Firing less on all cylinders - Mari-Tech...

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Firing less on all cylinders:

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

in shipping

Professor Jeffrey Smith, FCIMarE

Mari-Tech 2019

23-25 April 2019 | Victoria, Canada

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in shipping

Reducing greenhouse

gas emissions in shipping

The dilemmas of climate change

Dilemma #1 – Must global trade by shipping decline (as in other sectors including aviation) in the fight against climate change?

Dilemma #2 – Within shipping, how are trade-offs in greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions to be achieved, including among states and vessel types or sectors?

Dilemma #2 – Within shipping, how are trade-offs in greenhouse

From Wagner et al, “Trading off global fuel supply, CO2 emissions”, PLOS One

The dilemmas of climate change

Dilemma #1 – Must global trade by shipping decline (as in other sectors including aviation) in the fight against climate change?

Dilemma #2 – Within shipping, how are trade-offs in greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions to be achieved, including among states and by vessel type?

An Agenda

1. The nature of the problem

2. Progress to date

3. The challenge ahead

4. Three proposed solutions

On the edge of sustainability? Global shipping and climate change

The nature of the problem

Evolution of mean global surface temperature change (IPCC SR 1.5 Report 2018)

The nature of the problem

Sources: IPCC and UNCTAD

The nature of the problem IMO projections of CO2 emissions from international transport

Sources:

IMO 2009/2014, IEA 2014, EU 2015

Progress to date

1. Regulate atmospheric pollutants of direct human health consequence: NOx and SOx under MARPOL ANNEX VI

2. Soft or indirect (i.e. threshold measures): Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) under Annex VI

What we’ve not done 1. Conceive of limits to GHG emissions for shipping

and therefore contemplate an end to fossil fuels in the industry

2. Regulate desired reductions in GHG emissions, whoever the actor (states, the IMO, regional organizations) or the instrumental regulatory measure (direct volume control, market-based measure)

Not doing is a problem of Kyoto’s delegation

Article 2(2):

The Parties included in Annex I shall pursue limitation or reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol from aviation and marine bunker fuels, working through the International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Maritime Organization, respectively.

What we’ve now done: MEPC 72 – April 2018

1. Vision: The IMO commits to reduce greenhouse gases, and to urgently phase them out as soon as possible this century 2. Reduce carbon intensity of the ship through the EEDI approach

3. Carbon intensity from global shipping to decline 40% by 2030, “pursuing efforts” toward 70% by 2050, from 2008 levels

4. GHGs from shipping to peak and reduced as soon as possible by at least 50% compared to 2008 levels.

The challenge ahead

Challenge #1 – The technical (efficiency, alternative fuels)

Challenge #2 – The regulatory (rules design, enforcement)

Challenge #3 – Monetizing carbon (market-based measures)

Challenge #4 – Infrastructure for low carbon ships

Challenge #5 – “Actor uptake”, i.e. acceptance by states, industry

Challenge #6 – Identifying and preparing new navigation routes

Challenge #7 – The disposal of pre-EEDI and other inefficient ships

Challenge #8 – Conceiving enforcement measures, e.g. PSC

Challenge #9 – Selling shipping for social license for GHG emissions

Challenge #10 – Linking air quality regulation to GHG reduction

Three ideas for getting there

1. The technical: Getting to peak emissions: A cap or absolute present limit on installed overall power in all commercial ships

2. The governance: Ending Kyoto’s delegation, thus distributed responsibility: An instrument which prescribes rules to reduce GHG emissions and commits states to individual performance

3. The social:

Creating an acceptance that carbon based fuels must for some purposes continue, and therefore required offsets

Firing less on all cylinders:

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

in shipping

QUESTIONS

Hypothetical navigation routes in the Arctic in 2040-2059 The scenario under RCP 8.5

Red lines: Ice class PC6 ships Blue lines: Open water ships

(From Smith & Stephenson, New Trans-Arctic Shipping Routes Navigable by Mid- ` Century, PNAS 2013)

The Canadian prospect: Suggested overall GHG national emission reductions after Paris

From a

Government of Canada briefing note, January 2016

The global prospect: What future for energy demand in a rising population and GDP?

Liam Wagner et al, “Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions, and Sustainable Development”, PLOS One (9 March 2016)

The Paris Agreement’s purpose clause

Cyclone Winston 0130 UTC 20 February 2016 Landfall in Fiji at peak intensity (Image: NASA’s Aqua satellite)

Firing less on all cylinders - Mari-Tech...

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