Election Campaign 2014: What the PSA UMR Survey told us

about our members and their concerns

May 2014Conor TwyfordPSA Campaign Organiser

Background information

• Main purpose – to test members’ issues of concern, enrolment status, voting patterns and social media use

• 1,000 PSA members completed the survey by email during 1st week of March

• Comparable with UMR’s NZ-wide fortnightly Omnibus survey

1. What are our members

concerned about?

What is the biggest single issue facing NZ?

What should the PSA campaign on?

2. Enrolment and voting

… or, the world is run bythose who turn up

Are you enrolled to vote?

In the 2008 election, only 81% of young Kiwis were registered to vote – the number of unenrolled (19% or 78,000) was nearly as many as all the other age groups combined.

In the 2011 election, only 77% of New Zealanders aged 18 to 24 were enrolled by the Friday before polls closed.

% Yes No Unsure

PSA 18-39 88 6 6

PSA all 91 3 7

NZ 18-24 77

NZ generally 94

Source: UMR, Statistics NZ

Young people and non-voting

Non-voting by age (in %)

Non-voting by age (%)

In New Zealand elections since 1987, 25 – 40% of eligible voters under the age of 25 have not voted. In 2011, 42 percent of people aged 18–24 years DID NOT VOTE

Source: http://thepulse.org.nz/me/my-rights/political/voting-habit/

Did you vote in the 2011 general election or were you unable to for some reason?

% Yes No Unsure

PSA 18-39 80 16 4

PSA all 88 9 2

NZ 18-24 58 42

NZ generally 69 31

More non-voters in younger age group There are more non-voters aged 18–24 years than in the older age groups. Only 5.2 percent of people aged 65 or over did not vote in the last general election, compared with 42 percent of people aged 18–24.

Source: UMR, Statistics NZ

3. Group discussion: Why do people not

vote?

Main reasons you didn’t vote?

Source: UMR, Statistics NZ

PSA 18-39 PSA all NZ all

Can’t remember/unsure

8 7

Couldn’t be bothered 10 16 28 (includes forgot)

Didn’t enrol/can’t vote

16 12 12

Busy 10 11 2.4 (includes sick)

Forgot 4 5 Overseas/away 12 16 10Health issues 8 12 Arrived in NZ recently

19 12 15

Couldn’t get to booth 2 1 4.4

Young people say…

• “I don’t think my vote will make a difference”: All politicians are the same; my vote won’t change anything.

• “I’m in the dark”: I don’t understand the political system and I don’t know enough about the candidates.

• “It’s not on my wavelength”: Politics is nasty and boring; I’m just not interested.

• “Voting doesn’t matter to me or to anyone else”: There are no benefits in voting; I don’t feel I have a duty to vote.

Source: Electoral Commission

4. Other useful stuff

How did you party vote in 2011?

PSA 18-39 PSA all NZ all

National 27 22 47.3

Labour 44 54 27.5

Green 20 16 11

NZF 2 3 6.6

Maori Party 3 2 1.4

Conservatives 2 2 2.65

Other 1 1 3

How do you intend to cast your party vote in 2014?

PSA 18-39 PSA all

National 23 22

Labour 47 53

Green 22 17

NZF 3 4

Maori Party 2 1

Mana Party 0 1

Conservatives 1 1

Other 1 1

For a look at how the polls vary across ages, see: http://find.ipsos.co.nz/Fairfax-Ipsos/14.02/Poll14.02.15/index.html

PSA members’ election activity

Activity 2011(actually did)

2014 (willing to)

Attend stop work 16%

Attend workplace meeting 51.5%

Attend public meeting 20% 27.7%

Attend a CTU forum 2.3% 6%

Hand out leaflets at work 11% 22%

Share campaign materials online 8.7% 14.5%

Put up posters at work 13.7% 25.3%

Participate in a digital campaign 32.9%

None of the above 47% 20.6%

Social media use is BIG

Members aged 18-39 are much more active on social media •Facebook – 81% (cf 57% of all members)•YouTube – 44% (cf 25%)•Instagram – 14% (cf 6%)•Twitter – 10%(cf 4%)

We also know:•32% of younger members rely solely on their mobile (i.e., have no landline) compared to 19% of members overall•84% browse the internet/check their emails on their mobile compared to 57% of members overall

Conclusions

• Members are concerned about survival – pay, wages, cost of living

• Overall PSA members tend to be enrolled and to vote – but what about our friends and contacts?

• There is a lot of potential to mobilise our members – especially around a digital campaign, and especially younger members

• How can we help Get Out the Vote?