Analysis Frameworks for Sustainability:

Linking Energy and the Environment

Rudolf B. HusarDirector, Center for Air Pollution and Trends Analysis (CAPITA) 

Professor, Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering  

EECE Seminar, Friday, November 2, 2007, 11:00am,

Lopata 101, Washington University

Integrative Science and Engineering for‘Grand Challenges’

The problems of Energy and Environment (EE) are Grand Challenges

Solutions require engineering, biological, socio-economic and other sciences

A rigorous and practical integrated framework for EE is not available

This is an exploration of frameworks for integrated Energy Environmental Analysis

Interested in the EE integration challenge? Join us on the wiki!

Sustainable Development (SD)

A process of reconciling society’s developmental needs with the environmental limits over the long term. But, What should be developed, what should be sustained?

SD as an uncertain and adaptive process, “in which society's discovery of where it wants to go is intertwined with how it might try to get there”.

During the SD ‘journey’ toward sustainability, the pathways have to be ‘navigated’ adaptively

Continuing the metaphors, science is the compass, giving the directions and laws-regulations are the gyroscope for staying on course

.

National Academy, 1999

Life and non-life on Earth form a combined system (Gaia Theory)

Carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium are in constant circulation between the earth’s major environmental compartments

Earth’s compartments remain in balance as long as the rate of flow of matter and energy in and out of the compartments is unchanged.

Changes in the environmental compartments will occur if the circulation (in and out flow) of the substances is perturbed.

Atmospheric CO2 has been increasing because the rate of input is larger than the rate of output from the atmosphere.

Major Biogeochemical Processes Visualized by Aerosols

Dust storms

Volcanoes Anthropogenic pollution

Fires

Anthropogenic pollution perturbs the natural processes and material flows

Analysis Frameworks

Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science; Regulatory)

Assessment

Controls

Monitoring

Causality Loop(Combined Social-Physical-Biological System)

Biogeochemical Cycling Loop(Engineering; Biology; Conservation Laws)

Analysis Framework I: Sensory-Motor Loop

AssessmentCompare to Goals, Plan Reductions

Track Progress

Controls (Actions)

Monitoring(Sensing)

Set Goals

Assessment turns data into knowledge for decision making & actions through analysis (science & eng.)

Monitoring collects multi-sensory data from surface and satellite platforms and

Human activities exert pressures, e.g burning fossil fuels, that alter the state of environment.

The impaired environmental state, elicits responses, such as regulations in a feedback loop

All living organisms use this type of sensory-motor feedback to maintain their existence.

Monitoring, Assessment, Control are the necessary steps for sustainable development.

Monitoring:New Global Measurements - Satellites

ERBS

Terra

Aqua

Grace

IceSat

QuikScatSage

SeaWinds

TRMM

Toms-EP

UARS Jason

Landsat 7

SORCE

SeaWiFS

ACRIMSAT

TOPEX/Poseidon

EO-1

Eskes at al, 2006

Source Identification:- Man-made, Soil, Biomass, Lightning- Seasonal pattern of each

Trend 1995-2005:

- Reductions in N. America & Europe

- Increase over East Asia (China)

Monitoring Global Change:

Tropospheric NO2 Measurements from Satellites:

Analysis of OMI satellite NO2 observations:NO2 Weekly Cycle

Weekend/weekday NO2 patterns associated with reduced Sunday emissions

See screencast (1 minute)

The revolutions in sensing and data distribution now allow the monitoring and analysis of the chemical weather and climate over the Earth.

Setting Goals:

Air Quality Goal:

Attaining Natural Condition by 2064

Controls: Sustainability Transition

Analysis Framework II: Materials & Energy Flow Loop

Biogeochemical Cycles - Carbon

Nitrogen Cycle

Consequences of Ecosystem Changes

How and what to Control?? Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop

Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment

The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loop

It is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippled

Each component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environment

The causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis

Analysis Framework III – Causality LoopEconomic Development with Due Care of the

Environment

Health-Welfare

Energy-Environment

Socio-Economic

Causality: Linear System Model

Trend of Indicators

SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu

1960s

1980s

1990s

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

GDP(Mill$)/PersonEnergy(Bbtu)/GDP(Mill$)SOx/Energy(Bbtu)PopulationSOX Emiss

Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions

Ek = cjk EMj = bij cjk GEi = ai bij cjk P

Industr. Energy

Transp. Energy

ResCom.Engy

Coal

Oil

GasElectric Energy

SOx

NOx

HC

PM

Goods &Energy,(GE) i Fuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k

Ind. Chemicals

Industr. Goods

Pop., P

Metals

Mercury

ai

Consump./Person

bij

Fuels/Energy

cjk

Emission/Fuel-

j ji i i j

Consumption of Goods and Energy: GE = ai P

Fuels and Materials Flow: FM = ai bij P

Emission of Pollutants: EM = ai bij cjk P

Industrial Prod.

Transportation

ResComercial

EconMeasure(EM)

Coal Production and S Content

Coal Sulfur Flow in 1980 and 1998

• In 1980, a major flow of sulfur in coal originated in Illinois and was transported to Florida

Arrows indicate the flow of coal from the mines to the consumer

• By 1990, the transport of high sulfur coal from the Midwest has bee replaced by low sulfur western coal

Pollutant Transfer by Fuels and Minerals:Spatial Transfer Matrices

Carbon Emission Drivers for Transportation1960-2003

Carbon Emission Trends - Passenger Transportation 1960-2003

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Perc

en

t C

han

ge

Env 449 Class project, SP 2007

• The C emission in transportation sector increased 200% since 1960

• The upward drivers were Population, Vehicle/Person and Passenger miles

• The slight improvement resulted from the better fuel energy efficiency/vehicle

Carbon Emission Drivers for US Housing

• The carbon emissions in the housing sector increased 23% since ‘Kyoto’ (1990-2005)

• The upward drivers were Population, Housing Units/person and Surface Area/person.

• The key improvement (13%) resulted from the better energy efficiency/sqft

Env 449 Class project, SP 2007

Summary

• Frameworks for Energy-Environment Integration:– Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science)

– Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance)

– Causality Loop (Socio-economic, Physical, Heatlh/Welfare Sciences)

• Opportunities:– There is a sensing revolution for monitoring energy-environmental systems

– The web facilitates accessing and metabolizing the new observations

– There is a more collaborative culture for faster, adoptive learning

• Key Challenges:– Augmenting reductionist science with integrative systems science

– Enhancing information exchange and synergy between disciplines

– Inherent structural and dynamic complexity of environmental systems