (M
axim
um 2
004=
100)
Global players
Regional Transshipment Centers
Source: UNCTAD.