Estimating AccuratelyWhy is this so hard? (!?!)

The Simple Facts

Estimating tasks by time is RISKY...

No way to accurately predict the future, even immediately.

No GUARANTEE that even closely similar tasks will take the same time.

No two workers ALWAYS take the same amount of time to complete a task.

The Simple Facts

Estimating tasks by time is HARD...

Require IDEAL units of time, which are necessarily inaccurate simplifications.

Productivity per hour is INCONSISTENT and very hard to control.

Accuracy requires intimate knowledge of all components involved.

The Simple Facts

Estimating tasks by time is CRIPPLING...

Comparing TIME SPENT between workers fails to incorporate QUALITY.

Clients typically latch onto the SMALLEST number they (selectively) hear.

Documenting time ACCURATELY is tedious, error-prone, and potentially demoralizing.

In Conclusion...Estimating tasks solely by time is DUMB.

Alternatives, Anyone?

Yet Another Measure

Disconnect your work from hours.

Estimate with an arbitrary measure.

Points are a holistic evaluation of COMPLEXITY, DIFFICULTY, and RISK.

Complexity is...

The number of components:

Sundial VS Clockwork Timepiece

Automobile VS Skateboard

Multiple systems cooperating increases complexity, regardless of operation.

Difficulty is...

The measure of challenge or skill:

Motorcycle VS Bicycle Mechanic

Jellied Tart VS Mac & Cheese

Task requiring specialized skills, special tools, or intimate knowledge of the system are more difficult.

Risk is...

A subjective rating of what might go wrong:

Transporting an egg VS a brick

Experimental framework VS Wordpress

Unfamiliarity, delicacy, and unpredictability all increase the risk of a task.

This is different...

Estimation by time implies (false) CONFIDENCE, (in)ACCURACY, and (unverifiable) QUANTITATIVE EVIDENCE.

Estimation by points embraces (quantifiable) COMPLEXITY, (known) DIFFICULTY, and (unavoidable) RISK

How does that work?Planning Poker!

How does that work?Each team member selects a private estimate based upon complexity, difficulty, and risk...

Everyone reveals their estimate at once and debates the differences...

Repeat until everyone agrees!

Who is that guy?

linkedin.com/in/althex

twitter.com/al_the_x

github.com/al-the-x

slideshare.net/al_the_x