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Energy Systems Analysis
ESA-8
Energy and Emissions
Scenarios
Keywan Riahi
riahi@iiasa.ac.at
Energy Systems Analysis
Scenarios:• Provide a framework for decision
making
• Help understand the possible impact of alternative courses of action
• Facilitate the interpretation of possible future states (back-casting)
• Include elements that cannot be formally modeled
• Aimed at challenging prevailing mind sets
Energy Systems Analysis
Energy and Emissions Scenarios
• Shell Scenario Group – Corporate Planning
• IIASA – 1981, IIASA-WEC, IPCC SRES, SSPs
• IPCC – 1990, IS92, SRES, TAR, AR4, AR5
• WEC – EFTW, IIASA-WEC, EFTWII
• GEA – Global Energy Assessment
• IEA – World Energy Outlook
• UN – World Energy Assessment
• US Energy Information Agency
• EU – World ETC Policy Outlook
• Greenpeace – Energy Revolution
• World Ecosystems Assessment
Energy Systems Analysis
Energy and Emissions Scenarios
• Shell Scenario Group – Corporate Planning
• IIASA – 1981, IIASA-WEC, IPCC SRES, SSPs
• IPCC – 1990, IS92, SRES, TAR, AR4, AR5
• WEC – EFTW, IIASA-WEC, EFTWII
• GEA – Global Energy Assessment
• IEA – World Energy Outlook
• UN – World Energy Assessment
• US Energy Information Agency
• EU – World ETC Policy Outlook
• Greenpeace – Energy Revolution
• World Ecosystems Assessment
Energy Systems Analysis
Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary EnergyRange Across Emissions ScenariosRange Across Emissions Scenarios
Median
95%
5%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Glo
bal P
rim
ary
Energ
y (
index,1
990=1)
75%
25%
NO
N-C
ON
TR
OL
CO
NT
RO
L
Nakicenovic Nakicenovic et al.et al. IIASA 1998IIASA 1998
Energy Systems Analysis
Carbon Dioxide EmissionsCarbon Dioxide EmissionsTotal All SourcesTotal All Sources
75%
5%
95%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Glo
bal
CO
2 (
ind
ex,
1990=
1) N
ON
-CO
NT
RO
LC
ON
TR
OL
25%
Median
Nakicenovic Nakicenovic et al.et al. IIASA 1998IIASA 1998
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Macroeconomic Assumptions
Incomes in the OECD are still four times higher than in rest of the world in 2030
Per-Capita GDP
Incomes continue to
grow fastest in China
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
OECD
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Rest of developing Asia
India
Transition economies
China
average annual growth rate
2015-2030 2004-2015 1990-2004
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
Oil
Coal
Gas
BiomassNuclear
Other renewables
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
Primary Energy Demand by Region
World oil demand grows by just over half between 2004 and 2030, with 70% of the increase coming from developing countries
Developing countries become the
biggest energy consumers within
a decade
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
OECD Developing countries Transition economies
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
Implications for CO2 Emissions
Half of the projected increase in emissions comes from new power stations, mainly using coal & mainly located in China & India
Increase of
14.3 Gt (55%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2004 2010 2015 2030
billi
on t
onne
s
Coal Oil Gas
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
Energy-Related CO2 emissions by Region
China overtakes the US as the world’s biggest emitter before 2010, though its per capita emissions reach just 60% of those of the OECD in 2030
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gig
aton
nes
of C
O2
United States
China
Rest of non-OECD
Rest of OECD
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
World Primary Energy Demand
The impact of new policies – though far from negligible – is less marked in the period to 2015 because of the slow pace of capital stock turnover
11 000
12 000
13 000
14 000
15 000
16 000
17 000
18 000
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mto
e
Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario
% of Reference Scenario
4%
10%
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Global Savings in Energy-Related CO2
Emissions
Improved end-use efficiency of electricity & fossil fuels accounts for two-thirds of avoided emissions in 2030
Alternative Policy Scenario
Reference Scenario
Increased nuclear (10%)Increased renewables (12%)Power sector efficiency & fuel (13%)
Electricity end-use efficiency (29%)
Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%)
26
30
34
38
42
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt o
f CO
2
Proximate and Ultimate Drivers
Ultimate Drivers
Knowledge and
Understanding
Power
Structure
CultureValues and
Needs
Proximate Drivers
Population Economy Technology Governance
Source: Paul Raskin, 2002
Dimensions of Transition
Values
Knowledge
Demographic
Social
Economic
Governance
Technology
Source: Paul Raskin, 2002
Energy Systems Analysis
Alternative Scenario Formulations
Models
Stories
Scenarios
Quantitative
Qualitative
Source: IPCC SRES, 2000
Energy Systems AnalysisINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
IPCC Special ReportIPCC Special Report
IPCC Emissions ScenariosIPCC Emissions Scenarios
•• Extensive literature reviewExtensive literature review
•• Four narrative storylinesFour narrative storylines
•• Six modeling frameworksSix modeling frameworks
•• Forty emissions scenariosForty emissions scenarios
•• Six illustrative scenariosSix illustrative scenarios
Energy Systems Analysis
SRES ScenariosSRES ScenariosSRES Scenarios
A2
Ec
onom
y
Technolog
y En
ergy
Agricultu
re
(Land-use)
D r i v i n g F o r c e s
A1
B2
Global
Economic
Regional
Environmental
B1
P
opulat ion
Nakicenovic Nakicenovic et al.et al. SRES 2000SRES 2000
Energy Systems Analysis
Global Population Projections
World Population (SRES, n=40) (pre SRES, n=62)
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bill
ion
0
5
10
15
20
pre SRES range
SR
ES
pre
SR
ES
Energy Systems Analysis
Global Population Projections
World Population (post SRES, non intervention, n=64)
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
bill
ion
0
5
10
15
20
post SRES, non intervention range
Median
Energy Systems Analysis
GDP Growth Rates and Affluence
0
2
4
6
8
10
100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita, US(1990)$
India
An
nu
al g
row
th r
ate
of
GD
P, p
erc
en
t China Japan
China,Taiwan
Germany
Italy
OECD
REFs
DCs
Case B
Case A
Case A
Case CA2
A1
B1
B2
Energy Systems Analysis
World Economic MapAreas of Regions Proportional to 1990 GDP
(mer)
DCs = 16% of world GDP(mer); 35% of world GDP (ppp)
Energy Systems Analysis
GDP mer 1990
World Economic MapAreas of Regions Proportional to 1990 GDP
(mer)
Energy Systems Analysis
GDP mer 2100
GDP mer 2050
GDP mer 1990
Area of RegionsProportionalto 1990 GDPmer
World Economic Map
Energy Systems Analysis
0
20
40
60
80
100
10
00
US
$(9
0)
pe
r c
ap
ita
1990 A2 B2 B1 A1
4.2 3.0
1.8
1.6
Income ratio:
Developingcountries
(non-Annex-I)
Industrializedcountries
(Annex-I)
Per Capita Income Across SRES ScenariosPer Capita Income Across SRES Scenarios
Nakicenovic Nakicenovic et al.et al. IIASA 2000IIASA 2000
MER: 16
PPP: 4
25
Energy Systems AnalysisNakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA 2003IIASA 2003
Global Primary Energy ScenariosGlobal Primary Energy Scenarios
26
Energy Systems Analysis
Evolution of Global Primary Energy
Energy Systems Analysis
SHARES IN
PRIMARY
ENERGY
historical
1850
40%
1900
1950
1920
60%
20%
Renewables/Nuclear
100%80%60%40%20%
1970
60%40%
Coal
80%
100%
20% 80%
Oil/Gas
0%
0%
100%0%
A1T
B1A1C
B2
A1B
1990
Oil & gas
forever
Grand
transition
Muddling
through
Return
to coal
AS PATH
DEPENDENT
FUTURES
A1G
A2
ACROSS 40 IPCC SRES SCENARIOS
Energy Systems Analysis
TS Figure 5
Energy Systems Analysis
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Energy Systems Analysis
Population
Energy Systems Analysis
Night Lights
2000
Energy Systems Analysis
Night Lights
2070
Energy Systems Analysis
Surface TemperatureA1B, 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999
Source: IPCC-AR4, 2007
Energy Systems Analysis
Water Availability (Runoff)
Source: IPCC-AR4, 2007
A1B, 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999
Energy Systems Analysis
TS Figure 7 top
Energy Systems Analysis
TS Figure 7 bottom
Energy Systems Analysis
TS Figure 10
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
The Composition of the Atmosphere is Projected to Change
Causing an Increase in Temperature and Sea Level
39
Energy Systems Analysis
GHG Gases:
• Warming potentials
• Residence times
• Concentrations
• Radiative forcing
Energy Systems Analysis
Energy Systems Analysis
SRES Radiative Forcing
Energy Systems Analysis
CO2-eq. Emissions and
Temperature ChangeScenarios without additional climate policy
Source: IPCC-AR4, 2007
Energy Systems Analysis
Impacts & Temperature Change
Source:
IPCC-AR4, 2007
Impacts vary by:• Extend of adaptation
• Rate of T-change
• Socio-economic
pathway (vulnerability)
A2B1
Energy Systems Analysis
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
Climate Change
Impacts on
Cereal Production
Potential of
Food Insecure
Countries
2080s
Fischer et al.,
IIASA, 2001
Energy Systems Analysis
Climate Change
Impacts on
Cereal Production
Potential of
Food Insecure
Countries
2080s
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
Fischer et al.,
IIASA, 2001
Energy Systems Analysis
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture
vs. Adaptation (R&D) Capacity
Climate Sensitivity*% change in cereals
Adaptive CapacityAgricultural R&D 10
9$
public private TotalINDUSTRIAL +11 +25 6.9 11.0 17.9Latin America -23 -4 1.0Africa -13 -4 1.0Asia -2 +5 6.1DEVELOPING -11 -1 8.0 2.0 10.0
* Estimate for a temperature change of 1-3 ºC and rainfall change of 0-10%
Data: Climate impacts: Fischer et al., 2001. R&D: James, 1997; Pardey and Alston, 1995.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Stabilization of the Atmospheric Concentration of
CO2 Requires Significant Emissions Reductions
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
?
High versus Low Stabilization
Metz, Hare and Riahi, 2006
Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century.
Lowest scenarios “likely” to stay below 2°C
IPCC AR5, 2014
Achieving low levels of temperature change requires to limit cumulative CO2 emissions
Emissions budget for 2C is about 600-1200 GtCO2(historical emissions are about 1850 GtCO2)
Cumulative CO2 emissions Temperature change
IPCC AR5, 2014
Major advancement since AR4: Probabilistic interpretation of the scenario literature
Unlikely to stay below 2C
Likely to stay below 2C
IPCC AR5, 2014
Relationship between global GHG emissions and the likelihood of different temperature targets
CO2eq Concentrations in
2100 (CO2eq)
Category label (concentration
range) 9
Subcategories
Cumulative CO2 emission3
(GtCO2)
Change in CO2eq emissions compared to
2010 in (%)4 Temperature change (relative to 1850–1900)5,6
2011–2100 2050 2100
Likelihood of staying below temperature level over the 21st century8
1.5°C 2.0 °C 3.0 °C 4.0 °C
< 430 Only a limited number of individual model studies have explored levels below 430 ppm CO2eq 450
(430–480) Total range 1,10 630–1180 -72 to -41 -118 to -78
More unlikely than likely
Likely
Likely
Likely
500 (480–530)
No overshoot of 530 ppm CO2eq 960–1430 -57 to -42 -107 to -73
Unlikely
More likely than not
Overshoot of 530 ppm CO2eq 990–1550 -55 to -25 -114 to -90 About as likely as
not
550 (530–580)
No overshoot of 580 ppm CO2eq 1240–2240 -47 to -19 -81 to -59
More unlikely than likely12
Overshoot of 580 ppm CO2eq 1170–2100 -16 to 7 -183 to -86
(580–650) Total range 1870–2440 -38 to 24 -134 to -50
(650–720) Total range 2570–3340 -11 to 17 -54 to -21 Unlikely
More likely than not
(720–1000) Total range 3620–4990 18 to 54 -7 to 72 Unlikely11
More unlikely than likely
>1000 Total range 5350–7010 52 to 95 74 to 178 Unlikely11 Unlikely More unlikely
than likely
Emissions
budgets
Emissions
reductionsLikelihood of
temperature change
Concentration
Levels
IPCC AR5, 2014
Mitigation requires major technological and institutional changes including the upscaling of low- and zero carbon energy
“Likely” 2C“As likely as not” 2C
IPCC AR5, 2014
Stabilization and Emissions Peak
Source: IPCC-Ar4, 2007
(I)
(VI)
Stabilization and Emissions
Reductions
Source: IPCC-Ar4, 2007
(I)
(VI)
Global costs rise with the ambition of the mitigation goal.
58IPCC AR5, 2014
Availability of technology greatly influence mitigation costs.
59IPCC AR5, 2014
Mitigation costs can differ significantly across regions
Scenarios show substantial global financial flows between regions under
alternative burden sharing schemes IPCC AR5, 2014
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Energy Systems Analysis
World GHG EmissionsIIASA A2r Scenario
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
An
nu
al G
HG
em
issio
ns (
GtC
eq
uiv
)
Emissions without climate policy
Energy Systems Analysis
World GHG EmissionsIIASA A2r Scenario
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
An
nu
al G
HG
em
issio
ns (
GtC
eq
uiv
)
Energy Systems Analysis
World GHG EmissionsIIASA B1 Scenario
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
An
nu
al G
HG
em
issio
ns (
GtC
eq
uiv
)
Energy Systems Analysis
World GHG EmissionsIIASA B1 Scenario
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
An
nu
al G
HG
em
issio
ns (
GtC
eq
uiv
)
Energy Systems Analysis
ENERGY SYSTEMS COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE
BASELINES AND STABILIZATION SCENARIOS
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Cumulative CO2 Emissions [GtC]
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Dis
co
un
ted
Sy
ste
m
Co
sts
(1
99
0-2
10
0),
[tri
llio
n U
S$
]
A1CA1G
A1B
A1T
450ppmv CO2 stabilization
750ppmv650ppmv550ppmv
450ppmv
450ppmv
450ppmv
550ppmv
550ppmv
550ppmv
Baselines
750ppmv
2500
GEA-Efficiency
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pri
mary
Energ
y, E
J p
er
year
0
500
1000
1500
2000Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
Fossil CCS (optional bridging technology)
Bio-CCS & negative emissions
(long-term)
Phase-out of oil in the long term
(necessary)
Coal wCCS
Coal woCCS
Biomass wCCS
Biomass woCCS
Nuclear
Gas wCCS
Gas woCCS
Oil
Savings
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Efficiency & Demand-side Focus
(= high flexibility for supply)
~50% renewables by 2050
No expansion of nuclear (choice)
GEA-Supply
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Pri
mary
Energ
y, E
J p
er
year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Rapid up-scaling of all supply options
including renewables, nuclear and CCS
CCS mandatory at high demand
Coal wCCS
Coal woCCS
Biomass wCCS
Biomass woCCS
Nuclear
Gas wCCS
Gas woCCS
Oil
Savings
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Supply-side Focus
(= high demand-side flexibility)Modest efficiency focus
#69
GEA-Efficiency
Industry:
1. Retrofit of existing plants
2. Best available technology for
new investments
3. Optimization of energy &
material flows
4. Lifecycle product design &
enhanced recycling
5. Electrification incl. switch to
renewable energy
Global Final Energy Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ
/ y
r
Residential:
1. Rapid introduction of
strict building codes
2. Accelerate retrofit rate
to 3% of stock per
year (x 4 improvement
by 2050)
3. Improved electrical
appliances
Transport:
1. Technology
efficiency (50%)
2. Reduced private
mobility (eg urban
planning)
3. Infrastructure for
public transport +
railway freight
Source: Riahi et al, 2011
Energy Systems Analysis
Mitigation Options
• Demographic change
• Economic development
• Social behavior
• Efficiency Improvements
• Low carbon intensity
• Zero carbon (solar, nuclear)
• Carbon removal
• End deforestation
• Sink enhancements
• Non-CO2 Options (mostly non-energy)
• “geo-engineering”
Energy Systems Analysis9
RENEWABLES
Hoffert et al., Science, 2002
Energy Systems Analysis
Existing and Planned Projects
Sleipner Project, saline formation, North Sea
Weyburn, EOR, Saskatuan, Canada
In Salah, gas reservoir, Algeria (development)
Snohvit, off-shore saline formation, North Sea
Gorgon, saline formation, Australia (planning)
Source: Sally Benson, 2003
Energy Systems Analysis
Negative emissions!!
Hydrogen Production Systems and CCS“synergies between new technologies”
Hydrogen
Production
Plant
CO2
Separation
System
Feedstocks
(Natural Gas or Biomass)
CO2
Pipeline
CO2 DisposalEnd-use application
CO2
Pipeline
H2
Hydrogen
Production
Plant
CO2
Separation
System
Feedstocks
(Natural Gas or Biomass)
CO2
Pipeline
CO2 DisposalEnd-use application
CO2
Pipeline
H2
• 70% of total CO2
• pure and dense stream
• 30% of total CO2
• CO2 in flue gas
Negative emissions!!
Energy Systems Analysis 74
Energy Systems Analysis
Hydrogen Vehicles
75
Area Occupied by Various Transport Modes
Source: WBCSD, 2005
Energy Systems Analysis
A Future Energy System
Source: EU, 2004
WORLD
Energy Investments
(billion $ per year)Policy Mechanisms
2010
present
2010-2050 Regulation,
Standards
Externality
pricing
Careful
subsidies
Capacity
building
Efficiency3002 300-8003 essential
(elimination of less
efficient
technologies every
few years )
essential(cannot achieve
dramatic efficiency
gains without prices
that reflect full costs)
complement(ineffective without
price and regulation,
multiple instruments
possible4)
essential(expertise needed for
new technologies)
Nuclear5-401 5-210 essential
(waste disposal
regulation & for fuel-
cycle to prevent
proliferation)
uncertain(GHG pricing helps
nuclear but prices
reflecting nuclear risks
would hurt)
uncertain(has been important
in past, but with
GHG pricing
perhaps no needed)
desired7
(need to correct the
loss of expertise of
recent decades)
Renewables190 260-1010 complement
(renewable portfolio
standards can
complement GHG
pricing)
essential(GHG pricing is key to
rapid deployment of
renewables)
complement(feed-in-tariff and
tax credits for R&D /
production can
complement GHG
pricing)
essential(expertise needed for
new technologies)
CCS<1 0-64 essential
(CCS requirement
for all new coal
plants and phase-in
with existing)
essential(GHG pricing is
essential, but even this
unlikely to be sufficient
in near term)
complement(would help with first
plants while GHG
price still low)
desired7
(expertise needed for
new technologies)
Infrastructure,
including
reliability5
260 310-500 essential(security regulations
critical for some
aspects of reliability)
uncertain(neutral effect)
essential(customers must
pay for reliability
levels they value)
essential(expertise needed for
new technologies)
Access6
n.a. 36-41 essential(ensure
standardization but
must not hinder
development)
uncertain(could reduce access
by increasing costs of
fossil fuel products)
essential(grants for grid,
micro-financing for
appliances, careful
subsidies for
cooking fuels)
essential(create enabling
environment –
technical, legal,
institutional,
financial)
Strategies for Universal Energy Access by 2030Present Situation - Investments and Benefits to 2030
Regional Total
Legend
Map (2010)
Future investments and health benefits by 2030
Health Benefits of Pollution Control(loss of stat. life expectancy - PM)
Source: Dentener et al, 2009
Energy
Access
Energy
Security
Climate Change
The Key Energy Challenges
Air Pollution/
Health Impacts
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal
Po
licy
Co
sts
(20
10
-20
30)
CC PH
ES
CC PH
ES
CC PH
ES
CC PH
ES
All objectives fulfilled at
Stringent level
At least one objective
fulfilled at
Intermediate
level
At least one objective
fulfilled at
Weak level
Policy Prioritization Framework
CC – Climate ChangePH – Pollution & Health
ES – Energy Security
Policy Costs of Different Objectives
Added costs of ES and PH are
comparatively low when CC is
taken as an entry point
D. McCollum, V. Krey, K. Riahi (2011)
Only ClimateOnly PollutionOnly Energy
Security
All Three Objectives
Integrated Climate-Pollution-
Security Policies
Energy Systems Analysis
Development & Climate Change
Energy Systems Analysis
Environmental Change:
Development vs. Climate
• More ecosystems will be destroyed by economic development than by the climate change that this development induces
• Far more human lives are threatened by a lack of development than by any climate change resulting from a closure of the development gap
• “business-as-usual” + climate control vs sustainability paradigm
Energy Systems Analysis
North -- South
• Responsibility: Mostly in Annex-I (but declining)
• Vulnerability: Mostly in “South” (but declining)
• Adaptation capacity: Mostly in Annex-I
• Future emission growth: Mostly in “South”
• Near-term mitigation potential:
Highest in Annex-I (high emissions)
• Near-term mitigation costs:
Lowest in “South” (high in-efficiency)
Energy Systems Analysis
Cumulative Carbon Emissions by Source and Region 1850-2005 (320 GtC)Data source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/products.html
Energy Systems Analysis
Per Capita GHGs by Region vs. Population in 2004Source: IPCC AR4, 2007
Annex I:
GHGs: 47.7%
Non-Annex I:
GHGs: 52.3%
Energy Systems Analysis
Kyoto-Protocol Objectives:
• All participants (states) together commit to reduce emissions compared to 1990 by 5.2% until 2012
• Parties have differentiated commitments considering projected economic growth – EU should reduce emissions by 8 %
– Russia (and other ETs) should keep emissions constant at 1990 level
– No binding commitments for China, India and other developing countries
• The protocol was finalized 1997, and went into force 2005 as more than 55 states accounting for more than 55% of total emissions did ratify the protocol (due to Russia’s signature 65% or 141 countries had ratified at that time)
• Key players (e.g., US or Australia) did not ratify the protocol
Energy Systems Analysishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol
91
The Copenhagen Accord PARIS 2015
A goal …
Staying below an increase of 2 degrees Celsius (1.50 C)
A means to get there …
Country pledges to control emissions (pegged to 2020 and 2030)
Is there a gap between …
What we are aiming for … Where we are heading ?
Copenhagen
December, 2009
Photo: http://gogreenindia.co.in/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/official-white-house-photo-at-cop15-copenhagen-usa-india-
brazil-south-africa-china.jpg
Paris Agreement
- New voluntary country pledges
- Bottom-up
- (almost) all countries
Resulting Emissions of the Paris Agreement
Rogelj et al., 2016
Treibhausgas-Prognose ohne Klima
Strategien
Water
Impacts of climate change mitigation policy on thermal
water pollution (energy-related)
Range of 2ºC scenarios
No climate policy
Fricko e
t al., 2016,
Environm
enta
l R
esearc
h L
ett
ers
Air Pollution and Health
Black Carbon & Sulfur Emissions
co-benefits
Food & Hunger
Food Securityin 2050
Inclusive development & climate policies are key to reduce risk of
hunger for simultaneous achievement of SDG 2 (hunger) and 13
(climate).
AIM/CGE model, Fujimori et al. (in preparation)
Food Securityin 2050
Inclusive development & climate policies are key to reduce risk of
hunger for simultaneous achievement of SDG 2 (hunger) and 13
(climate).
AIM/CGE model, Fujimori et al. (in preparation)
Food Securityin 2050
Inclusive development & climate policies are key to reduce risk of
hunger for simultaneous achievement of SDG 2 (hunger) and 13
(climate).
AIM/CGE model, Fujimori et al. (in preparation)
Energy Transformation SDGs (preliminary: McCollum et al, forthcoming)
Synergies Tradeoffs
Energy Systems Analysis
IIASAIIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Interest in Internships:
riahi@iiasa.ac.at
Exam: 29 June, 2017