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Energy Shocks and Emerging Alternative Energy Technologies GrahamMTurnerCSRIOSustainableEcosystems,Canberra,ACT,Australia
Sino-Australian Joint Research Forum, 21-23 July 2010
Collaboration and Governance in the Asia Pacific
Abstract Sincetheavailabilityofcheapandsuitableenergyunderpinsinmanywaysbothdevelopedanddevelopingeconomies,itiscrucialthatnationaleconomiesarepreparedforpotentialenergyshocks.Shocksmayarisefromphysicalconstraints,suchasapeakinnationalandglobalproductionrateofoil,orfrominstitutionalconstraints,suchaseconomicincentivestoreducegreenhousegasemissions.WeexaminepotentialmodelledscenariosforChinaandAustralia,toexploretheextentofsuchshocks.Themodelsarebasedonstockandflowdynamicsofthephysicalactivitythroughoutnationaleconomies.Thewhatifscenariosallowustoanalyseoptionsthataimtoreduceoreliminatetheimpactofenergyshocksthroughtheuseofalternativeenergytechnologiesandotheroptions.Whenconsideringthesealternatives,itisnecessarytoincorporateintheanalysistherateofchangerequiredinanytransition,andpotentialcrosssectoralsideeffects.
Introduction TheimportanceofenergytothesmoothoperationofglobalandnationaleconomiesisevidentinthetightcorrelationofenergyandGDP(e.g.,(Foran,2009)).Developedanddevelopingeconomiesrelyonarangeofenergycarriers,butarecriticallydependentonoilfortransportandelectricityforahostofindustrialandcommercialpurposes.Potentialdisruptionsinsupplyoftheseenergycarriersthereforeimplysignificantriskstoeconomies.
Forexample,theoilshocksofinthe1970sand80sdemonstratedsomeeconomicimpactofconstraintsinoilsupply.However,thenatureofeventheseimportanteventsisperhapslesscriticalthanthosefacingglobaleconomiesincontemporarytimes.Intheearlieroilshocks,whichweretriggeredwhenUSsupplyofoilhadreachedpeakproduction,globalresourceswerestillabundant,andtheshocksweremoreaquestionofestablishingasuitablepriceforoilontheinternationalmarket.Bycontrastincontemporarytimes,thereareconcernsfromsomecommentatorsthatglobaloilproductionmayhavepeakedorbenearingthatsituation.
Energyshocksmayalsooccuratthetailpipeoremissionsendoftheenergysystem.Alargeproportionofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsoccursdirectlyfromthecombustionoffossilfuelsintheproductionofelectricity,heatandtransport
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services.ReductionactionstodatehavebeennegligibledespitescientificadvicefromtheIPCCandothers(e.g.,[Stern,Garnaut])advocatingearlyandlargereductionstoavoiddangerousclimatechange.AsGHGemissionsincreaseandclimatechangeimpactsworsen,thereisthepossibilitythatconcernabouttheimpactsofclimatechangemaygrowandgalvaniseactiononreducingGHGemissions.Thismayoccurquicklywithademandforrapidaction,carryingwithittheexpectationthatsubstantialchangesbemadetoelectricitygenerationandotherenergysupplysystems.
Thispaperexaminesthesepotentiallycriticalenergyshocksandtowhatextentemergingenergytechnologiesmayhelpalleviateoravoidtheshocks.Thenextsectionoutlinesthemagnitudeoftheseenergychallengesfacingnationalandglobaleconomies.Anoverviewofalternativeenergyoptionsisprovidedinthefollowingsection,whichalsodescribesotherimpactsorrequirementsthatareassociatedwiththeseoptions,butarerarelyconsidered.Thissuggeststheneedforwidersystemanalysisofalternativeoptions,andthestocksandflowsmodellingsystemofnationaleconomiesforsuchanalysisissubsequentlydescribed.Inthefinalmainsectionofthispaper,resultsarepresentedfromthestocksandflowsanalysisthataredrawnfromacollectionofseparatestudies.Thesearecomparedwithotherrecentstudiesdealingwithtransportfuelandgreenhousegaschallenges,andasummarygivenofcriticalissuesthatwillneedtobeaddressedifenergyshocksaretobeaverted.Thepaperconcludeswithaconsiderationofthelikelihoodofavertingtransportfuelandgreenhousegasrelatedenergyshocks.
Potential Energy Shocks Thissectionoutlinesthemagnitudeoftwopotentiallycriticalenergychallengesfacingnationalandglobaleconomies.
Transportfuel
Theissueofpeakoilhasbeenrecognisedbysomecommentatorsformanydecades(Deffeyes,2001),andhasitsbaseintheestimatesmadeinthe1950sbyHubbertonUSoilproduction.Peakoilreferstothesituationwhenproductionofoilreachesanupperrateandsubsequentlydeclines,andassuchitdoesnotimplyexhaustionofafinitemineralresource.However,theconcernaroundpeakoilissimplythatthesupplyratewillnotbeabletosatisfyanticipateddemandoncethepeakhasoccurred.
ProductionofoilintheUSpeakedintheearly1970s,asforecastbyHubbert(vindicatinghisanalysisaftermuchderisionfromtheoilindustry).AlthoughfuelefficiencymeasureswereencouragedanddomesticoilfieldsexpandedintheUS,thegapbetweendomesticsupplyandgrowingdemandwaslargelysolvedbyimportingMiddleEasternoil.ThiscamewitheconomicdisruptionsasOPECmanipulatedproductionandregionalwarssubstantiallyaffectedpricesontheinternationalmarket.Sincethistime,severalothermajorfields(e.g.,UKsNorthSeaoil)havereachedpeakproductionandareindecline(Sorrelletal.,2010).Despitethisexperience,itisonlyinrecentyearsthattheissueofglobalpeakoilhasgainedcredencebeyondtheprevioussmallnumberofanalystspromulgatingtheissue;for
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example,withthereleaseoftheWorldEnergyOutlook2008(andEnergyTechnologyPerspective2008)theconservativeInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)formallyrecognisedconstraintsinconventionaloilsupply.InAustralia,domesticoilproductionisforecastbyGeoscienceAustraliatodeclineovercomingyears,evenwithundiscoveredresourcesfactoredin(GA,2009).However,differingviewsremainaboutwhenaglobalpeakmayoccur(orifitisinprogressnow)(see(Owenetal.,2010,Sorrelletal.,2010)forrecentoverviews),andwhattheeffectswillbe(andpotentialgeopoliticalresponsessuchasthoseexaminedin(Friedrichs,2010)).
Whatdistinguishesvariousforecastsoffutureoilproductionandpeaking(ifany)isuncertaintyabouttheultimaterecoverableresource(URR)andtowhatextentnonconventionalsourcesofoil,suchasdeepwaterresources,tarsandsandextraheavyoil,shouldbeincluded.Productionfromconventionaloilyettobediscoveredisunlikelytocontributesignificantly,onthebasisofsubstantialfallsindiscoveriessincethemajorfieldsfoundinthe1960s.Consequently,energyagenciesandlargepetrochemicalcompaniesmakeforecaststhatseeproductioncontinuingtoincrease(orpeakingbeyond2020)throughwidespreaduseofnonconventionaloilthatisassumedtobedevelopedtomeetincreasingdemand.Incontrast,independentresearchershaveforecastpeakproductiontogenerallyoccurby2020atthelatest(ifnotalreadytakingplace)(Sorrelletal.,2010).
Demandforoilisexpectedtoincreasedueprimarilytoitsfundamentalroleinpoweringtransport.Theincreaseisbasedonexpectationsofcontinuedeconomicgrowth,increasinguseofcarsandotheroilbasedvehiclesindevelopingcountries,andpopulationgrowth.Somealleviationofdemandislikelyasotherfuelssubstituteforoilbasedheatingsystems.Evenwithoutgrowthindemand,modernanddevelopingeconomiesareclearlycriticallydependentonoilbasedtransport.Withoutadequatetransportservices,essentialcomponentsofsocietyandeconomieswouldbejeopardised,suchasmechanisedfoodproduction,freightmovement,businesstravelandevenlabouraccesstowork.
Aconstrictioninsupplyofoilmayaffectothereconomicfunctions.Forinstance,plasticsandotherbyproductsofthepetrochemicalindustryarewidelyusedthroughouttheeconomy.Anincreasingoilpriceaffectfoodproductionbystimulatingadditionaldemandfornaturalgas,andtherebyputspressureonnitrogenfertiliserswhichusenaturalgasasafeedstock.
Greenhousegasemissions
Shockstoenergysystemsmayalsooccurindirectlythroughpotentialconstraintsappliedtotheemissionofgreenhousegasesinordertomitigateclimatechange.Currently,energyuseaccountsforthemajorityofGHGemissions,withthecombustionoffuelsforstationaryenergyusecontributingalargefraction,alongwithtransportuse.Therefore,anysubstantialreductioninGHGemissionswillinvolvelargechangestotheenergysystem.
Inordertoavoidthepotentialfordangerousclimatechange,theIPCChasrecommendedarangeofreductionsofGHGemissionsthatshouldbeachievedby2050.Relativeto1990levelsofemissions,theglobaltargetreductionin2050is80
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90%.Differentreductiontargetsaresuggestedforreductionsattributedtodevelopinganddevelopednations(e.g.,50%and90%respectively).
Unlesslargechangesaremade,emissionsarelikelytobesubstantiallyhigherthancurrentemissions.RecentmeasurementsindicatethatglobalemissionsarecloselytrackingontheA1FlscenarioproducedintheIPCCFourthAssessment,whicheffectivelyconstitutesbusinessasusual(BAU).RelativetothisBAUsituationin2050,therecommendedemissionreductionsarethereforeevenmoresubstantial.
Alternative Energy Options Anoverviewofalternativeenergyoptionsisprovidedinthissection,whichalsodescribesotherimpactsorrequirementsthatareassociatedwiththeseoptions,butarerarelyconsidered.
Overviewofpotentialtransportfueltechnologies
Arangeofalternativeenergytechnologiesandoptionsexistforprovidingtransportfuels.Arguablythemostsimilarwithcurrentpetroleumfuelsissimplytheexpansionintosocallednonconventionaloils.Theseareliquidfossilfuelsthatexistinformsorlocationsthatrequiresignificantlydifferentprocessestoextractthem.Otherfossilfuelscanbeusedfortransport,mostnotablynaturalgas;andcoalcanbeconvertedtoaliquidfuel.Severaldifferentliquidfuelscanalsobeproducedfromcropsandotherbiomass,andevenpotentiallyfromalgae.Finally,landandseatransportcanbepoweredbyelectricsystemsusingbatteriesorhydrogenfuelcellstostoretheenergy.
Alloptionsfortransportfuels,includingconventionaloil,haveimplicationsthatneedtobeconsideredfortheirfeasibilityanddesirabilityintermsofimpactsontheenvironment,resourcesandeconomy.Inmostcases,theimplicationsmaybesubstantialandcomplex,asTable1summarises.
Forthefuelalternativeslisted,additionalresourcesareoftenneeded,suchaswater,landandminerals.Thesemayalreadybeconstrained,sothattheadditionalimpostassociatedwithfuelproductionwouldincreasestressontheseresources.SomefueloptionsarelikelytoleadtohigherGHGemissionsperunitoffuelconsumption,thoughthiscouldbereversedinthecaseofelectricpowersystemswiththeuseofrenewableelectricitygeneration.WhenhigherGHGintensitiesarecombinedwithincreaseddemandanticipatedwitheconomicgrowth,absoluteemissionswouldincreaserapidly.Asimilarrecentreviewofalternativesisavailablein(Diesendorfetal.,2008).
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Table1.Alternativetechnologyoptionsforprovidingtransportandfuels,andsomerequirements(inputsandinfrastructure)andpotentialenvironmentalimpacts.
Technology Description Resourceinputs Infrastructure Environmental/resourceimpacts
Nonconventionalresources
Petroleumproductsderivedfromdeepwaterresources;tarsands;extraheavyoil
Higherenergyinputs;Water
Extractionandprocessingplant
IncreasedGHG;Waterpollution;Environmentalaccidents(e.g.,GulfofMexicoDeepwaterHorizon)
Lowerfuelconsumptionengines
Modalshift Railbasedfreightandpassengertransit
Electricity(orotherconventionalfuel)
Expandedrailnetwork GHGfromelectricitygeneration
Naturalgas Compressedandliquefiednaturalgas
Energyforcompression,etc.
Pipelines;Shipping;Fuelstationrefit;Enginechangeover
ReducedGHGperunitfuelconsumption;Competitionforfiniteresource(similartooilinenergyterms)
Coaltoliquids Oilproducedfromcoal
Coal;Water;Energyforprocessing
Manufacturingplant IncreasedGHG;Competitionforwaterresources
Biofuels(e.g.,Ethanol,Methanol,Biodiesel)
Productionofliquidfuelbasedone.g.:Cropsandstubble;Secondgenerationbiomass;Oilproducingalgae
Land;Water;Fertilisers;Energytoharvestandprocess
Manufacturingplant
Competitionwithfoodsystems(&forests);Soildegradation;Competitionforwaterresources
Compressedairpower Otherenergyusedtocompressair,whichislaterreleasedtodeveloppower
Electricity? Minimal? GHGfromelectricitygeneration
Electricvehicles(andhybrids)
Batterybasedpowerforelectricmotors;Notapplicableforaircraft
Heavymetals(Lithium?);Electricityproduction
Transmission/distributionnetwork;Rechargingstationsorbatteryexchange
IncreasedGHGdependingonsourceofelectricity;Wastebatteriesandtoxicchemicals
Hydrogenfuelcells Fuelcellpowerforelectricmotors;Notapplicableforaircraft
Naturalgas;Water;Catalysts(e.g.,xxx);Electricityforelectrolysis
ManufacturingplantPipelines;Rechargingstations
IncreasedGHGdependingonsourceofelectricity
OftheoptionsandcriteriainTable1,potentiallytheleastdemandingistheuseofnaturalgas.Inthiscase,atransitiontogaswouldnecessitatethecreationofnewinfrastructure(andenginetechnology)toreplacethatforthedeliveryofoil,evenbeforeallowingforexpansionduetoeconomicgrowth.Gasasatransportfuelwouldcompetewiththatusedinelectricityproductionandheating.Whilenonconventionalresourceestimateshaveincreasedrecently,theURRisofthesameorderasthatforoil.Therefore,givenexponentialgrowthindemandthegasresourcecouldreachpeakproductioninseveraldecades.
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OverviewoftechnologiesforGHGreductioninelectricitygenerationanduse
AsimilarsummaryofalternativetechnologyoptionsforreducingGHGemissionsassociatedwithelectricitygeneration(anduse)isprovidedinTable2.Thelistoftechnologiesisnotexhaustivebutcapturesthewiderangeinpotentialoptionsavailable.Thetechnologiesareassessedaccordingtotheirstageofdevelopmentandtherelatedissueofwhenthetechnologiescouldrealisticallybeavailableforlargescaledeployment.Itisalsoimportanttoreviewtechnologiesfortheirimpactsonorrequirementsforresourcesandinfrastructure.
Itisevidentfromthisbriefoverviewofpotentialtechnologyoptionsthatthereareseveralalternativesthatappeartobemorereadilyavailableandcouldbedeployedrelativelyquickly.Alloptionsalsoinvolvesomeimpactonresourcesorinfrastructuredevelopment,tosomeextent.Itisnotclearfromsuchaqualitativereviewhowever,whethertheadditionalimplicationsandtimeframeswouldinhibitrapidreductionsinGHGemissionssufficienttoavoiddangerousclimatechange.
AsimilarhighlevelassessmenthasbeenmadebyMacgill(Macgill,2008),concludingthatenergyefficiencyandgasbasedandrenewableenergyoptionsofferbetterpossibilitiesforreducingGHGemissionsrapidly.Macgillnotestheneedforscenariosimulationsthatdealwiththemanycriticalaspectsofalternativetechnologies,notjusttheultimatesizeoftheresource.
Suchreviewspointtotheneedforsystemwideassessmentofalternativetechnologyoptions.Adescriptionofsuchanapproachisprovidedinthenextsection,andresultsfromaselectionofstudiesusingthissystemgiveninthefollowingsection.
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Table2.CharacteristicsofstationaryenergytechnologiesforreducingGHGemissions.
Technology variations Developmentphase
Potentialdeployment
Resources/infrastructure
Energyefficiency enduse;generation&distribution
maturemature
immediate turnoverofinefficientdevices
Gasfueled CombinedcycleGas
mature immediate accesstogasresources
Nuclearenergy Fission;3rdGeneration
maturewellresearched
immediate uraniumresources,processing,disposalandsecurityissues
Fusion earlyresearch manydecades massiveinfrastructure;seawaterfeedstock
Thorium veryearlyresearch decades? unknowninfrastructurerequirements;largethoriumresourcesareavailable
CarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)
Geological research,withlittledeploymentatscale
decades pipelinetransmission;compression;securityofstorage(&relatedsizeofstorage)
Biochar earlyresearch yearsdecades potentialsoilimplications(positive&negative?)andlimits
Renewableelectricitygeneration
Wind mature immediate energystorage,redundantfarmsortransmissionnetworkforvariability
Solar(PV&Thermal)
mature immediate accesstospecificmineralsforPVsystems
Hydro mature immediate environmentalwaterresourceimpacts
Biomass earlyresearch,throughtomature
immediatedecades land,water,fertiliser(andother?)inputs
Othertidal research yearsdecades suitablecoastalenvironments
Geothermal Thermalenergy
mature immediate newinfrastructure;
Electricitygeneration
research decades notdemonstratedatscale;electricitytransmissionnetwork
System Modelling of Options Giventheneedforwidersystemanalysisofalternativeoptions,thestocksandflowssystemformodellingnationaleconomiesforsystemwideanalysisisdescribedinthissection.
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TheAustralianStocksandFlowsFramework(ASFF)
TheASFFmodelisatechnologyandprocessbasedsimulationofthephysicalactivityinallsectorsofthenationaleconomy.ItisahighlydisaggregatesimulationofallphysicallysignificantstocksandflowsintheAustraliansocioeconomicsystem(Poldyetal.,2000,ForanandPoldy,2004,Turneretal.,2010a).InthecurrentversionoftheASFFthereover800multidimensionalvariables(about300thatareexogenous).Stocksarethequantitiesofphysicalitemsatapointintime,suchasland,livestock,people,buildings,etc.,andareexpressedinnumbersorSIunits.MuchofthephysicalcapitalintheAPSFF,suchasvehicles,buildingsandfactories,isvintagedaccordingtotheyeartheadditionalcapitalormachinerywasintroduced.Consequently,efficienciescanbeassociatedwithparticularvintages,andtheaginganddecommissioningofvintagedcapitalissimulated.Flowsrepresenttheratesofchangeresultingfromphysicalprocessesoveratimeperiod,suchasthe(net)additionsofagriculturalland,immigrationandbirthrates,etc.
TheASFFsimulatesthedynamicsofmajorcapitalandresourcepools,andtheflowsassociatedwiththesestockssuchasinputsofnaturalresources,manufacturingoutput,andchangesincapitalincludingbuildings,infrastructureandmachinery(Figure1).Naturalresources(land,water,air,biomassandmineralresources)arerepresentedexplicitly,andflowsofrawmaterialsareharvestedorextractedfromthedomesticenvironment(bottomofFigure1).Materialsaregenerallyprogressivelytransformedtobecomegoodsandtoprovidethebasisforservicesforthepopulation(followingflowsupwardinFigure1).Partoftheframeworkincorporatesaphysicalinputoutputmodelforthetransformationofbasicmaterialsandenergytypes(Lennoxetal.,2005).Sometransformationsinvolvethecreationofsecondaryenergyflows(totheleftinFigure1),whichareusedthroughouttheeconomy.Allowanceisalsomadeforrecyclingofwasteflows,andforimprovementsoradditionsmadetotheenvironmentalresources(e.g.,forests).Otherwise,wastesandemissionsreturntotheenvironment.Materialsatvariousstagesoftransformationsandenergymayenterorexitthenationaleconomyasimportsorexports(totheleftandrightofFigure1respectively).Likewise,immigrationandinternationaltravellersaddtothepermanentandtemporarypopulationdynamics.Finally,thepopulationprovidesalabourforceforthevarioussectorsoftheeconomy(topofFigure1).
Geographically,theASFFcoverscontinentalAustralia,includingthemarineareawithinAustraliaseconomicexclusionzone(forfishingandfuels).Withinspecificsectorsoftheframeworkdifferentgeographicresolutionsareused.ThetemporalextentoftheASFFislongterm:scenariosoverthefuturearecalculatedto2100,andthemodelrunsoverthehistoricalperiodtoreproducetheobserveddata.
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Figure1.Flowsofphysicalquantitiesinto,outof,andthroughanationaleconomy,modelledintheAustralianStocksandFlowsFramework.
TheAsiaPacificStocksandFlowsFramework(APSFF)
AsimilarstocksandflowsframeworkwasdevelopedtocovertheAsiaPacificregionforaUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramstudyintotheregionsresourceuseandemissions(Turneretal.,2010b).Structurally,theAPSFFborrowsmanyofitsfeaturesfromthedetailedAustralianframework.Geographically,theAPSFFrepresentsnationsasdiscreteentities.Distinctionsarealsomadebetweenruralandurbanareas,butthesearenotexplicitlylocated.Scenariossimulationsextendto2050,andthemodelisalsorunoveranhistoricalperiodof19702009.
TheAPSFFiscalibratedfortheperiod19702009,inannualstepsusingdatafromawiderangeofsourcese.g.,UNtradestatistics,FAOfoodandagriculturedatabase,IEAenergyproductionandconsumptiondata,andUSGSmineralresourcedatabase.Inthisapproach,theaimofcalibrationistoreproducehistoricaldataexactlyateachtimestep,inordertopreservewidelyrecognisedandavailabledata.Thisisquitedifferentfromthecalibrationofaneconometricorregressionmodelwheretheaimistofitmathematicalfunctionstodata.Calibrationtodatehasfocusedoneightmajoreconomies,representing74%oftheAsiaPacificpopulationand84%ofitseconomicactivity.
Interactionsandfeedbacksbetweenthephysicalandeconomicsystems
Thestocksandflowssystemsdescribedaboveareverysuitabletoexaminewhatiftypequestionssurroundingalternativetechnologyandconsumptionbehaviour.Inthissensetheyareanalogoustoflightsimulators,whereoperatorscantrydifferentstrategiesandcompareoutcomes.Thismoderequiresotherconditionsofthescenario,suchaseconomicgrowth,tobesuppliedexogenouslyasinputstothesimulations.
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Inrecentadvances,twoseparateapproacheshavebeentakentoincorporateeconomicsettingsinternallywithinthescenariosimulations.Thismeansthateconomicgrowthisendogenoustothesimulationsitisanoutcomeratherthananassumptionofthesimulation.
Inthefirstapproach,bothproduction(primaryandsecondaryindustryoutput)andfinaldemandconsumptionareadjustedtosimultaneouslymaintainatargetunemploymentrateandatargettradebalance(relativetoGDP).Thelevelof(un)employmentisaresultofthepopulationsize,itsageprofile,theparticipationrate,labourproductivity,andthevariouseconomicactivitiesrequiringlabour.IfnootherchangeismadetotheASFFinputs,thenincreasedproductivity(labourinputperunitoutputandotherefficiencies)leadstoincreasedunemploymentduetothesimplefactthatthesameeconomicoutputcanbeachievedwithfewerworkers.Withtheproductivitygrowthassumedabove,massunemploymentoftheorderof50%occursafterseveraldecades.
Toachieveastableunemploymentlevelandreplicatepasteconomicconditions,thebackgroundscenariosincorporatereemploymentofdisplacedlabourthroughincreasedeconomicactivity.Itwasassumedthatthetrendsinlabourparticipationratesarenotchangedfromtheirbackgroundsettings.Consequently,inthebackgroundscenarios,finaldemandconsumptionwasincreased(ordecreased)inordertolower(orraise)theunemploymentrate.Themodellingcalculationsallowforserviceworkerssupportingthephysicallyproductivesectorsoftheeconomy.
Theotherkeymacroeconomicindicatorsimulatedistheinternationaltradebalance(relativetogrossdomesticproduct,GDP).Thenetforeigndebt(NFD)relativetoGDPhasincreasedoverrecentdecades,to52%in2006(Kryger,2009).Highratesofdebt(andsurplus)areconsideredtobecontrarytoastablenationaleconomy.Inonemeasureoftheeconomy,thenetforeigndebtiscomparedwiththenationsGDPinordertojudgewhetheraneconomyisoverstretchedtopayitsinternationaldebt.
ThenetforeignbalanceintheASFFwasadjustedbychangestoexportsandimports,andinternationaltravel(inboundvisitors,andoutboundAustralians),andinvestment.ItispossibletoachievethesameNFDthroughdifferentcombinationsofchangestoexports,importsandinvestment;however,thisstudy(todate)hasnotexploredthissensitivity.Adjustmentstoexportsweremadebyalteringactivityinbothprimaryandsecondaryindustry,afterallowingfordomesticrequirementstobemetfromtheseindustries(whereAustralianexportsarealargefractionofAustralianproduction).Internationaltravelandinvestmentwereadjustedbythesameproportionasexports.Importswereadjustedbychangingthefractionofthedomesticdemandforgoods/commoditiesthatisobtainedfromoverseas.ThesechangesalsoalterGDP,sothataniterativefeedbackcalculationisnecessarytoachievethespecifiedNFD:GDPratio.
Inthesecondapproach,adynamicnonequilibriumfinancialmodeloftheeconomywasused,andlinkedtothephysicalstocksandflowsmodel.Amultisectoralmodelofadynamicmonetaryeconomybasedonnonequilibriumassumptionsisusedto
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simulateeconomicgrowth(asopposedtoitbeinganinputassumptiontoCGEmodels)andtocapturetheinherentlycyclicalnatureofthisgrowth.TheeconomicmodelisbasedonMonetaryCircuitTheory(MCT)andcapturesthenonequilibriumdynamicsofthemonetaryeconomy(loans,investment,etc.),anditsinteractionwiththeproductiveeconomy(labour,consumption,etc.)(Keen,1995,Keen,2009).Thisenablesscenarioswithrealisticeconomiccyclestounderpintheresourceusetrajectoriesinthebiophysicalmodel.Suchanintegratedapproachdescribesdifferentaspectsofasingleoveralleconomicreality(i.e.materialandmonetary).
Themonetarymodelisadynamicsimulationofthefinancialandphysicalflowsthatmustoccurinaneconomy,augmentedbysimplebehaviouralrelationships.Thisisthefirstevereconomicmodeltoworkexplicitlyintermsofmonetaryflows.Therefore,thesimulationisdrivenbythefinancialsector,whichistreatedasanaggregateprivatebankthatmaintainsbankaccountsforitselfandthetwomainclassesinsociety,firms(orcapitalists)andhouseholds(orworkers).Thefinancialsectorcreatescreditmoneybycreditingeachfirmsectorwithmoney(andsimultaneouslythedebtofeachsectorisincreasedbythesameamount).Thisenablesfirmsittoinvest,purchaseintermediateinputsfromtheothersectors,andhireworkers.Themoneysupplycanexpandinresponsetofirmsdemands,andthelevelofdebtgrowscommensuratelywiththisincreaseinthemoneysupply.
Theuniquemonetarynatureofthemodelmeansthatthreeadditionalmonetarybehaviouralfunctionsexist:therateofloanrepayment,therateofcirculationofexistingmoney,andtherateofcreationofnewmoneyareallmodelledasnonlinearfunctionsoftherateofprofit.
LinkagefromtheMCTtotheAPSFFgivesthelattercyclicalpredictionsoffuturedemandratherthansmoothlygrowingdemandfrompopulationgrowth,technicalchangeandchangesinlivingstandards.Thislinkageiscommunicatedviaunemploymentlevels,usingthesamebackgroundassumptionsofgrowthinlabourproductivity.ThisapproachwasappliedtoanalysisoftheresourceuseandemissionsoftheAsiaPacificregion,asdescribedinthenextsection.
Scenario Simulations of Options and Assumptions Inthisfinalmainsectionofthispaper,resultsarepresentedfromthestocksandflowsanalysisthataredrawnfromacollectionofseparatestudies.Theapproachofotherrecentstudiesdealingwithtransportfuelandgreenhousegaschallengesissummarisedandcomparedwiththepresentanalysis,andasummarygivenofcriticalissuesthatwillneedtobeaddressedifenergyshocksaretobeaverted.ThefirstsubsectionexaminestheissueofGHGemissionsandthepotentialintheenergysystemtoreducethese.Analysisispresentedatregional(AsiaPacific),national(China,Australia)anddowntosubnationallevels(StateofVictoria).Thesecondsubsectionlooksmorecloselyattheissueoftransportfuelandtransitionstoalleviatedependenceonoil.
SystemsimulationsofenergyandGHGemissions
ResultsarefirstpresentedinthissectionfromthemodellingoftheAsiaPacificregionusingthecoupledbiophysicalandeconomicmodels(Turneretal.,2010b).
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Theyshowthesimulationresultsforthescenariosover20102050,aswellasthesimulatedhistoryfrom1970.Threescenarioshavebeenconstructedtoillustratefutureresourceusepossibilitiesandtheirconsequences.Thebusinessasusualorreferencescenariorepresentsthecontinuationofcurrentpoliciesandprovidesameasureofthescaleofsomeoftheproblemsthathavebeenanticipatedtoflowfromthem.Theessentialfeatureofthebusinessasusualscenarioisthatmajorhistoricaltrendsarecontinued.
Asecondscenarioinvolveswidespreadtechnologicalprogress,intheformofefficiencygains.Thishighefficiencyscenarioappliestophysicalprocessesusedintheextanteconomicstructure.Theamountofmaterial,energyandwaterresourcesusedperunitoutputiscontinuouslydecreasedincompoundingannualgrowth.
Thethirdscenarioaddstothechangesintheresourceefficiencyscenariobyalsoinvokingstructuralchange.Thissysteminnovationscenarioincorporateschangestoconsumptionandlifestylehabits,urbanform,transportationmodes,energyproductionandeconomicstructure.Theseincludefoodconsumptionshifts/reversiontolowermeatdiets,andtotalfoodintakeratesthatarelowerthantheexcessivelevelsofaffluentdevelopedcountries.Thegrowthinpercapitaconsumptionofmaterialgoodsisalsocurbed.Urbanformisassumedtochangetowardgreaterdensityhousinginnewdevelopments.Wherepossible,allowanceismadeforlocalfoodproduction,resultingindecreasedfreight.Passengertransportshifts/revertsfromgrowingdependenceonthecar,towardbicycleandpublictransit.Electricitygenerationcomesincreasinglyfromrenewablesourcessuchassolarandwind,whicharephasedinasfossilfuelbasedthermalpowerstationsaredecommissionedattheendoftheirlife.
PrimaryenergyconsumptionisshownforBusinessasUsual(BAU)andHighEfficiency(HE)andanintermediatescenarioinFigure2.TheintermediatescenarioistheoutcomeofmovingfromBAUtohighresourceefficiencywithoutmakinganyotherchange.Aconsequenceisahighandgrowinglevelofunemploymentbecauselesslabourisrequiredasthroughputofmaterialsandenergyislowered.Theefficiencyimprovements(50%lessinputsperunitoutputby2040comparedwithrecentvalues)aresufficienttokeepprimaryenergyuselower.(NotethattheBAUscenarioalsoemploysefficiencygains,achieving25%lessinputsperunitoutputby2050).
However,withoutanyotherchangeintheunderlyingeconomicorsocialconditions,veryhighlevelsofunemploymentareanathematostablesocieties.Therefore,inboththeBAUandhighresourceefficiencyscenarios,excessivelevelsofunemploymentwereeliminatedbyincreasingconsumptionandprimaryproductionrates(usingafeedbackprocessdescribedabove).Theconsumptionandproductionratesareadjusteduntilthebiophysicalmodelachievestheunemploymentratesimulatedbythedynamiceconomicmodel.Consequently,cyclicvariationsareevidentintheresourceindicatorspresented,clearlyillustratingthelinkagebetweentheeconomicandbiophysicalmodels.
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Figure2.PrimaryenergyconsumptionfortheAsiaPacificregion,fortwoscenarios(andanintermediateone).Resultshavebeenaggregatedovercountries,activitiesandfueltypes.
Besidethecyclicvariations,substantialincreaseinthroughputofmaterialsandenergyoccurs,evenwhenhighresourceefficiencyisemployed.Primaryenergyconsumptiondoublesoverthescenarioperiod.Thefactthatstronggrowthinresourceuseandemissionsoccursevenwithhighresourceefficiencyfollowsfromthereboundeffectcausedbyeconomicgrowthrequiredtokeepunemploymentlow.
ThecorrespondingGHGemissions,whichincludetheeffectsoffuelcombustion,areshowninFigure3.Inbothbusinessasusualandhighefficiencyscenariostherearesubstantialincreasesinemissions,thoughthelatterscenarioachievessomestabilisationatcontemporarylevelsforabouttwodecadesbeforegrowthintheeconomicactivity(andpopulation)drivesemissionshigher.Asaresult,emissionsinbothscenariosaresubstantiallyhigherthanlevelssuggestedtoavoiddangerousclimatechange.
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Figure3.GreenhousegasemissionsfortheAsiaPacificregion,fortwoscenarios.
Thecorrespondingscenariotrendsforindividualnationsaresomewhatdifferent,asshownforChina(generalincreaseforsomeyears,followedbyadecreaseformorethanadecade,thenasustainedincrease)Figure4.Additionally,asubstantiallydifferentalternativeispresentedintheSystemInnovationscenario.Incontrastwiththeotherscenarios,substantialemissionreductionsdooccurintheSystemInnovationscenario.Butevensosuggestedtargetsof6090%reductionrelativeto1990levelsarenotachieved.Asdescribedabove,thisscenarionotonlyemployshighresourceefficiencybutcombinesthiswithstructuralchangessuchasshiftsinmodesoftransport.Additionally,theSystemInnovationscenarioalsoseekstoavoidthereboundaffectbynotemployingdisplacedlabourintraditionaljobs.Theimportantsocialquestionconcerningtheroleoroccupationofthepopulationnototherwiseemployedisnotexploredinthisanalysis.Thereareseveraldifferentwaysthatloweremploymentmightbeabsorbedwithinsociety,suchasgeneralreductioninworkinghours.Thescaleofthechangeisillustratedinthebiophysicalmodelbytheabouta50%decreaseinlabourparticipationratesbymidcenturyfromcurrentlevels,inordertoeliminatetheexcessunemploymentlevel.
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Figure4.GreenhousegasemissionsforChina,forthreescenarios.
Inseparate,earliermodelling,thedematerialisationpotentialoftheAustralianeconomy(SchandlandTurner,2009,HatfieldDoddsetal.,2008)wassimulatedusingtheAustralianStocksandFlowsFramework.Inthis,theASFFwasusedtomodellargescalechangestomaterialandemissionintensivesectors,includingconstructionandhousing,electricitygeneration,andtransportandmobility.Averageenergyuseintensityofallhousingwashalved(assumingretrofitandadoptionofsimplesolarpassivetechnology),newdwellingswereoflighterconstructionandthetrendsforincreasingfloorareareversed;electricitygenerationwastransformedby2050toamixofwind,solarandgasasagingcoalbasedpowerplantsweredecommissioned;andcommutingbycarwasreducedfrom85%to60%,withcommutingdistancesreduced30%toreflectimprovedurbandesign,andmodalshareoflongdistancetravelswitchedfromairtobus.
Theseandotherchangesmanagedtostabiliseaggregateenergyconsumptionandgreenhousegasemissionsforabouttwodecades(seeFigure5).Subsequentlythough,overalleconomicgrowthoffsettheenvironmentalgainsandledtoemissionshigherthancontemporarylevels,albeitsome30%lowerthanifnotransformationshadbeenattempted.TheAustraliandematerialisationscenarioandthesysteminnovationscenariofortheAsiaPacificsharedasimilarmechanismfordealingwithgrowingunemploymentthatresultsfromongoingefficiencygains,wherebydisplacedlabourwasassumedtobeengagedinserviceactivitiesthatdonotresultinphysicalactivityintheeconomy.
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Figure5.Comparisonofgreenhousegasemissions(fromfuelcombustion)forAustraliaunderBAUandDematerialisationscenarios.Emissionsareindexed(100at2010).
Inathirdstudy,thepotentialforreducingGHGemissionswasalsoexaminedfortheelectricitygenerationsectorintheStateofVictoria(WestandTurner,2010).Thisidentifiedtheimportanceofconsideringthetimingorrateatwhichchangemayberequired,particularlywhenassociatedwithlonglivedinfrastructure.Analysisoftheturnoverofpowerplantunderdifferentelectricityconsumptiongrowthratesindicatesthatplantintroducedafter20112018mustbecapableofnearzeroGHGemissionsin2050ifproposedreductiontargets(intherange6090%of1990levels)aretobeachieved.Itisnecessarytohaveinplaceintheneartermplanttechnologythatispreparedforcarboncapture,eventhoughitmaynotbeemployedinitially,becauseasignificantfractionofoldplantmaybeoperatingin2050.
Systemsimulationsoftransportfueltransitions
FromtheAsiaPacificsimulationsandscenariosdescribedabove,dependencyonoilcanalsobeillustrated.Figure6showsthestronggrowthinChineseoilconsumptionthatcouldbeexpectedunderBAU.Rapidlyimplementingfuelconsumptionefficiencycouldstabiliseconsumptionforabouttwodecades.However,onlysysteminnovationresultsinlowerratesofoilconsumption.Whetherthisissufficienttoavoidtensionswithpotentialratesofdeclineinsupply(assumingearlierrealisationofpeakoil)hasnotbeeninvestigated.
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Figure6.TotalconsumptionofoilinChina,forthreescenarios.
ThesituationforAustraliawasexaminedseparatelyusingtheASFFandspecificscenariosettingsdevelopedforreviewoftransportfueloptions.Thebackgroundscenarioincorporateskeypopulationandeconomicconditions;insummary:36millionin2050;5%unemployment;andnetforeigndebt:GDPratioof~52%.Averagefuelconsumptionefficiencyoftheprivatevehiclefleetisassumedtoincreaseoveracoupleofdecadestoequalgoodhybridperformance.However,sinceoverallpercapitaconsumptionratesgrowinordertomaintainunemploymentatasteadylevel,carownershipandtraveldistancesincrease.
Thisresultsinincreasingtotalrequiredoilvolume(fordomesticconsumptionandexport)asshowninFigure7.Thegapbetweendomesticproductionandthisdemandgrowsrapidlyoverthecoming12decades.ProductionistakenfromGeoscienceAustraliaforecasts(at50%probability).Consequently,Australiawouldsoonbe100%reliantonimportedoil,assumingitisavailableateconomicallyfeasiblepricesontheinternationalmarket.Thisisnotnecessarilythecase,asrecenteconomicmodellinghasindicated(Graham,2008,Grahametal.,2008).Theeconomicmodellingincorporatedsomeelementsofbiophysicalassessment,suchaslandusechangeforbiofuels,butnototheraspectse.g.,waterresourceimplicationsofthechangedlanduses,orconstraintsintheultimategasresource.
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Figure7.ComparisonbetweenAustraliandomesticproductionofoil(andcondensate),andthetotalofdomesticconsumptionandexport,forabusinessasusualtypescenario.Thegapbetweenthetwocurvesisimpliedimportofoil.
Thereforethereisanimportantroleforsubsequentscenarioanalysistoinvestigatethepotentialfortransitiontootherfuelswithinthesystemwidebiophysicalcapabilityoftheeconomy.Fromthereviewaboveofpotentialtransportalternatives,asuitableoptionforearlysubstitutionistheuseofnaturalgas.ThishasbeenpartiallysimulatedintheASFF,andshowsthatAustraliandomestictransportrequirementscouldbemetforseveraldecadesfromdomesticproductionofnaturalgas(Figure8).Thesimulationincludestherecent34foldincreaseineconomicallydemonstratedresourcesofgas(CuevasCubriaetal.,2010).Exportsareassumedtoincreaseinproportionwiththedomesticdemandforgas.
Productionofdomesticgascanmeettheexportanddomesticconsumptionwithstrongincreasesinvolume,untilabout2040.Atthistime,arapidfallinproductionoccurs.Therearelikelytobeuncertaintiesaroundthistimingpotentialfurtherdiscoveriescouldextendthepeakyear,althoughextractionratesmayslowsomewhatasthefieldsdeplete(thisislessprevalentingasresources,thaninoilfields)andadvancethepeakyear.Nevertheless,continualgrowthindemandwouldreducetherangeinwhichpeakingoccurs.Consequently,inAustraliadomesticgascouldplayaroleasatransitionfuelforsomethreedecades,beforeanothertransportfuelsystemisrequired(orfuelsimported).Theoiltogassimulationhasnotinvestigatedthedetailsofinfrastructureturnoverrequired,suchasnewrefuellingoutlets,pipelinesandcompressionfacilities.
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Figure8.ComparisonofAustraliandomesticproductionofandexportofgasresources,inascenariothatassumesatransitionfromoiltogasastransportfuel.Domesticconsumptionisthe
gapbetweenthetwocurves.
CurrentresearchusingtheASFFtoinvestigatefoodsupplysecurityisexaminingtheimpactofbiofuelproductioninAustralia.Simulationstodateindicatethatfirstgenerationbiofueloptions(e.g.,convertingcropssuchaswheatandcanolatoethanolandbiodiesel(Stucley,2010))couldsubstituteforabout10%offuturedomesticoilrequirements(whichiscomparablewithotherestimates(Deborah,2007)),andinvertAustraliastradepositiontothatofnetimporterbefore2040.
Otherstudies
Inrecentyearstherehavebeenincreasingnumbersofstudiesintonationalandglobalenergysystems,examiningthepotentialtoreducedGHGemissionsandachieveenergysecurity.AsummaryofthesestudiesisgiveninTable3.Thoughitisbeyondthescopeofthispapertocomprehensivelyreviewthese,abriefcomparisonwiththeanalysispresentedabovefollows.
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Table3.CharacteristicsofrecentstudiesintopotentialreductionsofGHGemissionsandachievingtransportfuelsecurity.
Proposal Approach Technologies/sectorsconsidered
Potentiallimitations
Reference
ZeroCarbonAustralia2020StationaryEnergyPlan
Detailedsupplydemandgridmodelling;Separateadhocanalysis
Wind;SolarThermal;Biomass;Electrifiedtransportation
Employmentofnonelectricitysectorseffectivelyheldconstant
(anon,2010b)(BeyondZeroEmissions)
ZeroCarbonBritain2030
Separatetechnologyassessments?
tobereviewed Noreboundeffectconsidered
(KempandWexler,2010)
IEAEnergyTechnologyPerspective
Separatetechnologyassessments?;Scenarios
Fossilfuels;Nuclear;Renewables;Transmission;Buildings;Transport;Efficiency;CCS
tobereviewed (Taylor,2010)
LowCarbonGrowthPlanforAustralia
Economicscostbenefit(costcurves)
Fossilfuels;Renewables;Buildings;Transport;Efficiency;CCS;Agriculture;Forestry
Nophysicalassessmentoftechnologicaloptions;Noreboundeffectconsidered
(anon,2010a)(ClimateWorks)
TheEconomicsofClimateChangeTheSternReview
EconomicsIntegratedAssessmentModelling;Scenarios
tobereviewed AssumesahigherrateofGHGemissionsin2050;Nophysicalassessmentoftechnologicaloptions;
(Stern,2006)
TheGarnautClimateChangeReview
Economicmodelling tobereviewed tobereviewed (Garnaut,2008)
Fuelsfocus ARoadmapforAlternativeFuelsinAustralia
Separatebiophysicalanalysis
Efficiency;fossilfuels;biofuels;electrical;fuelcells
Nophysicalassessmentoftechnologicaloptions;Noreboundeffectconsidered
(Diesendorfetal.,2008)
PowerfulChoicesTransitiontoabiofueleconomyinAustralia
Embeddedenergyanalysis,withmacroeconomicfactorsincluded;Scenarios
Biofuels Controlsreboundeffectusingafuturesfund;Nophysicalassessmentoftechnologicaloptionsbeyondenergyimplications
(Foran,2009)
FuelforThoughtTheroleoftransportfuels:challengesandopportunities
Paritalequilibriumeconomicmodelling,withsectoralbiophysicalmodelling
Fossilfuels;Electricity;Biofuels
Limitedphysicalassessmentoftechnologicaloptions;Noreboundeffectconsidered?
(Graham,2008,Grahametal.,2008)
Fromthereviewofotherstudiesandproposals,itappearsthatthetechnicallikelihoodforimplementingalternativeenergyoptionsisnotakeyissue.TheseanalysesfindthatitispossibletoachievelargereductionsinGHGemissionsortoestablishalternativetransportfuelsystems.Theoptionsexploredaregenerallydeemedtechnicallyfeasible,andoftenillustratedbygraphsshowingparallel
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wedgesoftechnologicalchangeoverthecominghalfcenturyenablingthedesiredchange.
However,ingeneralthereareseveralkeyaspectsthatarenotwelladdressedorrecognisedinthesestudies,including:
rateofchangeo aboutthesameaspastgrowthrates,butintheoppositedirection;o manysimultaneouschangesrequired;o strandedassetsarelikely;
physicalimplicationso crosssectorimpactspotentiallyincreaseenvironmentalpressures;o impactoflowernetenergygains;
socioeconomicconditionso employmentandreboundignored;o financialinvestmentandservicingdebt;o institutionalarrangementsandgovernance.
Whilethechangesproposedappearfeasiblewithinthecontextofthetechnologiesandsectorsanalsysed,thesizeorrateofchangeisdramaticallydifferenttowhathasbeenexperiencedinthepast.Insomecases,thisislikelytorequiretheearlyretirementofpowerplantandotherinfrastructure,despitetheeconomicincentiveofownerstoobtainrevenuesforlonger.Infrastructureinertiaiscompoundedbythegeneralproposalfromthesestudiesformultiplenewtechnologiestobeimplementedvirtuallysimultaneously,insomecontrastwithpreviousexperienceandthegeneralobjectiveofseekingsimplicityandmarketdominance.Otherelementsoftechnologicaloptimismareevidentinestimatesofthereadinessofnewtechnologiestobedeployed.Incontrast,evenwithmaturetechnologies,some1020yearsarelikelytoberequiredtoenabledevelopmentofinfrastructureandsystems.Thisallsuggestsaradicaltransformationisneededinthewayeconomiesoperateandsocietyisengaged,andonascalethatwouldarguablymatchaworldwarfooting.
Sincethefocusofthesestudieshasbeenonenergy,otherenvironmentalandresourceimplicationstendtobeneglected.Whileitisnotuncommontoseelandarearecognised,otherresourcessuchaswater,fertilisersandscarceminerals,foodcompetition,forestryandbiodiversityarenotsystematicallyconsideredintheseotherstudies.Additionally,afullsystemassessmentwouldincorporatenetenergyintheanalysis,toallowforthehigheruseofenergythatisrequiredtoproducealternativeformsofenergy(bothfortransportandelectricity)(Heinberg,2009).Netenergyforoilwasoriginallyveryhighwhenoilwasfirstextracted,buthasdroppedasfieldshavebeendepletedormoredifficultoilaccessed.Mostotherenergysourceshaveevenlowernetenergy,andthereareconjecturesthatmoderneconomiesarepredicatedonthefreeenergygiftofoilandcoal.Inparticular,itisnotclearifthesestudieshaveconsideredtheoverallenergythatisrequiredtoputthenewtechnologiesinplace.Further,ifenergyandoilalternativesaretobeimplementedthenthesechangesmustoccurbeforethesupplyofoilisseriouslyconstrained,otherwisetheremaynotbethetransportservices(andthewiderangeofeconomicfunctions)thatareneededtofacilitatethechange.
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Anothercommonaspectmissingfromotherstudiesordealtwithpoorlyarethesocioeconomicconditionstypicallyrequiredinmoderneconomies.Importantly,employmentandthereboundeffectdonotfigurehighly,ifatall.Typically,aslabourisdisplacedbytechnologicalprogress,higherconsumptionandeconomicgrowthprovidesanopportunitytoreemploythedisplacedlabour.Thisresultsinfurtherresourceuseandemissions,thatoffset(orevensurpass)theanticipatedgainsfromthetechnologicalprogress.
Whileeconomicanalysestypicallyindicatethelevelofinvestmentrequiredintheproposalsandscenariosputforward,theissueofbeingabletoraisethefinancialinvestmentrequiredisnotraised(theIEAsETPisanotableexception).Withinvestmentequivalenttotrillionsofdollars,andtheeffectsoftheglobalfinancialcrisisstillunresolved,thereisconcernthatthelarge,numerousandchallengingprojectswillnotbeabletofindsufficientfinancialsupport.
Conclusions ThispaperhasfocusedontransportfuelsecurityandimplicationsofGHGemissionreductionsastwokeyshockspotentiallyfacingnationalandglobalenergysystems.Aplethoraofalternativetechnologyoptionsareoftenputforwardfordealingwithoravertingtheseshocks.Systemwidebiophysicalanalysisusingstocksandflowsframeworksimulationssuggeststhattechnologicalalternativesaremorelimitedinsystemicsensethangenerallyanticipated.Thisappearstocontrastsomewhatwitharangeofotherstudies,whichgenerallyproposeamultitudeoftechnologicalactions.Thelikelihoodofenergyshocksbeingavertedbythesetechnologicalactionsmustincorporatearealisticassessmentofthemanyfactorsthatareinvolved,notleast:
thesubstantialrateofchangeandmultiplicityofactionsrequired,comparedwithinertiaassociatedwithinfrastructureandinstitutions;
thetransferofenvironmentalimpactsandotherresourceconstraintsduetocrosssectoraldependencies;
theimpostofincreasingenergyinputsunderlyingeachunitofenergydelivered;
theunemploymentimplicationsofmovingtoeconomicsystemswithdrasticallyreducedthroughputofcommodities;and
thesubstantialfinancialinvestmentthatwouldberequiredineconomiesalreadyladenwithdebt.
Systembasedanalysisundertakentodatewiththesefactorsincorporatedpointstowardtheunlikelyoutcomethatenergyshockswillbeaverted.
Acknowledgements Theauthorwouldliketoacknowledgetheresearchofcolleaguesuntakeninprojectsthatthispaperdrawson.Inparticular,A/ProfSteveKeenoftheUniversityofWesternSydney(forhisMCTmodelling),andDrsFranziPoldyandHeinzSchandl(APSFFdatacalibrationandprojectmanagement)arethanked.ThisworkwassupportedbyCSIROsClimateAdaptationFlagship,andtheUNEnvironmentProgram.
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Energy Shocks and Emerging Alternative Energy TechnologiesSino-Australian Joint Research Forum, 21-23 July 2010Collaboration and Governance in the Asia PacificAbstractIntroductionPotential Energy ShocksTransport fuelGreenhouse gas emissions
Alternative Energy OptionsOverview of potential transport fuel technologiesOverview of technologies for GHG reduction in electricity generation and use
System Modelling of OptionsThe Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF)The Asia-Pacific Stocks and Flows Framework (APSFF)Interactions and feedbacks between the physical and economic systems
Scenario Simulations of Options and AssumptionsSystem simulations of energy and GHG emissionsSystem simulations of transport fuel transitionsOther studies
ConclusionsAcknowledgementsReferences