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transcript
© World Energy Council 2013
Energy in transition -
navigating through
uncertainty .
Dr Christoph Frei
Secretary General & CEO
World Energy Council .
Wellington
07 March 2014
twitter:
@chwfrei
© World Energy Council 2013
World Energy Council (WEC) ► the world energy leaders’ network
► promoting an affordable, stable, and environmentally sustainable energy system for all since 1923
► truly global – 90+ country member committees
► inclusive and impartial – OECD & non-OECD – 3000+ member organisations from governments, industry, academia, & NGOs
► Informs global, regional, national strategies – authoritative studies – high-level network & events
► World Energy Congress – Daegu, South Korea – 13–17 October 2013
38%
business
25%
experts
7%
government
30%
other
© World Energy Council 2013
Our studies
► World Energy Scenarios – explorative assessments
providing a realistic vision of the future energy landscape
► World Energy Resources – surveys the global
availability and production of all major energy sources,
with national and regional assessments
► World Energy Trilemma – assesses how well countries
are addressing the energy trilemma
► World Energy Issues Monitor – assesses the issues on
top of the global and regional energy agenda
► World Energy Perspectives – specific issues and
technologies
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
World, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels smart grids
electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
World, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels smart grids
electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
World, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels smart grids
electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
World, 2013 time tracking
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels smart grids
electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
World, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital marketscommodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycleinnovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels smart grids
electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
geographical tracking:
Asia
Africa
Europe
LatAm
MENA
NAm
OECD
NonOECD
G20
energy efficiency
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
World, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital marketscommodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycleinnovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels smart grids
electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
geographical tracking:
AsiaAfrica
Europe
LatAmMENA
NAm
OECD
NonOECD
G20
renewable energies
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
World, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital marketscommodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycleinnovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels smart grids
electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
geographical tracking:
Asia
Africa
Europe
LatAm
MENA
NAm
OECD
NonOECDG20
ccs
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
Africa, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers regional interconnection
business cycle
innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities energy efficiency
ccs renewable energies
biofuels
smart grids electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
Asia, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle
innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies biofuels
smart grids
electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
Europe, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia EU Cohesion Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle
innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players sustainable cities
energy efficiency ccs renewable energies
biofuels
smart grids electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
MENA, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle
innovative regulation energy subsidies
new market players sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies biofuels smart grids
electric vehicles electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
LatAm, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents global recession capital markets commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty
energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle
innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels smart grids
electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
NAm, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices energy prices
currency uncertainty energy water nexus
talent
energy poverty energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle
innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels smart grids
electric vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
New Zealand, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty energy water nexus
talent energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle
innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels
smart grids electric vehicles electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
New Zealand, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty energy water nexus
talent energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle
innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels
smart grids electric vehicles electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen economy
© World Energy Council 2013
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
un
ce
rta
inty
weak
signals
World Energy Issues Monitor
New Zealand, 2013
climate framework
large scale accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity prices
energy prices
currency uncertainty energy water nexus
talent energy poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers
regional interconnection
business cycle
innovative regulation
energy subsidies
new market players
sustainable cities
energy efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels
smart grids
electric storage
nuclear
large scale hydro
hydrogen economy
unconventionals
electric vehicles
© World Energy Council 2013 © World Energy Council 2013
World Energy Perspectives:
Energy Efficiency Policies
© World Energy Council 2013
Energy Efficiency: Moderate progress worldwide… Source: World Energy Perspectives: Energy Efficiency Policies
Improvements in primary energy intensity, 1990 to 2011
9.6 Gt CO2 globally
© World Energy Council 2013
Big regional disparities… Source: World Energy Perspectives: Energy Efficiency Policies
Change in energy intensity by region
© World Energy Council 2013
Challenges in transformation & transport… Source: World Energy Perspectives: Energy Efficiency Policies
Industrial sectors shares in primary energy intensity (2011)
© World Energy Council 2013
► 2010-2013
Project Partner:
Paul Scherrer Institute
© World Energy Council 2013 25
Scenario Building Process
© World Energy Council 2013 26
Key Clusters
1. Role of Government
2. Availability of Funds
3. Mitigation of CO2
4. Equality
5. Global Economics
6. Energy Prices
7. Consumer/citizen
acceptance
8. Energy Efficiency
9. Technology
developments
10. Security of supply
11. China and India
12. Energy Poverty
13. Energy Sources
14. Competition for
resources
15. Skills shortages
© World Energy Council 2013 27
• Evolutions of key scenario drivers are expressed in a coherent storyline of future economic
and social developments
• Some drivers are interdependent, e.g. energy intensity
• Drivers must be translated into quantified inputs for the energy system models
Key scenario drivers
© World Energy Council 2013
WEC Scenarios
Deriving the scenario stories
2
8
Two Scenarios stories, exploratory, different and equally
probable rather than good and bad
Jazz: Market & trade based,
consumer driven,
decentralized decision
making, focussed on
access and affordability.
achieving growth through
low cost energy.
Governments facilitate
GHG actions.
Symphony: Government led,
“orchestrated”, voter driven,
focussed on environmental
goals and energy security,
national and regional
measures to increase share
of renewables in energy
mix. Binding international
agreement on GHG
emissions.
© World Energy Council 2013
Brief outline of the two scenario stories
Jazz Symphony
Price-conscious consumers Environmentally-minded voters
Competitive markets pick technologies Governments pick technology winners
Higher GDP due to efficient market
practices.
Lower GDP due to non-optimal economic
policies
Increased exports due to free-trade
strategies
Reduced exports/imports due to
nationalistic strategies
Main players are multi-national
companies, banks, venture capitalists
Main players are private- and public sector
companies, local governments, NGOs
Carbon market grows more slowly from
bottom up, based on regional, national and
local initiatives.
Carbon market is top down based on an
international agreement, with
commitments and allocations.
© World Energy Council 2013 30
Jazz Symphony
GDP growth Higher (3.54% pa CAGR,
PPP)
Lower (3.06% pa CAGR,
PPP)
Population Lower (2050 = 8.7 billion) Higher (2050 = 9.3 billion)
Efficiency/
Intensity
Increasing (-2.29% pa
(primary, PPP))
Increasing more strongly (-
2.44% pa (primary, PPP))
Climate policy Limited Prices (2050): 23-45
USD/tCO2
Stronger Prices (2050): 75-80
USD/tCO2
Resources Better access to
unconventionals
More expensive
unconventionals
Technology
support
Limited; energy choice based
on free markets
support for nuclear, large
hydro, CCS and renewables
Technology
innovation
Further development of CCGT
decentralized power (SPV)
Focused R&D programs (esp.
CC(U)S, solar PV)
Storyline and quantification assumptions
© World Energy Council 2013 3
1
Highlighted results
2010 Jazz, 2050 Symphony, 2050
Final demand 373 EJ +69% +31%
Fossil fuels * 80% 77% 59%
Renewables * 15% 19% 29%
CO2 emissions
[Gt CO2/yr]
30.5 44.1 19.1
Solar ** 0.2% 6% 16%
Wind ** 2% 8% 8%
Nuclear ** 13% 6% 15%
Hydro ** 7% 11% 16%
* Shares in total primary energy supply
** Shares in electricity production
© World Energy Council 2013
Renewable electricity production
Jazz Symphony
Renewables undergo rapid
development, accounting for almost
50% of total electricity generation in
2050 (cf. 20% in 2010)
Hydro and wind electricity are
competitive. Renewables account for
roughly 30% of total electricity
generation by 2050.
© World Energy Council 2013
Global total primary energy supply
Jazz Symphony
Upstream liberalized;
technology development,
supply surge/more producers
Coal remains dominant in some regions
Tighter supply (lower E&P)
Higher infrastructure costs
Energy security drives reduced fossil use
oil: +/- 15%
natural gas: +100%/+50%
coal: +/- 40%
16 Gtoe
10.4 Gtoe
26% 25% 13%
fossil fuels: +55%/- 5%
© World Energy Council 2013
Electricity production and capacity
Jazz Symphony
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony2050
TW
h/y
Electricity Production
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass (with CCS)
Biomass
Hydro
Hydrogen
Nuclear
Gas
Gas (with CCS)
Oil
Coal
Coal (with CCS)0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony2050
GW
Electricity Capacity
coal: expected to remain dominant
gas: share increases (esp. N. America),
nuclear: mainly non-OECD
coal: share drops, CCS increasingly required
nuclear: increasing; led by governments
More stable & quicker transition to
renewables
© World Energy Council 2013
Total fuel consumption by fuel type
JAZZ:
• economic growth leads
to higher consumption
• improved access to
energy
SYMPHONY:
• lower consumption,
high impact of energy
saving (and lower
growth)
• switching away from
fossil fuels (peak in
2030)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony2050
EJ/y
Solar
Bio, Alc
Hydrogen
Electricity
Gas
Oil Type
Coal
Heat
Bio noncomm.
© World Energy Council 2013
Global investment in Electricity Generation
Cumulative 2010-2050 in GW JAZZ:
Approximately US$19.3
trillion (US$2010)
SYMPHONY:
Approximately US$25.7
trillion (US$2010)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
JAZZ SYMPHONY
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass (with CCS)
Biomass
Hydropower
Hydrogen
Nuclear
Gas
Gas (with CCS)
Oil
Coal
Coal (with CCS)
Symphony cumul. undiscounted investment:
Jazz cumul. undiscounted investment:
25.7
19.3
trillion US$2010
trillion US$2010
.
© World Energy Council 2013
Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage
JAZZ:
• Possibly ready at
commercial scale 2035
• CC(U)S not adopted
initially due to high
costs/low carbon price
• Commercial use in
enhanced oil recovery
• Wider adoption post
2040
SYMPHONY:
• Entry of CC(U)S earlier
due to govt. intervention;
govt. promotion
• CC(U)S increasingly
required on coal new
build
• CC(U)S in enhanced oil
recovery
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony2050
GtC
O2/y
CENTASIA
EASTASIA
EUROPE
LAC
MENA
NAM
PACIASIA
SSAFRICA
© World Energy Council 2013
The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450 ppm target
without enormous economic costs
Resulting CO₂ emissions
© World Energy Council 2013
CO₂ emissions by region JAZZ:
• Energy choice based on
free markets
• limited regulations
supporting low-carbon
energy (but regional
diversity)
• consequently: carbon
pricing only after significant
income growth
SYMPHONY:
• Priority to environmental
sustainability
• CO2 reduction obligations,
carbon taxes, CC(U)S
mandates, renewable
energy subsidies
• consequently: global carbon
price emerges
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony2050
GtC
O₂/
y
CENTASIAEASTASIAEUROPE
LAC
MENA
© World Energy Council 2013
JAZZ:
• upstream liberalized;
• technology
development
• supply surge/more
producers
• coal remains dominant
in some regions
SYMPHONY:
• tighter supply (lower
E&P)
• higher infrastructure
costs
• energy security drives
reduced fossil use
Energy mix in 2050
© World Energy Council 2013
JAZZ:
• 310 million without
access in 2050
SYMPHONY:
• 530 million without
access in 2050
Access to electricity in 2050
© World Energy Council 2013 42
Energy Security
The effective management of primary energy supply
from domestic and external sources, the reliability
of energy infrastructure, and the ability of energy
providers to meet current and future demand.
Environmental Sustainability
Encompasses the achievement of supply
and demand side energy efficiencies and the
development of energy supply from renewable
and other low-carbon sources.
Energy Equity
Accessibility and affordability of energy supply
across the population.
Balancing the
‘Energy Trilemma’
© World Energy Council 2013 43
Energy Sustainability Index structure
Country
performance
100%
1. Energy
performance
75%
1.1 Energy
Security
25%
1/6
Each1.1.1 Ratio of total energy production to consumption
1.1.2 Diversity of electricity generation
1.1.3 Distribution losses as a percentage of generation
1.1.4 Five year CAGR of the ratio of TPEC to GDP
1.1.5 Days of oil and oil product stocks
1.1.6a For importers – Net fuel imports as a percentage of GDP
1.1.6b For exporters – Fuel exports as a percentage of GDP
1.2 Energy
equity
25%
1/2
Each
1.2.1 Affordability of retail gasoline
1.2.2 Affordability and quality of electricity relative to access
1.3 Environmental
sustainability
25%
1/2
Each
1/
Each1.3.1 Total primary energy intensity
1.3.2 CO2 intensity
1.3.3 Effect of air and water pollution
1.3.4 CO2 grams/kWh from electricity generation
2. Contextual
performance
25%
2.1 Political
strength
8.3%
1/4
Each2.1.1 Political stability
2.1.2 Regulatory quality
2.1.3 Effectiveness of government
2.2 Societal
strength
8.3%
1/3
Each2.2.1 Control of corruption
2.2.2 Rule of law
2.2.3 Quality of education
2.3.4 Quality of health
2.3 Economic
strength
8.3%
1/3
Each2.3.1 Cost of living expenditure
2.3.2 Macroeconomic stability
2.3.3 Availability of credit to the private sector
Total score Indicator type Dimension Indicators
Enhancedmethodology for 2013
© World Energy Council 2013 44
Conclusions
Countries with AAB balance score Countries with AA A balance score
2013 Rank Country
1 Switzerland
2 Denmark
3 Sweden
4 Austria
5 United Kingdom
6 Canada
7 Norway
8 New Zealand
9 Spain
10 France
© World Energy Council 2013 45
1 Switzerland
2 Denmark
3 Sweden
4 Austria
5 United Kingdom
6 Canada
7 Norway
8 New Zealand
9 Spain
10 France
5 Top 5
Energy security
1 Canada
2 Russia
3 Denmark
4 Bolivia
5 Colombia
Top 5
1 Switzerland
2 Costa Rica
3 Albania
4 Colombia
5 Uruguay
Top 5
Energy equity
1 United States
2 Canada
3 Australia
4 Luxembourg
5 France
Top Energy
sustainability
index Energy
security
Energy
equity
Environmental
Sustainability AAA score
AAB score
© World Energy Council 2013 46
New Zealand on Rank 8
2011 2012 2013 Trend Score
Energy security 20 19 15 h A
Energy equity 15 18 26 i A
Environmental sustainability 40 36 37 i B
Overall rank and score 9 7 8 i AAB
© World Energy Council 2013 47
New path to development
© World Energy Council 2013 48
Environmental sustainability results identify
out- and underperformers
Algeria
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belgium
Benin
Bolivia
Botswanta
Brazil
Bulgaria
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Chad
Chile
China
Colombia
Côte d’Ivoire
Cyprus
Czech Rep.
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
Egypt
Estonia
EthiopiaFinland
France
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Guatemala
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Iran
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Japan
Jordan
Kenya
Korea
Kuwait
Latvia
Lebanon
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Macedonia
Malawi
Malaysia
Malta
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mexico
Moldova
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Nepal
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Russia
Senegal
SerbiaEstonia
Singapore
Slovenia
South Africa
Spain
Sri Lanka
Swaziland
Sweden
Taiwan
Tanzania
Thailand
Tunisia
Turkey
UAE
UK
USA
Venezuela
Vietnam
Yemen
Zambia
En
viro
nm
en
talsu
sta
ina
bili
ty
Total primary energy consumption / GDP (PPP)Low High
Low
HighOutperformers: countries that
perform significantly better than
expected on environmental
sustainability given their level of
energy consumption
Underperformers: countries
that perform significantly worse
than expected on environmental
sustainability given their level of
energy consumption
“Column
of Expectation”
WEC member countries
non-WEC member countries
© World Energy Council 2013 49
The World Energy
Council’s World
Energy Trilemma2012–2013 research
programme captured
the insights of morethan 100 global
energy leaders and
led to the identification
of a 10-point agenda
to address three
broad policy areas.
10-POINT
AGENDA
FOR
CHANGE
Connect energy
trilemma to the broader
national agenda1
Minimise policy
and regulatory risk
and ensure optimal
risk allocation
Drive (green) trade
liberalisation
Increase
engagement with the
financial community
Provide leadership
to build consensus –
nationally and
globally
Improve policy-
maker and
industry dialogue
Market-based
approaches to
carbon pricing to
drive investments5
Design transparent,
flexible and
dynamic pricing
frameworks6
7
8
4
Meet the need for more
research, development
and demonstration (RD&D)9
Encourage joint
pre-commercial industry
initiatives, including early
large-scale demonstration
and deployment
10
2
3
© World Energy Council 2013
22nd World Energy Congress, 2013, Daegu “The world’s premier energy gathering”
Summing it all up
© World Energy Council 2013
► 7 Myths • M1: Global energy demand will flatten out. Reality: Energy
demand will double by 2050
• M2: Peak Oil. Reality: No shortage for fossil fuels in sight.
• M3: Demand growth will be fully met by new clean energy sources. Reality: The contribution of fossil fuels to the global energy demand is still growing in absolute terms.
• M4: We can reduce global GHG emission by 50% by 2050. Reality: Even in the best case we will see a near doubling of GHG emissions compared to 1990 levels.
• M5: Current business models and markets are delivering. Reality: Current designs are unable to cope with the increasing renewable shares, decentralised systems, or growing information architecture.
• M6: Current programmes will deliver universal energy access by 2030. Reality: On current paths, 320..530 million people will still be without electricity in 2050.
• M7: On a global scale capital is cheap and abundant. Reality: Capital is extremely sensitive to perceived political and regulatory risks. Lack of agreement between investors and governments on nature, price, and value of risks related to energy infrastructure makes capital flow elsewhere.
22nd World Energy Congress, 2013, Daegu “The world’s premier energy gathering”
© World Energy Council 2013
► 6 Fixes for the Future • F1: We are looking in the wrong place: The focus must
shift from the supply mix to demand efficiency.
• F2: In order to attract the needed investment national policy and regulatory frameworks have to be balanced: the "Energy Trilemma" provides a solid policy framework.
• F3: We need significant investments and focus in RD&D: Electricity storage and CC(U)S are potential game changers for energy systems.
• F4: The energy map is changing: Institutions need to change to reflect these changes or risk becoming obsolete.
• F5: Universal access to energy is a key development enabler: Policy / institutional frameworks & funds need to de-risk entrepreneurial approaches.
• F6: New risks (energy-water nexus, extreme weather events, social activism, or cyber attacks) expose our energy infrastructure to potential disasters: We need to urgently re-think, redefine, and adapt the resilience for energy infrastructure.
22nd World Energy Congress, 2013, Daegu “The world’s premier energy gathering”
© World Energy Council 2013 © World Energy Council 2013
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