Environmental Control and Economic Development

Abdelhameed M El-Shaarawi National Water Research Institute

and McMaster UniversityBurlington, Ontario, Canada L7R

4A6Abdel.El-Shaarawi@ec.gc.ca

1. What is an environmental problem? Evolving issues Recognition, understanding, judging, action Measurements, mathematics and statistics If mathematics is the language of nature then statistics is its

dialects

2. Classification of environmental problems Extent: Global, regional, local; duration Type: Natural or anthropogenic Effects: Lethal or chronic, significant or insignificant, social,

political, ecological risks

3. Some Typical Examples Water Pollution Risks

4. Needs Collaboration among stakeholders Ecological and environmental indicators Improved predictive, tools for risk analysis

Goals

Environment

Human

Economy

Land, Water, Air

Natural Resources

Labor Force

Capital

Innovation

Production Consummation

Waste Pollution

EnvironmentalQuality

Quality of Human Life

Balance between Growth and Environmental HealthBalance between the Present and the Future

Fish biomass in 1900

(t/km2)

Christensen et al. (Fish & Fisheries, 2003).

And in 2000….

Christensen et al. (Fish & Fisheries, 2003).

U.S. Bureau of the census, Watson and Pauly (2002)

Living resources: food security

Sources of Pollution

atmosphericdepos ition

upw ellingreturn

land-baseddischarge

The Hunt for Oil in Canada

Canada with and Without the Oil Sand Production

The Spatial Extent

The Production Process

Environmental Concerns

INTERPRETATIONOF RISK TERMS Risk: undesirable outcomes which

differ from the beneficial ones Analysis in isolation is difficult due to

inextricable association with the beneficial ones.

They are not mutually exclusive! Decision-making is based on the level of

disbenefits and risk we may choose to tolerate, compared to the benefits of the outcomes.

PRINCIPAL CONCEPT OF RISK

encompasses a number of concepts and methods directed towards gaining qualitative and quantitative understanding of risks.

focuses on the knowledge about the nature and burden of risks involved in an activity and placing it in some framework of relationships to express its significance.

concerns with arrangements to deal with the assessed burden of risk by

- eliminating causes of risk where practicable;

- reducing the probability of occurrences and the magnitude of consequences;

- seeking acceptable compensations and redistributions in relation to the residual risk (i.e., Don’t keep all the eggs in one basket!).

RISK ASSESSMENT

RISK MANAGEMENT

Interactive and Complementary

Components of Risk Communication

Setting Regulations

Risk & Benefit (Health & Economy)

Objectives of Environmental Effects Monitoring Program:

1. Does effluent cause an effect in the environment?

2. Is effect persistent over time?

3. Does effect warrant correction?

4. What are the causative stressors?

5. From 1992, all new effluent regulations require sites to do EEM.

6. Pulp and Paper Pilot program

Example: Pulp and Paper Industry “Environmental Effects Monitoring”

Field and Experimental Assessment of Risk

Environmental Effects Monitoring: Canadian Pulp and Paper Industry

Structure Data and Objective

survivalgrowthalAsurvivalgrowthLarvalonreproductiSurvival

SelanastumnowFatheaddubiaiaCeriodaphn

MillMillMillMill

Tests

IndustryPaperandPulp

Cycles

Ii

Ii

lg

.3min.2.1

321

321

21

21

Example of data (daphnia survival and reproduction)

No. of neonates produced per replicates and total female adult mortality

100000000000100

9000101000050

12642222510

525

210

13

610

13

10

611

10

012.5

016

12

11

15

915

12

14

10

10

6.25

023

14

16

22

10

22

11

13

15

28

3.13

1020

19

16

13

16

17

14

14

28

1.56

045

44

40

41

38

46

49

35

39

50

0

Mortality

10

987654321%Effluent

Example of reproduction data (one cycle)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dilut ion Factor

01

02

03

04

05

0

Co

un

ts

Exp1Exp2Exp3All