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Evolutionary Patterns in Technology Ecosystems
4th Intelligent Storage WorkshopMay 10, 2006
Jesse C. Bockstedt(with Gedas Adomavicius)
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
General Research ProblemExplain the evolution of a technology and account for complex system of factors that influences its development Model related technologies and their evolution with respect to the analysis of a given context Provide insights for technology development decision making
AGENDA1. Theoretical background and conceptual model2. Patterns of technology evolution and evolutionary cycles3. Wi-Fi technology empirical study4. Limitations, conclusions and future work
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
Theoretical BackgroundAccording to Ziman (2000), technological innovations in an industry are so interrelated that one might describe them as occurring in an ecological system of co-evolving artifacts
Accepting a system and population view of technology evolution:
Iansiti and Levien (2004), Rosenkopf and Tushman (1994, 1998), Saviotti (1996)
Defining the structure of the system with theories of hierarchies and roles in technology evolution:
Rosenkopf and Nerkar (1999), Tushman and Rosenkopf (1992), Baldwin and Clark (2000), Podolny and Stuart (1995)
Defining change in the system with theories of technology trajectories and patterns of innovation:
Campbell (1990, 1994), Dosi (1982), Sahal (1985)
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
Ecosystem Model of Technology Evolution
Product/Application
Support/InfrastructureComponent
Specific vs. general ecosystem view Three specific roles technologies can play: 1) Product/Application, 2) Component, and 3) Support/InfrastructureRelationships among technologies are defined by the rolesInfluences among technologies shape patterns of evolution
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
Digital Music State Diagram
Paths of influence in digital music ecosystem
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
WiFi Technology: Data2425 WiFi technology certifications issued by the WiFiAlliance (www.wi-fi.org) between Mar 2000 & Dec 2005WiFi Alliance Technology Categories:
Compact Flash (Component)External Card (Component)Internal Card (Component)USB Client Device (Component)Cellular Convergence (Product)Embedded Client (Product)
PDA (Product)Access Point (Infrastructure)Ethernet Client Device (Infrastructure)Wireless Printers and Print Servers (Infrastructure)
3 types of technical functionality classifications:IEEE Standards (e.g. 802.11b, 802.11g)Security (e.g. WPA, EAP)Multimedia (e.g. WMM, WMM PowerSave)
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
Data802.11b Certifications by Category
0
12
34
56
78
910
11
December6, 1999
August12, 2000
April 19,2001
December25, 2001
September 1, 2002
May 9,2003
January14, 2004
September 20, 2004
May 28,2005
February2, 2006
October10, 2006
Date
Wifi
Alli
ance
Cat
egor
y
802.11g Certifications by Category
0123456789
1011
October1, 2000
April 19,2001
November5, 2001
May 24,2002
December 10,2002
June 28,2003
January14, 2004
August 1,2004
February17, 2005
September 5, 2005
March 24,2006
Date
WiF
i Alli
ance
Cat
egor
y
Category #Compact Flash 1External Card 2Internal Card 3USB Client Device 4Access Point 5Ethernet Client
Device 6Wireless Printers
and Print Servers 7Cellular
Convergence 8Embedded Client 9PDA 10
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
802.11b Certifications 802.11b Certification (Percentage)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q2 00
Q4 00
Q2 01
Q4 01
Q2 02
Q4 02
Q2 03
Q4 03
Q2 04
Q4 04
Q2 05
Quarter
Per
cent
age
of T
otal
Cer
tific
atio
ns
Component Products Infrastructure
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
802.11b & g Certifications 802.11b&g Certification (Percentage)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q2 00
Q4 00
Q2 01
Q4 01
Q2 02
Q4 02
Q2 03
Q4 03
Q2 04
Q4 04
Q2 05
Quarter
Perc
enta
ge o
f Tot
al C
ertif
icat
ions
Comp-b Prod-b Infra-b Comp-g Prod-g Infra-g
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
WiFi Technology State Diagram
Different cycle - infrastructure plays enabling role in the ecosystem (as opposed to supporting)
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
Empirical ProblemAre there pockets of technology evolution activity within an ecosystem? And how can we identify them?Can we clearly map the temporal changes within an ecosystem?
Approach – Data MiningData mining allows the data to “speak for itself”Identify naturally occurring patterns in technology attribute data
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
Proposed TechniqueTechnology Attribute Clustering in Overlapping Time Periods
Divide WiFi data into two year sets with one year overlap (e.g., 2000-2001, 2001-2002)Use hierarchical clustering technique (Ward’s method with Euclidean distance metric) to reduce data into clusters of similar technologiesDefine edges between clusters based on number of shared technologiesDetermine cluster centers based on average attribute values
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
Evolutionary Graph
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
Finer Granularity
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
InsightsAllows researchers to generate evolutionary maps of technology
Patterns of evolutionRelationships between technological activitiesComplexity of ecosystem
Identifies key evolutionary steps and trajectories within an ecosystem
Birth, deathConvergence (integration), divergence (separation)
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
Limitations and Challenges
Defining the boundaries of an ecosystem
Data collection is difficultComprehensive storage-related data???
What is the appropriate level of analysis? First release or patent of a technologyFrequency or number of products using a new technology
© Gedas Adomavicius and Jesse Bockstedt 2006Winter IS Conference 2006
Conclusions and Future Work
This work represents one piece of a new research stream on information technology evolutionDeveloping new data analysis methods and tools for representing technology evolution
Refining data mining and time series data analysisSoftware tools for analyzing and visualizing temporal data
Incorporating other elements into the modelFirms and economic factorsConsumers, adoption, and social factors