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Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
Energy Information Administration Retail Diesel Price Survey
Michael Griffey
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Diesel PricesWeekly U.S. Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices Average All Types
3/13/2006 - 9/13/2008
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
3.00
3.10
3.20
3.30
3.40
3.50
3.60
3.70
3.80
3.90
4.00
4.10
4.20
4.30
4.40
4.50
4.60
4.70
4.80
4.90
5.00
5.10
3/1
3/2
006
4/1
3/2
006
5/1
3/2
006
6/1
3/2
006
7/1
3/2
006
8/1
3/2
006
9/1
3/2
006
10/1
3/2
006
11/1
3/2
006
12/1
3/2
006
1/1
3/2
007
2/1
3/2
007
3/1
3/2
007
4/1
3/2
007
5/1
3/2
007
6/1
3/2
007
7/1
3/2
007
8/1
3/2
007
9/1
3/2
007
10/1
3/2
007
11/1
3/2
007
12/1
3/2
007
1/1
3/2
008
2/1
3/2
008
3/1
3/2
008
4/1
3/2
008
5/1
3/2
008
6/1
3/2
008
7/1
3/2
008
8/1
3/2
008
9/1
3/2
008
Do
llars
per
Gallo
n
$4.76
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Energy Information Administration
• The statistical agency of DOE; created by Congress in 1977.
• EIA’s Mission – provide policy independent data, forecasts, and analyses
• By law, EIA’s products are independent of Administration policy. EIA neither formulates nor advocates any policy conclusions.
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Diesel Price Survey History
• Interstate Commerce Commission survey until 1994
• ICC – a volunteer survey of 18 outlets, U.S. level only
• EIA began publishing May 21, 1994
• EIA – a mandatory statistical survey of 250 outlets, U.S. and 5 regions
• Beginning May 26, 1997, sample expanded to 350 outlets, U.S., 8 regions, and California
• Began publishing LSD and ULSD prices 2/5/2007
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Insuring Accuracy
• Sample Design
• Sampling Frame
• Sample Selection
• Editing
• Validation
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Sample Design Considerations
• Accuracy desired
• Sample size requirements
• Geographic spread and representation
• Representation by type of outlets
• Estimation procedures including weighting
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Sample Design – Accuracy Desired
Target Standard Errors (in cents)
Geographic Area Diesel Fuel Target Error
U.S. 1.0
PADD I – East Coast 1.0
PADD IA – New England 1.5
PADD IB – Central Atlantic 1.5
PADD IC – Lower Atlantic 1.5
PADD II – Midwest 1.0
PADD III – Gulf Coast 1.0
PADD IV – Rocky Mountain 1.5
PADD V – West Coast 1.5
CA 1.5
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Survey Design - Sample Sizes by Geographic Region
Diesel Fuel Allocations by Geographic Region
PADD 1A 1B 1C 2 3 4 CA 5 -CA TOTAL
Outlets 28 34 64 72 36 56 29 31 350
Company-State Units 22 27 53 65 35 39 18 23 282
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Sample Frame
• Multi-stage sampling frame
• First stage – annual sales by State for approx 30,000 companies
• Second stage – annual retail-outlet diesel fuels sales by State for 1,639 companies on monthly surveys
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Sample Selection
• Two step selection process
• First step – companies and States (282 csu’s)
• Probability Proportionate to size (PPS) selection within cell
• Second step – 350 outlets
• Proportioned by type of outlet and zip code
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Survey Design – Estimation
• Published prices are weighted averages
• Publication cell estimates
• PADD estimates
• US estimates
• LSD and ULSD estimates
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
U.S. Total vs PADD III vs PADD V
Weekly U.S. Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices Average All Types (U.S. vs PADD III vs PADD V)
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
3/6
/06
4/6
/06
5/6
/06
6/6
/06
7/6
/06
8/6
/06
9/6
/06
10/6
/06
11/6
/06
12/6
/06
1/6
/07
2/6
/07
3/6
/07
4/6
/07
5/6
/07
6/6
/07
7/6
/07
8/6
/07
9/6
/07
10/6
/07
11/6
/07
12/6
/07
1/6
/08
2/6
/08
3/6
/08
4/6
/08
5/6
/08
6/6
/08
7/6
/08
8/6
/08
9/6
/08
Do
lla
rs p
er
Ga
llo
n
US TOTAL
PADD III
PADD V
$2.96
$2.81
$2.75
$4.85$4.69
$4.66
$4.06
$4.02$4.01
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Collection
• When --- Monday
• Where --- Calling center
• How --- CATI, fax, email, website, 800 call-in line
• What -- Retail on-highway diesel prices by fuel type, including taxes, as of 8:00 A.M. Monday
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Processing
• Edits, use of model
• Price Verification
• Mid day review
• Call Backs
• Final Processing
• Performance Statistics
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Validation
• Use of model estimates
• Credit transaction data
• Coefficients of Variation (cv’s)
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
EIA vs Credit TransactionsDifference in Price: EIA vs Credit Transactions
-$0.08
-$0.06
-$0.04
-$0.02
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
1/1
/20
01
4/1
/20
01
7/1
/20
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10
/1/2
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1/1
/20
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4/1
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7/1
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02
10
/1/2
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2
1/1
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4/1
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7/1
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10
/1/2
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1/1
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4/1
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7/1
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/1/2
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1/1
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4/1
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7/1
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/1/2
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1/1
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4/1
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7/1
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1/1
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4/1
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7/1
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/1/2
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1/1
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4/1
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7/1
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08
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Coefficient of Variation
• A measure of precision reflecting the error due to sampling
• Can be used to construct a confidence interval for the population mean
• Price of $4.12, CV of 0.004 (.4%), 95% confidence level $4.09 to $4.15
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Dissemination
• When - By 5:00 P.M. Monday
• What - Diesel prices by fuel type and region and coefficients of variation
• How– Web Weekly Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices – Gasoline and Diesel Update– Wireless – 3,152 subscribers– Email – 33,623 subscribers– Hotline Number– Other EIA Publications
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
How to Prevent Price Manipulation
• Size of survey
• Edits, outlier identification, price verification
• Mandatory reporting by a public law
• Confidentiality - CIPSEA Protection
• Restricted access in calling center
• Secure data transmission
• Designated computer in a locked office
Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium
Unanswered Questions
• Are there any planned changes, i.e. will it ever be posted daily?
• Will the DOE ever use a 3rd party to supply the data to the DOE on a more frequent basis?
• Anything new in the near future