Post on 15-Oct-2020
transcript
Vahid AlavianWater and Hydropower AdvisorAfrica RegionThe World Bank
Energy, Development and Climate Change in Africa
Outline
• The energy landscape
• The challenges we see
• The climate variability and change factor
• Managing the climate risks
• The World Bank energy strategy
• Summary
Energy and growth
Human Development Index (HDI)
Energy Consumed per Capita
Best-Fit Trendline
En
erg
y/C
ap
ita
Energy inequalities contribute to regional inequalities
4
276.2
160.8146.2
127.2
72.453.3
42.8
15.9
North America
Eurasia Europe Middle East WORLD Central and South
America
Asia and Oceania
Africa
Per Capita Primary Energy Consumption (mBTU)
Source: Energy Information Administration 2006
Consumption in Africa is 4.5 times lower than world average and 18 times lower than that of North America
Power shortages are a brake on economic growth and competitiveness
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
North
Africa
West Africa East Africa Southern
Africa
Central
Africa
AFRICA
Pe
rce
nta
ge
po
ints
of
pe
r c
ap
ita
ec
on
om
ic g
row
th
Telecom Power Roads
Low availability at high prices
184
85
21 1
26
55
38
29
204
114
58
1
900
430
2108
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000C
am
ero
on
Nig
eria
Eth
iopia
Ke
nya
Ta
nza
nia
Ug
and
a
Bu
rkin
a F
aso
Gh
an
a
Se
ne
ga
l
Alg
eria
Eg
yp
t
Mo
rocco
Wo
rld A
ve
rag
e
Ele
c c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
kW
h/y
r)/C
ap
ita
500 kWh/capita/year minimum consumption
for reasonable quality of life
Energy use per person in Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35C
had
Cape V
erd
e
Madagascar
Uganda
Burk
ina F
aso
Senegal
Kenya
Rw
anda
Cam
ero
on
Nig
er
Benin
Côte
d'Ivoire
Nam
ibia
Ghana
Lesoth
o
South
Afr
ica
Mozam
biq
ue
Tanzania
Eth
iopia
Congo
Mala
wi
Nig
eria
Zam
bia
US
cen
ts
Power tariffs in other
developing countries:
lower bound
Power tariffs in other
developing countries:
upper bound
High prices, low consumption
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
SA
S
EA
P
EC
A
LA
C
SS
A
OE
CD
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Afr
ica
Asia
LA
C
Ch
ina
MN
A
EC
A
OE
CD
Average tariff
(US$ per kWh)
Power consumption
(kWh pc pa)
Source:
Poor reliability
–Lost sales revenues • 5-6% formal
sector
• 20% informal sector
–Most large firms run generators: $0.40/kwh0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
<1% 1-3% 3-5% 5-10% >10%
Load shedding as percentage demand
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of co
un
trie
s
Load shedding
Source:
Huge power investment backlog
• To remedy this energy situation Africa needs to build
7,000 MW of generation capacity per year
More than five million new power connections per year
An extensive transmission network
• The annual financing requirements are staggering
spending needs: US$41 bn/yr
financing gap: US$23 bn/yr
Coal is Africa’s largest single source of power, but will lose ground to hydro
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Actual Trade Expansion Scenario
Trade Stagnation Scenario
Hydro Oil and Gas Coal OtherSource:
How is the energy and development landscape affected by climate
variability and change?
• Poorest, the most vulnerable and least prepared are hit hardest – most of Africa
• Development gains so far is at risk
• Water and energy security at risk
• heavy reliance on burning wood and charcoal to meet basic energy needs means the continent continues to suffer intense deforestation.
Sources of Green House Gas Emissions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AFR OECD Developing Countries
Electricity & Heat Manufacturing & Construction TransportationOther Fuel Combustion Fugitive Emissions Industrial ProcessesWaste Agriculture Land-Use Change & Forestry
• Africa: Land-use change is the largest source of GHG emissions
• Africa accounts for only 4% of CO2 emission
• Power accounts for only 10% of Africa’s emissions, and (excluding RSA) <1% of global emissions
• Lack of Energy access and environmental degradation are linked
Energy generation, processing, and use contribute over 60% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions
What has already changed?
13
Less rainfall in the Sahel
More rainfall in East Africa
Africa has warmed on average 0.5 degree C over last century
Six warmest years on record have all occurred since 1988
Climate change impact is mostly through water
Natural legacy
• extreme variability
• 35-40% around the mean
Historical legacy
Kenya: Annual Rainfall Variation about the Average
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Impact on
hydropower
generation and
cooling water
• 60+ international rivers
Projected change in annual basin yield (%)
Change in Basin Yield (%) Climate Change Exposure Risk
Impact
on
water
supply
Impact on
water
Investments
A path forward
Improve Scale-up of regional generation and transmission capacity
Develop a new generation of transformative projects, including natural gas, wind and geothermal
Strengthen Regional Power Sector planning
Develop regional power pools including legal & regulatory frameworks
Support hydro projects with a focus on integrated water resources management
Regional power trade could save almost
US$3 billion annually as well as
70 million tons of CO2
Why think regional about power?
• Africa’s economic geography is a serious challenge
20+ countries with populations of <5 million
20+ countries with economies of <US$5 billion
60 international river basins
15 landlocked countries
• That means power development must be at a regional scale
Most countries too small to generate power efficiently
Handful of countries with major hydro resources
Upstream decisions compromise downstream availability
Regional power trade: a necessity
• Economies of scale in production and regional power trade would save Africa US$2bn/yr
• Exports: dominated by hydropower (DRC, Ethiopia and Guinea)
Earnings could amount to 2-6% of GDP
Huge investments needed to become exporters
• Imports: cover >50% of needs in 16 countries
Savings >US$ 0.03 per kWh or over 1% of GDP
IRR on inter-connections >100% pays back in <1 year
Source:
Power Export Potential
Power flows with trade expansion (TWh in 2015, mostly hydro)
East Africa
West Africa
Southern Africa
Central Africa
Source:
Existing Regional Network
Missing links
Hydropower has high strategic value and offers a “cleaner” development path
Hydropower:
• accounts for 88% of renewable energy
• is a mature technology
• has ancillary benefits, such as system stability, peaking capability
• can store energy
Multi-purpose Hydro:
• contributes to a minimum platform of infrastructure for water security
• can help mitigate extreme events (droughts and floods)
MITIGATION
ADAPTATION
World Bank and Hydropower
• Energy lending grew from US$260 million in 2003 to US$750 in 2007 and 2008.
• Energy lending in 2009 alone was US$1.2 billion.
• Hydropower lending 2009 contained 77 active projects for total investment of about US$ 3.5 billion (not including carbon funded).
• The portfolio is diverse: 28% storage, 48% run-of-river, 24% rehabilitation.
Sudan
Algeria
Libya
Mali
Chad
Niger
Iran
Egypt
Congo, DRC
Russia
Angola
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Ethiopia
Iraq
Nigeria
Ukraine
South Africa
France
Spain
Namibia
Tanzania
Mauritania
Zambia
Kenya
Italy
Somalia
Mozambique
Yemen
Botswana
Morocco
Congo
Madagascar
Kazakhstan
Syria
Cameroon
Germany
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Romania
Ghana
Poland
Guinea
Uganda
Central African Republic
Senegal
Burkina Faso
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
AustriaHungary
Cote d'Ivory
Tunisia
Benin
Greece
Serbia
Western Sahara
Eritrea
Malawi
Jordan
Liberia
Portugal
Georgia
Togo
Croatia
SlovakiaCzech Republic
Italy
Italy
United KingdomBelgium
Moldova
Sierra Leone
Belarus
Switzerland
Albania
Israel
Oman
Armenia
Lesotho
Slovenia
Burundi
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Macedonia
Rwanda
Kuwait
DjiboutiGuinea-Bissau
Qatar
Ireland
Swaziland
Cyprus
Montenegro
Lebanon
Equatorial Guinea
Greece
The Gambia
West Bank
Luxembourg
Equatorial Guinea
ComorosComoros
Andorra
Malta
Sao Tome & Principe
Bahrain
Gaza Strip
Jersey
St. Helena
Monaco
Gibraltar
Glorioso Is.
Juan De Nova I.
Vatican City
Fomi
Felou
Jebba
Karuma
Kainji
BumbunaZungeru
Taoussa
Bujagali
Corumana
Metolong
Gibe III
Inga IIIInga III
Adjarala Lom Pangar
Mount Coffee
Ruhudji Hydro
Inga I and II
Lower Kafue Gorge
JMP (Mendaya as illustration)
Legend
AFR Hydropower Project Pipeline
Type
Proactive Engagement
Under Consideration
WPA Commitment
The World Bank is focusing on clean energy and increased access in its lending portfolio
Examples:
• Sierra Leone: Bumbuna Hydro-electric Project
• Africa Rift Valley: Geothermal Facility
• Kenya: Energy Sector Recovery Project
• South Africa: Renewable Energy Market Transformation
• Uganda: Bujagali Hydropower Project
• Cameroon: Lom Pangar Hydropower Project
• Democratic Republic of Congo: Inga 1 and 2 Rehabilitation
Summary
• Power shortages are a brake on economic growth and competitiveness. Climate change can exacerbate this.
• Infrastructure investment needs are massive and Africa faces a huge power sector financing gap. Climate issues can add to this cost.
• Power trade would help to reduce costs and facilitate a shift to cleaner energy. Reduction in carbon emission can be achieved through regional power trade.
• Scaling up hydro development for both urban and rural electrification can significantly reduce biomass fuel use and deforestation. Pricing challenge remains.
• Hydropower can play the mitigation and adaption roles in addressing climate change impacts.
Thank you!