Eugenijus Ušpuras

Lithuanian Energy Institute

Lithuanian Research Lithuanian Research Activities in Energy Activities in Energy

SecuritySecurity

Content

1. Energy security (research) institutions

2. Energy security research in Lithuania

3. Security of Energy Supply

4. Security of Energy Infrastructures

Energy security (research) institutions

Lithuanian Energy Institute (established in 1956)

Energy Security Research Centre – founded by Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) and Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) in 2008

NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, established on 10 July 2012 (previously – Energy Security Center under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania)

Other institutions

Energy security research in Lithuania (1)

Ignalina NPP. Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI)

(Risk analysis, Accidents analysis);

Lithuanian Energy Strategy (1999; 2002; 2005: 2007);

Special Studies (e.g. Ignalina NPP decommissioning impact to Lithuanian economic security after 2010).

Energy security research in Lithuania (2)

State funded research project Development of methodologies of Security and Reliability Assessment of Energy Supply to Lithuania (2006-2008; 2009-2011).

Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Development of Methodology for Energy Security Analysis and Integrated Security Level Assessment (2010 – 2011).

Energy security research in Lithuania (3)

Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Development of Methodology for Optimal Integration of Future Technologies into Energy Sector (2011-2012).

Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Investigation of Lithuanian energy security and energy security level assessment (2012-2014).

Energy security research in Lithuania (4)

7FP project Security of Energy Considering Its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications (SECURE) (2008-2010). The project developed appropriate tools for evaluating the vulnerability of the EU to the different energy supply risks, and for promoting the optimization of EU energy insecurity mitigation strategies, including investment, demand side management and dialogue with producing countries.

SECURE partners from France, Italy, Denmark, Lithuania (LEI), JRC, Germany, Switzerland, Russian Federation, UK, Belgium, Austria.

Energy security research in Lithuania (5)

Leonardo da Vinci programme project European energy supply security management coordinators UNDER way towards STANDard indicators for continuous vocational education and training (UNDERSTAND) (2006-2008).

UNDERSTAND is a pilot training project which is intended for the emergency planners and emergency operators of the European energy supply, transmission system operators (TSOs) in particular.

UNDERSTAND partners from Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Lithuania (LEI), UK, Italy, Slovak Republic

Energy security research we could divide into two branches:

Security of Energy Supply

Security of Energy Infrastructures

Security of Energy Supply

Assessment of Security of Energy Supply

Different approaches are used for assessing security of energy supply in Lithuanian Energy Institute:

•economical modelling (MESSAGE model), •disturbances impact to the energy system assessment employing probabilistic and deterministic models•development of security indicators system for the assessment of energy security level.

Lithuanian electricity system model

Lithuanian electricity system

Lithuanian district heating system

Poland, (ENTSO-E)

Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Russia

Sweden(Nordpool)

Belarus,Russia(IPS/UPS)

Kaliningrad(IPS/UPS)

Diagram of renewable energy sources flow

Economical modellingMESSAGE MODEL• model is designed for planning energy sector in long perspective, where could be predictable technological process;• optimization function is minimization of costs of energy system during the considered period.•Using model it is possible to assess and compare different energy development strategies, alternatives of using different energy resources or new energy technologies. •Applying sensitivity analysis it is possible to investigate the influence of particular indicators to functioning of energy system. Results: • costs of energy production, then exits limitations of: primary energy resources, environment, policy.

Scheme of Energy security assessment methodology

Analysis of threats of energy system

Investigation of disturbances development

Disturbed energy system modelling by

Probabilistic models

Disturbed energy system modelling by

Economic models

Energy security indicators

Technical, economic and sociopolitical information

Analysis of energy security level

Conclusions

Results of energy security analysis

Recommendations

Probabilistic Energy Security Analysis

Threats

Natural

Economical

Sociopolitical

Terrorism

Barriers

Auxiliary systems

Safety systems

Physical protection

Diversification

Long term agreements

Diplomacy

Generators,power

distributionand

power supply

networks, storages, suppliers, consumers.

Energysystem

War conflicts

Consequences mitigation

Consequences

Emergency plans

Warning system

Evacuation

Deactivation

First-aid

Human lifes

Damages of

infrastructure

Economicallosses

Sociopolitical

disturbances

Assessment of Energy Security Level Steps:

• Description of energy security indicators;• Grouping of indicators to different blocks; • Estimation of critical and precritical values of security

indicators;• Assessment of weights for indicators and blocks of indicators; • Performance of sensitivity analysis of indicators in critical

situations; • Setting of indicators correlations matrix;• Setting of functional systems and equations, which consists

parameters energy security of supply;• Calculation of energy security level.

Creation of a Security of Supply Index

Export share of production

External Suppliers

Border crossings

Reserves / consumption

Country risk to border

Replaceable share of gas

Production share of consumption

LNG terminals

National storages

Security of Supply

Import pipelines

Offshore pipelines risk

• Index allows for country specific characteristics • Allows for assessment of SoS impact of new investments and policies • Allows for analysis of scenarios

SECURE - NATURAL GAS STAKEHOLDER MEETING

Ramboll Oil & Gasas.com Stefan Schaar Kruse Senior Economist

Security of Supply in the EU – Risk and Impact

Low impact –Low SoS High impact –Low SoS

Low impact –High SoS High impact –High SoS

Low SoS

High SoS

• Swiden • Finland

Low impact High Impact

Security of energy supply is assessed by analysing various energy system development scenarios

For example, just revising the last energy strategy more than 70 different development scenarios were analysed

All scenarios energy production price with various restrictions taking into account energy security were taken into account

Analysed energy system development scenarios

Analysed scenarios were grouped in the following group:

Group of scenarios with various restrictions to the electricity import

Flexible non-nuclear scenarios without nuclear power plant

Scenarios with new nuclear power plant

Energy security level of analysed scenarios

Economic analysis showed that scenarios with nuclear energy and restricted electricity import has slightly higher energy price

Assessing energy security as price increase and system resistance to possible perturbations, we can state that scenarios nuclear energy has higher energy security level

Security of Energy Infrastructures

Two approaches are used:

Deterministic

Probabilistic

The solution of the infrastructure security problem is consisting of two parts:

1. Identification of the critical elements of the infrastructure, the development of security plans.

2. The analysis and assessment of infrastructure criticality.

Scheme of energy infrastructure

Scheme of energy infrastructure (Lithuanian case)

Probabilistic Assessment of Critical Infrastructures

Reliability and Security Assessment of Lithuanian Power Transmission System.

Risk analysis of petroltransportation by trucks through Lithuanian roads

Probabilistic Assessment of Kaunas Hydropower System

Kaunas hydropower plant (KHP)

Kruonis hydro pump storage power plant (KHSP)

KHP dam

Flooding zone

Analysis of Aircraft Crash

Structural response, Global level.

Structural response, Semi-global level.

Structural response, Local level.

Fire analysis.

Global Analysis of Aircraft Crash

Concluding remarks In Lithuania we have developed and approved

methodology for energy security analysis Energy security assessment is significant only

when it is compared with other countries or regions. For that reason unified understanding of energy security and usage of the common methodology should be implemented

Methodologies developed in Lithuania could be a good starting point at least in Baltic States to introduce unified energy security assessment concept. That would enable to assess separate projects and entire situation.

Concluding remarks

Despite the fact that research in the field of energy security is performed in Lithuania, further collaboration and integration of efforts in this field should be accomplished in Baltic Sea region and entire Europe.

Thank you for your attention

Eugenijus Ušpurasuspuras@mail.lei.lt