EuropeanSpaceWeatherInitiatives

IanMcCreaSTFCRutherfordAppletonLaboratory

EISCAT_3DKick-OffMeeting,Tromso,06-08/09/2017

Contextofthistalk• ThistalkpartlyrepeatsapresentationgivenbymeattheEUH2020Stakeholders

eventinBrusselslastyear

• TheseareperiodicmeetingswhichaimtosolicitideasaboutmaterialtobecoveredbytheongoingEUworkprogrammein“spacescienceandspaceenvironment”.

• Headingincludesexploitationofscientificspacedataandinstrumentation,andalsospaceenvironmentscience(coveringspaceweatherandspacedebris)

• Mybriefwastocontributetothesecondofthese

• Lookingforareasnotcoveredbyotherorganisations(e.g.ESA)inimplementingaEuropeanstrategy

• NotethattherewasasignificantparticipationinthisactivitybyESA,incontrasttosomesimilareventsinthepast.

DataExploitationSegmentThisactivityaimsto:

• Supporttheexploitationofscientificspacedatadeliveredbyspacescienceandspaceexplorationmissions:– Widevarietyoffieldsidentifiedbystakeholders:astronomyandastrophysics,

exo-planets,solarsystemexploration,cometsandasteroidsmicrogravity,humanspaceflightandroboticexploration

• Fostersynergiesbetweenspace-basedandground-basedobservations

• Developmentofmissionconceptsandscientificintrumentation– Conceptsforfuturescientificandexplorationmissions– Earlystagesofscientificinstrumentationdevelopment– Innovativeinstrumentation/sensordesignanddevelopmentinvolvingmulti-

disciplinaryscientific,engineeringandindustrialteams

DataExploitation:DiscussionIdeasThequestionsaskedtothepanelgivesomeinsightintowhattheCommissionisthinking:

• DoesthescientificuseofspacedatarepresentafundinggapinEurope,ornot?Howtohandleoversubscription?Shouldtopicsbenarrowedtofocusonspecificfields?Whichones?

• Howimportantissupporttocross-bordernetworkingofscientificteamstoincreasescientificproductivityandleadtobreakthroughandinnovation?

• Internationalcooperationwithnon-EUteamsisparticularlyimportant,alsointhecontextofthepreviousquestion.Howcanitbefurtherstimulatedandsupported?

HELCATS:Heliospheric Cataloguing,Analysis&TechniquesService(www.helcats-fp7.eu)

• to catalogue both transient (CMEs) & background (SIRs/CIRs) solar wind structures imaged by the STEREO/HI instruments, including estimates of their kinematic properties based on a variety of established modelling techniques and the prototyping of other, more speculative, approaches;

• to verify these kinematic properties, and thereby assess the validity of these techniques, through comparison both with solar source observations and in-situ measurements at multiple points throughout the heliosphere;

• to assess the potential for initialising advanced numerical models based on the derived kinematic properties of the transient & background solar wind structures;

• to assess the complementarity of using radio observations to detect structures and diagnose processes in the heliosphere (in particular Type II radio bursts and interplanetary scintillation) in combination with heliospheric imaging observations

• to catalogue both transient (CMEs) & background (SIRs/CIRs) solar wind structures imaged by the STEREO/HI instruments, including estimates of their kinematic properties based on a variety of established modelling techniques and the prototyping of other, more speculative, approaches;

• to verify these kinematic properties, and thereby assess the validity of these techniques, through comparison both with solar source observations and in-situmeasurements at multiple points throughout the heliosphere;

• to assess the potential for initialising advanced numerical models based on the derived kinematic properties of the transient & background solar wind structures;

• to assess the complementarity of using radio observations to detect structures and diagnose processes in the heliosphere (in particular Type II radio bursts and interplanetary scintillation) in combination with heliospheric imaging observations

HELCATS:Heliospheric Cataloguing,Analysis&TechniquesService(www.helcats-fp7.eu)

SpaceEnvironmentSegment• SpacedebrisandSpaceControl

• Protection/shieldingagainstdebrisimpacts• Solutionsforpost-missiondisposal• Legal/strategicissueslinkedtospacedebrisremoval

• SpaceWeather• Awareness-raisingamongusers

• Spaceinfrastructure• Powergrids,transportnetworks• Criticalinfrastructure(telecom,financialsystems,etc.)

• ContributeenhancedforecastingmodelstothespaceweatherserviceinfrastructuresdevelopedbyESA(sensors– spaceorground,dataprocessing)

• Science• Understandingthephysics(Sun,Sun-Earthsystems)• Modelling

SpaceEnvironment:DiscussionIdeas

1. Canthespacedebrisproblembeaddressedsolelyby"passive"means(shieldingofspacecraftsandpayloads,anti-collisionmanoeuvres,self-deorbiting/movetodisposalorbit)?

– Whichtechnologiesandlegal/societalissuesneedtobeaddressed?

2. Wherearethebottlenecksforachievingbetterforecastingofspaceweather?

– Howshouldtheybeaddressed?

3. Inwhichareaswouldinternationalcooperationwithnon-EUteamsbedesirable?

EUSSTProject:2016/17InvolvingthenationalspaceagenciesofFrance,Germany,Italy,SpainandUK

– IntendingfutureparticipantsincludePoland,Romania,Portugal

1SST:EstablishingtheexistingEuropeanSSTnetwork• Usercoordination• Securityissues• Sensorfunction• Processingfunction• Servicefunction

2SST:ImprovingEuropeanSSTcoordination• Projectmanagement• Governance• Consolidationofsensorfunction• Consolidationofprocessingfunction• Consolidationofservicefunctionandusercoordination

3SST:ExpandingthefutureEuropeanSSTcapability• Futureenvironmentevaluationandarchitecturetrade-off• Studiesofsensorandprocessingcapabilities• Upgradesofsensorsandprocessingcapabilities

HowshouldEUfundingfitin?• ESAdeliversmainlyoperationalactivityinSSTandspaceweather

– Looksforcomplementaryresourceforunderpinningscience– NaturalroleforEUH2020todeliverscienceunderpinningtofocus/improveoperations

• Inourarea(upperatmosphere/spaceweather)keyneedtodrivescienceforpredictionservices:– Especiallytrueforspaceweatherimpactprediction/warning– Alsotosomeextentforspacedebrisandsatelliteorbitprediction

• EuropehassignificantassetsoutsidetheESAremit,whichshouldbeintegratedintoa widerframework– Modelsintheresearchcommunity– Ground-basedobservingsystems(andnon-ESAspace-basedassets)fundednationally– Archivesandinfrastructuresforsharing/combiningdata

• OneroleforH2020couldbetoestablish:– Whichofthesecapabilitiesarethebest/mostrelevant– Howtheyshouldbeused– Howtheycouldbedevelopedtobecomemoresignificant– ThedriverforthesefundingschemesmustbeSCIENCE,notoperations

• WhatshouldbeintheoverallEUframework?– Modelling– Eventprecursors– Definitionofobservation/theoryneeds– Dataassimilation/distribution/useofpastdata– Newinstrumentdevelopment– Interpretationofresultsandconsequentco-ordination

Searchingforeventprecursors• Canwespotpotentialeventsbeforetheyevenstarttodevelop?

– SolarFlares/CMEs• PrecursorsinX-rayflux• WeakflareshavenoCMEs,someCMEsdonothaveflares• Significanceofcoronaldimming/coronalwaves

– Energeticparticleevents• Solarflarerelated• Energisationatshocks(Fermiaccelerationandshockdrift)• Differencesbetweenimpulsiveandgradualevents

– Magnetospheric substorms• Wavelikephenomenainthemagneticfield/aurora(KHinstability)• Particularwavefrequenciesandlocationsofinterest?(e.g.McPherron,1980)• Changesincurrentmorphology

• Dataminingapproach– Startwithknownevents– Workbackwardslookingatprecursorcharacteristics– Definewhatobservationsmightbeneededwhere

• Integrateeffortswithsimilarstudieselsewhere

Validation/improvementofmodels• Somemodelsalreadyperformreasonablywell

– e.g.solarwindpropagationmodels– Theycanbefurtherimproved,however,e.g.byassimilationofdata– Whatistherightkindofdataforeachmodel?– Howmuchdatais“enough”?– Whattypesandpositionsarekeyforobservations?

• Somemodelshaveknownshortcomings,buttheseareinsufficientlycharacterised– e.g.highlatitudeionosphericmodels– Whattypesofdataconstraintwouldmakepredictionsbetter?– Whatistherightchoiceofbasismodel?– Concentrateonafewkeymodels(e.g.solarwind,GPSscintillation,atmosphericdragmodelling)

• Sometimesphysics-basedmodelsaremuchworsethanempiricaltechniques– Wheredoempiricaltechniquesfail?– Aretherecommonfactorswhenthishappens?– Isthereanykindofimprovementthatcanmakethisbetter?

• Predictivecapabilitiescanbelostwhenmodelsarejoinedtogether– Whichexistingmodelscanbeeffectivelyintegrated?– Whichparametersarebest/worstreproduced?– Howcanthisbeimprovedbydataconstraint?

• Collaborationwithsimilarinitiativesworld-wide– Mostnotably:NASA/NSFcoupled modellinginitiativeandworkatCCMC

Howcanourdatahelpus?• Someofourmodelsarepurelyempirical

– Physics-basedmodellingtoocomplicated• e.g.inionosphericscintillation

– Insuchcases,moredataoughttodeliverbetterspecification– Sometimeswelackthedata,however!

• Interactionofphysics-basedmodelswithdata– Ensembleforecasting– Dataassimilationtoconstrainmodels– Thisisbeingdonetosomeextent,e.g.ENLILforheliosphere– Canextendintootherareas,e.g.atmosphericdragmodelsforSST– Verificationofmodelcoupling(helpingtomaketherightjoin)

• Someimportantgeneralprinciples– Maybenotallmodelscanbewell-enoughconstrainedbythisapproach– Whataretherightkindsofdataforconstraint?– (Howmuch)doesitmatterwherethesedatacomefrom?– Howmuchdata(ofeachkind)is“enough”?– Curationofthesedataisvital– HPCcapabilities??

Validatingandsharingdata• Wearearguablynotmakingthebestuseofthedatawehave

– Especiallyintheground-basedsector,whereESAtakesabackseat– Bigsensors,developedwithEUfunds,arenotwellconnectedtowider

strategicpicture(e.g.EISCAT_3D)– Dataneedtobeopenandaccessible!– Smalldistributedsensorsareveryvaluable

• Mayneedmorecoordination• Needhelptopooltheirdataandmakeitavailable• Afewgenerictechnologiesmayhelpmultiplegroups• Some,likeSuperDARN andSuperMAG havedonethisinspiteoflackofresources

– EUFP7hasdevelopedtechnologiesfordata-sharingwithnofollow-on• (e.g.ESPAS,HELIO)• Whatisthelegacyfortheseproject?

– Datacalibration/validationisanissueforeveryone

• Datadistributionneedstobegearedtomodels– Ifanimportantmodelneedsdataassimilation,shouldprioritisethatdataset– Notalldatashouldbeassimilated!

• Someshouldbereservedforvalidation

Improvingourinstrumentcapabilities(I:Space)

• Needformultipledistributedsensors

• Highcapabilitybutsmallsize:– Smallopticsinstruments– Miniaturisedparticleinstruments/dosimeters– Hostedpayloads(perhapsnotjustinspace)– Morecompactlargeinstruments(reducingmassbudget)

• Nicheinstruments,withnewtechnologies– Polarisationimagers(Hanle effectonINSTANT)– Ground-basedradiotechniquesformagneticfield(Faradayrotation)and

interplanetaryscintillation– Pulsecompressionupgradesforimprovedobjectranginganddetection

• SomeofthesethingsalreadybeingconsideredbyESA,butneedunderpinningtechnologydevelopmentandresearch

Improvingourinstrumentcapabilities(II:Ground)

• Needformultipledistributedsensors

• Smalldistributedsensors– Densernetworksofhigh-latitudeGPS– Magnetometers,radioinstruments– Polarandequatorialregions

• Workwithpartnersathighandlower-latitudes• Increaselatitudinalcoverage

• Betterintegrationofglobalsensors– Globalopticalsensorsfortrackingandtransients– Networkingofinstrumentsinremotelocations– Developmentandproofofalert/taskingcapabilities– Datasharingbystandardmethodsisvital!

• Newlargeinstruments– DefiningarelevantSW/SSTprogrammeforEISCAT_3D– Spaceweatherapplicationsonotherinstruments(LOFAR,SKA…)

• IntegrationwithobservingsystemsoutsideoftheEU– Participationinalready-definedinternationalframeworks– WorkwiththeNorthAmericancommunity– COSPARSpaceWeatherRoadmapisSCIENCE

TheGround-BasedInfrastructureproblem

• GroundbasedinstrumentsforSTPinEuropeareoftennationally/institutionallyfunded

• Suchfundingisoftentime-limitedandpiecemeal

• Hardwareanddataarenotstandardised,evenforinstrumentsofthesameclass

• Somelevelofdatacollectionandcombinationhasbeenfunded,asone-offprojects,withoutsufficientassuranceofcontinuity

• ThismightbeOKforlargeinstruments(EISCAT)butthereisarealproblemforsmallerones

• Thereisoftennoframeworkforconnectinginstrumentdatawithmonitoringandmodellinginitiatives.

• Allofthisgreatlyinhibitsthevaluethatwegetfromourground-basedinstrumentsandrestrictstheiruserbase.

SynergieswithINFRADEV• EISCAT_3DcameaboutwithEUsupportfromINFRADEV,ultimatelyleadingto

inclusionintheESFRIroadmap

• ThisbringsupthequestionofwhetherthereshouldbeadedicatedEuropeanspaceweatherinfrastructure,asanumbrellaforthesmallerinstruments

• Suchaninfrastructurewouldfacilitatecontinuityoffunding,instrumentdevelopmentandcoordination

• ItwouldcomplementtheESAactivitiesbyprovidingasustainablebasisforinstrumentoperationsanddatasharing

• Itwouldcollaboratewithexternalinstrumentinitiatives(SuperMAG,MAPGPS,GLORIAetc.)

• ItwouldfacilitateinteractionwiththemodellingandHPCcommunities

• ThiswasdiscussedtosomeextentattherecentIAUsymposiuminExeter:seeIngrid’sforthcomingpaper“ChallengesandStrategicResearchPlansforEarthandHeliosphere: ResearchInfrastructures,ProjectsandInitiatives”