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Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Emerging Asia–Pacific
telecoms market: trends and
forecasts 2019–2024
Polytimos Kontos, Casey Cragg, Qingyi Liang and Stephen
Wilson
February 2020, based on data up to 2Q 2019
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
This report provides:
▪ a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs
for emerging Asia–Pacific, as a whole and for 6 key
countries
▪ an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast
assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and
for key countries
▪ an overview of operator strategies and country-specific
topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by
means of a cross-country comparison
▪ a summary of results, key implications and
recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market
experts from our topic-led research programmes and our
consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to
our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique
and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous
methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard
definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).
2
About this report
1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.2 IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.
REPORT COVERAGE
Geographical Key performance indicators
Regions modelled
▪ Emerging Asia–
Pacific (EMAP)
Countries modelled
individually
▪ China
▪ Indonesia
▪ Malaysia
▪ Philippines
▪ Thailand
▪ Vietnam
Connections Revenue
Mobile
▪ Handset, mobile
broadband,1 IoT2
▪ Prepaid, contract
▪ 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
▪ Smartphone,
non-smartphone
Fixed
▪ Voice, broadband,
IPTV, dial-up
▪ Narrowband voice,
VoBB
▪ DSL, FTTP/B, cable,
BFWA, 5G, other
Mobile
▪ Service,3 retail
▪ Prepaid, contract
▪ Handset, mobile
broadband,1 IoT2
▪ Handset voice,
messaging, data
Fixed
▪ Service,3 retail
▪ Voice, broadband,
IPTV, dial-up,
specialist business
services
▪ DSL, FTTP/B, cable,
BFWA, other
ARPU
Voice traffic Mobile
▪ SIMs, handset
▪ Prepaid, contract
▪ Handset voice, data
Fixed and mobile
▪ Outgoing minutes,
MoUOur forecasts are refined throughout the year. This report presents the results
at the time of publication and will continue to give useful background
information about key drivers. However, we recommend that you always use
the Analysys Mason DataHub to view the latest data associated with this report.
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
8. Executive summary and recommendations
9. Both mobile and fixed retail revenue will increase in emerging Asia–Pacific
over the forecast period
10. Pakistan, Cambodia and Indonesia are the only countries in which the
telecoms retail revenue will grow by a CAGR of more than 7% in the period
to 2024
11. Geographical coverage: the adoption of 4G/5G and NGA will grow
significantly in most countries
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
14. Market context: higher GDP per capita tends to lead to higher fixed
broadband household penetration
15. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
16. Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia–Pacific market
17. Market overview: both mobile and fixed service revenue will continue to
grow during the forecast period
18. Mobile: monthly data consumption per connection will more than triple
during 2019–2024; the contract share of mobile connections will increase
marginally
19. Mobile: penetration in the region will hit 100% in 2020 and reach 108% by
2024
20. Mobile: growing competition and strong regulatory pressure in several
countries will lead to a decrease in ARPU in the region
21. Mobile: operators are investing in 5G technology; the increasing number of
mobile subscribers will lead to growth in the mobile service revenue by
2024
22. Fixed: the NGA share of fixed broadband connections will grow over time
due to investments in FTTP/B networks
23. Fixed: broadband penetration will increase in all countries in EMAP, but the
increase in China will be marginal
24. Fixed: fixed broadband ASPU will decline as operators lower their prices to
increase fixed broadband adoption
25. Fixed: the fixed market in EMAP is increasingly competitive and operators
will focus on investing in NGA
26. Specialist business services: the demand for data connectivity and cloud
services will continue to drive other business services revenue growth
27. IoT: the automotive, smart buildings and smart cities sectors will have the
greatest potential for revenue growth
28. Pay TV: IPTV and DTH will drive pay-TV retail revenue growth
29. Individual country forecasts
30. China: total service revenue will continue to grow, but the market is
reaching saturation point
31. China: growth in the adoption of 5G will accelerate from 2020
32. China: the Chinese telecoms market is the most-advanced telecoms
market in EMAP
33. China: forecast changes
34. Indonesia: the number of mobile connections will be the same as that in
FY2017 by the end of the forecast period
35. Indonesia: the average mobile data traffic in Indonesia is expected to more
than triple over the forecast period
36. Indonesia: the mobile market is still recovering from the implementation of
the prepaid SIM card registration regulation
3
Contents [1]
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
37. Indonesia: forecast changes
38. Malaysia: mobile revenue growth will be marginal, but the number of FBB
connections will rise due to network investment and increased competition
39. Malaysia: the average mobile data usage will increase at a CAGR of 21%
and will be the second-highest in the region
40. Malaysia: the regulator’s MSAP policy had a strong affect on fixed
broadband revenue and led to the incumbent losing some market share
41. Malaysia: forecast changes
42. Philippines: the forthcoming entry of a third MNO and a challenging
regulatory environment will lead to a decline in mobile revenue
43. Philippines: the number of 4G connections will start to fall in 2023 due to
the take-up of 5G technology
44. Philippines: competition will intensify in both the fixed and mobile markets
as Converge ICT and Dito roll out their networks
45. Philippines: forecast changes
46. Thailand: total service revenue will remain flat; the increase in fixed
broadband revenue will be offset by the falling mobile revenue
47. Thailand: FTTP/B has been the most-widespread technology in the fixed
broadband market since 2018
48. Thailand: the intense FTTP roll-out and the ongoing increase in 4G
coverage will drive competition in both the fixed and mobile markets
49. Thailand: forecast changes
50. Vietnam: fixed revenue will increase thanks to strong FTTP/B take-up rates
51. Vietnam: the mobile data traffic per connection is the lowest in EMAP; the
high availability of FTTP/B limits the use of fast mobile data
52. Vietnam: liberalisation of the market and mobile number portability will
lead to an increase in competition
53. Vietnam: forecast changes
54. Methodology
55. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
56. Examples of forecast input drivers
57. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
58. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
59. About the authors and Analysys Mason
60. About the authors
61. About the authors
62. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
63. Research from Analysys Mason
64. Consulting from Analysys Mason
4
Contents [2]
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue,
emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country,
emerging Asia–Pacific, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed
broadband connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2018 and 20241
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia–
Pacific
Figure 5: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia–
Pacific, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in emerging Asia–
Pacific
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory
(2019–2024), by country, emerging Asia–Pacific
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia–
Pacific (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–
2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging
Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–
2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia–Pacific (million),
2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD per month),
2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging
Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (GB per
month), 2014–2024
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific
(million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion),
2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of
broadband connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, emerging Asia–
Pacific (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging
Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging
Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific,
2014–2024
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific,
2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, emerging
Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, emerging Asia–Pacific,
2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
5
List of figures [1]
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, China (CNY trillion),
2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, China,
2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, China (million), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, China, 2014–
2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, China (CNY
per month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, China (GB per month), 2014–
2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, China (million), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,
China, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Indonesia (IDR
trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Indonesia,
2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Indonesia, 2014–
2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Indonesia
(IDR thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Indonesia (GB per month),
2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Indonesia (million), 2014–
2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,
Indonesia, 2014–2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Malaysia (MYR
billion), 2014–2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Malaysia,
2014–2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Malaysia, 2014–
2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Malaysia
(MYR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Malaysia (GB per month), 2014–
2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Malaysia (million), 2014–
2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,
Malaysia, 2014–2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Philippines (PHP
billion), 2014–2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2014–2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Philippines,
2014–2024
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Philippines (million), 2014–2024
6
List of figures [2]
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Philippines,
2014–2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Philippines
(PHP per month), 2014–2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Philippines (GB per month),
2014–2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Philippines (million), 2014–
2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,
Philippines, 2014–2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Thailand (THB
billion), 2014–2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2014–2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Thailand,
2014–2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Thailand (million), 2014–2024
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Thailand, 2014–
2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Thailand
(THB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Thailand (GB per month), 2014–
2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Thailand (million), 2014–
2024
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,
Thailand, 2014–2024
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Vietnam (VND
trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2014–2024
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Vietnam,
2014–2024
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2014–2024
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Vietnam, 2014–
2024
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Vietnam
(VND thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Vietnam (GB per month), 2014–
2024
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Vietnam (million), 2014–
2024
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,
Vietnam, 2014–2024
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key
drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key
drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
7
List of figures [3]
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
The total telecoms service revenue in EMAP will exceed
USD340 billion by 2024.
EMAP remains one of the strongest regions in the world in terms
of telecoms revenue growth potential. The region comprises some
of the fastest growing economies in the world, and the mobile and
fixed service take-up in some of the countries is still far from
saturation point.
Mobile retail revenue (including that from handsets, broadband
and IoT) will increase at a CAGR of 1.8% during the forecast
period, and will exceed USD239 billion by 2024. Many markets
have now matured, and the rate of growth in the number of
subscribers has generally slowed down. Government regulations
and strong competition are driving prices down, although
increasing smartphone take-up and improved network quality
should ensure that mobile data traffic continues to increase at a
rapid rate, and that operators’ data revenue continues to grow.
Fixed retail revenue (including that from voice, broadband,
business services and pay TV) will continue to grow at a CAGR of
2.4% during the forecast period. The next-generation access
(NGA) share of fixed connections will increase substantially in
many countries in EMAP. Pay-TV revenue growth will be
particularly strong because improving internet coverage and
speed (both mobile and fixed) will drive a large increase in the
take-up of IPTV and OTT video subscriptions.
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total
service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Both mobile and fixed retail revenue will increase in emerging Asia–Pacific over the
forecast period
0
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Re
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(U
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Mobile handset Mobile broadband
Mobile IoT Fixed voice
Fixed broadband Specialist business services
Pay TV Service revenueSource: Analysys Mason
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2018–2024
Total retail revenue will grow most significantly in Pakistan and Cambodia, while the growth in Myanmar and Malaysia will be marginal.
Telecoms retail revenue growth will be the greatest in Pakistan, Cambodia and Indonesia, at a CAGR of above 7%. The Indonesian market
will remain strong, and will recover quickly from the implementation of the prepaid SIM card registration regulation. Robust 4G take-up will
drive mobile retail revenue growth in Pakistan, while the growth in telecoms retail revenue in Cambodia will be driven by the improving
competitive environment and the expansion of network coverage.
10
Pakistan, Cambodia and Indonesia are the only countries in which the telecoms
retail revenue will grow by a CAGR of more than 7% in the period to 2024
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Total telecoms retail revenue GDPSource: Analysys Mason
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
ContentsExecutive summary and recommendations
Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
Individual country forecasts
Methodology
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Casey Cragg (Research Analyst) is a member of the Regional Markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market
Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. Casey holds an MSci in Astrophysics from University College London. His dissertation was
an investigation of the evolution of the statistical distribution of galaxies in the universe.
About the authors
60
Polytimos Kontos (Research Analyst) is a member of our data research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market
Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Data research programmes. He holds an MSc in
Management from London Business School and an MEng in Civil Engineering from University of Patras.
Qingyi Liang (Research Analyst) is a member of the Data Team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European
Country Reports and Asia–Pacific programmes. Qingyi has a MSc in Biomedical Sciences, and a PhD in Epigenetics and Cancer Biology from
University College London.
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
About the authors
61
Stephen Wilson (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Fixed Broadband Services research programme. He leads Analysys
Mason’s annual FTTx coverage, capex and conversion forecasts, and other recent areas of focus include examining fixed broadband operators’
home Wi-Fi strategies. Stephen has more than 10 years of experience in the telecoms sector and is a graduate in Philosophy, Politics and
Economics from St Catherine's College, Oxford University.
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Consulting
We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms
industry:
▪ communications and digital service providers, vendors,
financial and strategic investors, private equity and
infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters
and service and content providers
Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges
facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.
We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges
and opportunities new technology brings.
Research
Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different
services accessed by consumers and enterprises.
We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and
technology delivering those services.
Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct
access to analysts.
Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio
62
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Research from Analysys Mason
63
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Consulting from Analysys Mason
64
Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
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FEBRUARY 2020