Estimating Activity Estimating Activity DurationsDurations

Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.

Course on Project Management

PurposePurpose

Accuracy mattersAccuracy matters

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Implicit Assumptions Implicit Assumptions RevealedRevealed

More people, less timeMore people, less time

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Source of DataSource of Data

Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studiesTime studies Statistical analysisStatistical analysis

Course on Project Management

Source of DataSource of Data

Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studiesTime studies Statistical analysisStatistical analysis

Course on Project Management

Source of DataSource of Data

Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studiesTime studies

Stop motion studiesStop motion studies DiaryDiary

Statistical analysisStatistical analysis

Course on Project Management

Source of DataSource of Data

Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studiesTime studies Statistical analysisStatistical analysis

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Assessing Experts OpinionsAssessing Experts Opinions

AssumptionsAssumptions Estimate, talk and estimateEstimate, talk and estimate DelphiDelphi

Course on Project Management

Assessing Experts OpinionsAssessing Experts Opinions

AssumptionsAssumptions Estimate, talk and estimateEstimate, talk and estimate DelphiDelphi

Course on Project Management

Assessing Experts OpinionsAssessing Experts Opinions

AssumptionsAssumptions Estimate, talk and estimateEstimate, talk and estimate DelphiDelphi

Course on Project Management

Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk Estimate Estimate

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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate Thanks for

agreeing to help us…please write

down …

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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate

Responses from different expert are collected and displayed on the

flip chart without attribution

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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate This is great.

Lets discuss why it could take a

long time…

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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate

Well it depends on the

experience of the person

configuring the system

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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate

And it also depends on how cooperative the clinicians are.

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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate

Discussion of Assumptions

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Example of Estimate Talk Example of Estimate Talk EstimateEstimate You have said …

please re-estimate…

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PERTPERT

OptimisticOptimistic Realistic Realistic PessimisticPessimistic

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PERTPERT

OptimisticOptimistic Realistic Realistic PessimisticPessimistic

6

estimate Optimisticestimate Realistic4estimate cPessimistiduration Expected

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PERT DialoguePERT Dialogue

How long do you think it would

take to send 100 surveys out?

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PERT DialoguePERT Dialogue

It all depends. I have seen people do it in 6 hours and I have seen others do it in 1 hour.

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PERT DialoguePERT Dialogue

But given what I know about your operations

I think it will take 2 hours.

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PERT DialoguePERT Dialogue

5.26

15

6

1246duration Expected

Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson

Estimate-Talk-Estimate and PERT Estimate-Talk-Estimate and PERT method can increase accuracy of method can increase accuracy of estimate of duration of activities estimate of duration of activities