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7/29/2019 Final Presentation Economic analysis
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Group Members:
Abdullah Zain
Abid khan
Fawad Mir
Asad Farouk
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http://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/fbs/publications/nec2005/nec44.pdf
http://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/fbs/publications/nec2005/nec44.pdfhttp://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/fbs/publications/nec2005/nec44.pdf7/29/2019 Final Presentation Economic analysis
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Total literacy rate (%), 1999/200047 percent
Total adult literacy rate (%), 20032008
55 percent
Source:http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.html#63
http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.html7/29/2019 Final Presentation Economic analysis
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Youth (1524 years)literacy rate, 20032007,
(Male )
80 Percent
Youth (1524 years) literacy rate,20032007,
(female)
60 Percent
Source:http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.html#63
http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.html7/29/2019 Final Presentation Economic analysis
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Primary education is root cause
Causes: Opportunity Cost of child labor compared to
education Costly reading material and stationary
Effects: Low Overall level of economic development Extensive and widespread poverty
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Data 2002
Registered Doctors 101,635
Registered Dentists 5,068Nurses 44,520
Midwives 23,084
Lady Health Visitors 6,397
Population per doctor 1,446
Population per dentist 29,405
Source: Issues In Pakistan economy by S.A Zaidi
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Total Health Facilities 13,937
Hospitals 965
Dispensaries 4,916
Basic Health Units 4,872
Rural Health Centers 595
MCH Centers 1,138
TB Centers 371
First Aid Points: 1,080
Beds in hospitals &
dispensaries
105,005
Population per bed 1,515
Population to health facilityratio
11,413
Health Services Delivery (2006-07)
Doctors 107,835
Doctors registered as specialists 19,623
Dentists 7446
Dental specialists 433Nurses 43,646
Midwives 2,788
Lady Health Visitors 3,864
Lady Health Workers 95,000
Lady Health Supervisors 3,385
Population per doctor 1,475
Population per dentist 21,362Population per nurse 3,644
Human Resources(Registered, 2007)
Source:http://www.health.gov.pk/
http://www.health.gov.pk/http://www.health.gov.pk/7/29/2019 Final Presentation Economic analysis
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Source: http://www.who.int/whosis/mort/profiles/mort_emro_pak_pakistan.pdf
http://www.who.int/whosis/mort/profiles/mort_emro_pak_pakistan.pdfhttp://www.who.int/whosis/mort/profiles/mort_emro_pak_pakistan.pdf7/29/2019 Final Presentation Economic analysis
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source:http://apps.who.int/globalatlas/predefinedReports/TB/PDF_Files/pak.pdf
http://apps.who.int/globalatlas/predefinedReports/TB/PDF_Files/pak.pdfhttp://apps.who.int/globalatlas/predefinedReports/TB/PDF_Files/pak.pdf7/29/2019 Final Presentation Economic analysis
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source: http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdf
http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdfhttp://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdfhttp://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdfhttp://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdfhttp://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdf7/29/2019 Final Presentation Economic analysis
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Abid khan
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF)was Established in 1944
responsible for promoting exchange ratestability and providing temporary assistance(under Stand-By Arrangement) to a memberstate facing short-term balance of paymentsdifficulty.
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The Fund introduced new support facilitieswith time i.e.
SAF (Structural Adjustment Facility)
ESAF (Enhanced Structural AdjustmentFacility)
EFF (Extended Fund Facility) and
PRGF (Poverty reduction growth Facility)of medium-term nature.
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SAPs are designed for individual countries buthave common guiding principles and featureswhich include improving the balance of payment position,
cutting the fiscal deficit,
lowering inflation and
increasing growth.
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Trade Policy To adopt competitive real exchange rates.devalue
your currency
Lifting restrictions on exports is advised to
encourage exports Decrease in quantitative restrictions on imports..i.e.
quotas and reduction in tariff to strengthen theinternational competiveness of domestic industry.
The principal is outward-oriented export led pathfor economy, and domestic and international pricesshould be brought in line with each other.
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Fiscal Policy The reduction and elimination of fiscal deficits by
curtailing public expenditure
Increase in prices in the public sector for increasing
revenues Reformed and rationalized tax system.to increase
government revenue raising ability
Subsidies on energy and agriculture sector
substantially cut or eliminated altogether.
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Public Enterprises Treat state economic enterprise same as private
sector Reform public enterprise to improve efficiency and
profitability Close or privatize unprofitable public enterprises to
reduce government fiscal burden
Financial Sector Improve the regulatory framework to restore public
confidence Relax interest rate ceilings Liberalize time deposit rates and lending rates
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Industrial Policy Remove protection from the industrial sector to
make it more competitive Remove price controls over goods to improve
resource allocation Promote export oriented industries
Agriculture Eliminate bias against agriculture by adjusting
exchange rate and removing the protection on
industry Agric prices to be liberalized and subsidies
discontinued.
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Broad objectives achieved Economic growth revived Fiscal deficit and external debt ratio reduced Inflation came down to less than 4 percent in
2001-04 (re-emerging in later years andreaching 9 percent in 2005)
Progress made in structural reformsespecially in trade, interest rate management and capital account liberalization.
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the tax-GDP ratio remained at low level of11%
lending to public utilities high (1% of GDP)
Social indicators showed improvement, yetthey remained far below the desired levels.
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Financial sector share in GDP increased quitesignificantly.
Balance of trade deficit incresed from$1.208bn in 2003 to $20.745bn in 2008.
Total external debt increased from $36.5b in2002 to $52b by 2009
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SDR 5.17 billion ($ 7.6 billion) equal to 500%of Pakistan's quota in the Fund.
Arrangement period 23 months.
disbursed in seven tranches
It is on interest rate of 3.51-4.51%.
The amount and interest will be repaid in fiveyears from 2011.
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Restore confidence of domestic and external Tightening of fiscal and monetary policies and Protect the poor and preserve social stability
through a well-targeted and adequately fundedsocial safety net.
Initiated Economic Program to Reduce fiscal deficit: 7.4% of GDP in 2008 to 4.2% in
2009 and 3.3% in 2010 Tighten monetary policy (increase interest rate,
eliminate government borrowing) to reduce inflation to6% in 2010
Increase expenditure on social safety net (0.6% of GDPto 0.9% in 2009) -work with World Bank to prepare acomprehensive program of safety net
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Basic thrust of SAP in Pakistan has been toimprove its balance of payment position byimproving exports of cash crops
Closure of public sector industries andremoval of subsidies on food items andutilities.
Rise in inflation
Rise in poverty dramatic increase in the rate of suicides
directly attributable to unemployment.
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Pakistan received approximately US$31billion in external assistance and IMF loansbetween 1985 and 2000, yet the amountsactually spent on infrastructure and the social
action programme during this period havebeen miniscule in comparison
Rampant corruption
Vested interests and Economic mismanagement.
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Impact faced by common people because ofan immediate significant increase in the costof utilities.
18% increase every two-three months in
energy tariff.
higher fuel costs and withdrawal of foodsubsidies.
Burden transferred to consumers byindustrialists through price hikes.
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Fawad Mir
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Large Scale Manufacturing 138% growth in 2005 since 2000
Small Scale Manufacturing 80% growth in 2005 since 2000
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LSM growth reached highest in 2005 19.9%
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Major Industrial estates developed M3 Industrial Estate
Sundar Industrial Estate
Chakri Industrial Estate
Port Qasim Industrial Estate
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During 2005-08 telecom sector created 80,000 jobs directly
500,000 jobs indirectly
From 2004 to 2008 $9 billion FDI received During 2007-08 $1.62 billion 30% of countrys total FDI
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Represented 54% of economy Employed only 36% population
Industry and agriculture were neglected
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Textile exports $10.5 billion in 2006-07
$10.62 billion in 2007-08
Declined by 20% in 2008 due to recession
Textile export share 67% in 1997
55% in 2008
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Problems Increase in Cost of Production
Energy Crises
Removal of subsidies
Lack of new investment Global Recession
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Asad Farouk
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In 2004, Pervez Musharaf decides to sendPakistani military to Tribal areas
Suicide bombing starts causing law and orderproblems.
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Decline in Foreign Investments Internal Displaced People (IDP)
Increase in Unemployment
Stock exchange Suffered Decline
Rise in Smuggling
Governments Focus was not on dams andenergy sector
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We have lost 54 billion dollars in this warPress release by Foreign office
AID
10 billion dollar in Musharaf Era.
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Land Mafia Sugar Mafia
Cement Mafia
Lng Mafia
Regulatory bodies doesnt have any importancebecause prices are controlled by these cartels
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The same old nexus of bureaucracy, Military,Business giants and politicians controllingeconomy and resources.
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It is considered as next Dubai A trade Corridor for China and Central Asian
States
But because of political instability its futureis in danger.Example: Akbar bugtis extra judicial killing
in Musharaf era.
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Habib bank privatizationThe bank was sold at less than the price of its assets.Privatized for 18 billion
Bank of Punjab scandal9 billion loan issued to haris steel and 2.2 billion given to
phalia sugar mill of chaudhrys was written off.
Pakistan Steel millIntervention of judiciary saved Pakistan Steel . Governmentwas going to receive only 21 billion where as the government
was taking liability of 22 billion in shape of loans. Steel millassets were 4457 acres of land,6.7 billion rupee profit in2005.
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Shaukat Aziz imposed GST Tax recovery targets were low
Corruption in FBR
Indirect Taxation
Difference between have and have notsincreased.
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Akbar Bugti murder Chief Justice movement
Lal Masjid
Emergency
NRO
Benazir assassination
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Turkey The World Bank classifies Turkey as an upper-middle
income country in terms of the country's per capita GDP in2007.
Turkey is often classified as a newly industrialized countryby economists.
GDP composition by sector
agriculture: 9.3% Industry: 25.6%
services: 65.1% (2009 est.
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It has the world's 12th largest economy--and the thirdlargest in Asia behind Japan and China
Services, industry, and agriculture account for 54%, 29%, and18% of GDP respectively
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Why not martial law in Pakistan?
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The Future of our economy lies in a civilizedsystem.
Politics is economics
Military dictators and NRO democracy can
never change the Fate of our economy andPeople
Genuine democracy and Institutions can.