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transcript
Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power
Dr. Martin Stickel
ICCI International Energy and Environment Fair and Conference
Isanbul, 14th May 2010
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Agenda
Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG
Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power
Financial Results depending on Plant Location
Summary
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The Fichtner Group
Established in 1922 – still a family-owned concern
Germany’s biggest independent engineering and
consultancy enterprise
More than 1700 employees worldwide – 450 in our Home Office
Project experience in 150 countries
Over 1200 ongoing projects – around 650 in our Home Office
Active on behalf of:
• enterprises in the central services and utilities sector
• energy-intensive industries
• international development and commercial banks
• government and communal institutions and authorities
Total turnover of 179 million € in 2008 – 67% international turnover
3
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FICHTNER – Independent Engineering and Consulting
Germany’s biggest independent engineering and consultancy company
Founded in 1922 and 100% family owned since then
Staff strength:Home office (Stuttgart) ca. 450Total ca. 1,700
Turn-over 2008: Home office: 122 million EUR Total: 179 million EUR
On a global level FICHTNER is on average involved in approx.1,200 projects with an overall investment volume of about 60 billion EUR.
FICHTNER is represented in more than 50 countries worldwide.
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FICHTNER Turkey
FICHTNER has been working for more than 40 years on various projects in Turkey
Established in July 2008, FICHTNER Turkey is100% owned by FICHTNER Germany
Completed numerous projects mainly in the private sector
Brought together experienced international experts & local engineers/consultants and worked on the most important projects of Turkey
Vision of FICHTNER Turkey:
• Become one of the biggest well established engineering companies in the region
• Provide state-of-the art engineering and technical services to meet the demands of the growing energy market
• Make use of Turkey’s young population: Train local engineers and technical staff to make them compatible with international experts
• Use them for the most challenging projects in the region and worldwide
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Renewable Energy Technologies
HydropowerWind PowerSolarthermal PowerPhotovoltaicGeothermal PowerSolid BiomassSewage and Landfill GasBiogas
Biomass to Liquid (BtL)
Fuel Cells
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Project phase Our service Objective
Concept study Development and review of Definition of approach realization concepts
Feasibility study Investigation of technical and Financing agreement/depiction of financial viability financial performance
Conceptual and Drawing up permit Construction and operation layout engineering application documents permits
Detail engineering Drawing up tender documents Project- and client-specific tender documents
Tendering and Bid evaluation and Plant procurement to meet quality, contract award contract negotiations time and cost requirements
Construction and installation Site supervision Functional plant
Commissioning / test operation Supervision of commissioning Production-ready plantand tests
Operation Check of routine operation Regular commercial utilization
Our Range of Engineering and Consultancy Services
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Agenda
Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG
Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power
Financial Results depending on Plant Location
Summary
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Solar Irradiation in Turkey
Turkey shows similar irradiation characteristics as Spain, one of the largest solar energy markets.
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Worldwide Installed PV Supply
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PV „Grid Parity“ in Germany
Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft
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Solar TechnologiesSolar Power
PlantsSolar Thermal Photovoltaic
(PV)
Concentrating (CPV)
Non-Concentr.
DC-AC Inverter
Solar-Chimney
Linear Fresnel
Parabolic Trough
Central Receiver
Dish
Rankine Cycle (ST)
Brayton Cycle
StirlingEngine
Electric Power
Wind Turbine
Thermal Energy Storage
Concentration ratio and Temperature increasing
Integrated Solar Combined Cycle
Non-Concentrating
Linear-focusing (single axis)
Point-focusing (dual axias)
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Photovoltaics
Source: Juwi AG
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Photovoltaic Power - Module Types
•Mono-crystalline silicon: Most efficient technology (efficiencies of around 18% (commercial) to 28% (research)
•Multi-crystalline silicon: Cheaper than mono-crystalline silicon but also less efficient. Research cells approach 24% efficiency, and commercial modules approach around 16% efficiency.
•Thin film: •Cheaper than crystalline silicon but less efficient. •Various materials (amorphous silicon, Cadmium Telluride, Copper Indium Diselluride (CIS))
Selection of the technology depending on: site, irradiation, temperature, costs vs. efficiency etc.
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Photovoltaic Power - Module Tracking
Mean annual radiation gain in Central Europe
Mean annual radiation gain in Southern Europe
Fix, optimum tilt angle 0% 0%
Horizontal N-S axis 11.5% 17.4%
30° tilt axis 22.9% 29.8%
Vertical axis, module tilt 50° 23.1% 29.6%
Biaxial tracking 27.2% 34%
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Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
General Technology Principle Concentration of solar energy flow (direct irradiation required) Conversion of Solar irradiation into high temperature heat Conversion of high temperature heat into mechanical energy Conventional power generation technology
Characteristics High energy density Conventional components used (hybridisation possible) Economy of scale leads to large scale plants Possibility of thermal energy storage
Types of Solar Thermal Power Plants Parabolic Trough Fresnel Trough Solar Tower (Central Receiver) Parabolic Dish (Dish/Stirling) Solar Chimney
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Parabolic Trough
Condenser
Steam370°C, 100bar
395°C
Electricityto the grid
ParabolicTrough Field
295°C
Storage
Air and vapour
Air Air
G ~
Solar HX
Cooling Tower
Steam turbine30 MW
Source: Fichtner
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Solar Heat
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time (hr.)
So
lar
Hea
t (M
W-t
h)
21. Jundumpingto storagefrom storagedirect used
Thermal storage transfers excess solar heat into evening hours.
Extension of full load operation to night time hours Reduction of part load operation (cloud transients) Dispatchable power generation
State-of-the-art technology: Two-tank molten salt storage (E.g. AndaSol 1-3: 1050 MWh [7.5 h])
CSP Advantage: Operation without Sunshine
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Trends & Expectations
Capital Costs PV plants: 2.5-4 €/Wp EPC prices depending on module type and tracking system Decreasing module costs (future 1€/Wp), i.e. even lower EPC prices
Capital Costs CSP plants: 4-6 €/Wp (parabolic trough, 50MW) Due to technological innovations and economies of scale decreasing
electricity generation costs expected
Peak load or “base load” PV: Peak load plants purely depending on global solar irradiation CSP: Possibility of energy storage & relatively high predictability
of plant availability
Project Capacities PV: 1kW – 50MW CSP: Parabolic trough 10MW – 300MW
Fresnel 30MW (first commercial plant)
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Agenda
Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG
Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power
Financial Results depending on Plant Location
Summary
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Feasibility of Solar Projects
Fichtner Cost Database
Plant Concept & Simulation of
Electricity Generation
Plant CAPEX Plant OPEX
Revenues for Electricity Sales
Feed-in Tariff
Modelling of Project Economics
Net present valueInternal rate of returnLevelized electricity costs…
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PV Performance Projection - Example
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PV Performance Projection - Example
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Site Assessment
Source: Google Maps
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Site Assessment
Example: Johannesburg, South Africa
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Sensitivity of O&M Costs
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Sensitivity of Land Costs
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Sensitivity of Ambient Temperature
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Sensitivity of Direct Normal Irradiation
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Agenda
Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG
Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power
Financial Results depending on Plant Location
Summary
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Global Annual Solar Cell Production
Source: Photon
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PV: Projection of Module Production Capacity
Source: Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting, Inc., 2009
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cum
ulati
ve In
stal
led
Capa
city
[MW
]
Announced CSP Projects
Accelerated Base Case Slow Development
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Summary
No general „better“ technology but project specific technology selection
Size, topography, irradiation (global / direct), Accessibility, grid condition Feed-in tariffs Relevance of dispatchability / storage
Design optimization required for each project
Thorough project development and due diligence process Reliable design “Bankable” EPC and O&M Contracts
performance and plant acceptance criteria and procedures liquidated damages and incentive schemes
Reliable Yield Forecasts
Enormous potential for solar technologies in Turkey and worldwide
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Contact
Whom to contact?
FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KGBüyükdere Cad. 87/534387 MecidiyeköyIstanbulTurkey
Phone 212- 2171767 Fax 212-2178124Mobile 0549-2171775E-Mail Rabia.Recla@fichtner.de
www.fichtner.com.tr
FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KGSarweystraße 370191 StuttgartGermany
Dr. Martin StickelManager PV / Solar Technologies
Phone +49 (0)711 8995-684Fax +49 (0)711 8995-495Mobile +49 (0) 172 6358294E-Mail martin.stickel@fichtner.de
www.fichtner.de
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Typical Project Constellation
Investor
Solar ProjectSpecial Purpose
Vehicle (SPV)
Lender Insurance company
Utility
EPC contractor(s)
Service Company
Equity
EPC Contract
O&M Contract
PoliciesLoans
Power purchase agreement
Developer ManagementProject
Rights
Operation
Contract
Objectives:
Implementation of a long life power plants with high energy yield and availability Proper and safe operation complying with the relevant requirements Low cost, high return on investment
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Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence
•Project structure and obligations of project parties•Solar radiation measurements and long-term global solar radiation assumptions•Technical concept such as layout, grid connection, civil works•Energy yield assessment as to the reliability of the input data, simulation, methods and results (SOLPRO / PVSYST)
•Suitability of site (e.g. radiation, temperature, site complexity, soil conditions)•Contracts / project agreements including mainly: EPC-Contract, grid connection agreement, PPA, O&M, technical and administrative operation
•Adequacy of the technical warranties and verification procedures (e.g. performance test, availability, technical characteristics)
•Qualification of involved parties, QC/QA concept•Permits and licenses (status, constraints e.g. due to noise, etc.)•Project insurances•Time schedule / •Project management / risk management•Financial model: elaboration of model or providing input data to bank’s / financial advisor’s model
•Analysis of project sensitivities / risk assessment
Phase I: Pre-Financial Close Due Diligence
Engineering
and contract
award
Construction
Operation
Conceptual
study and
decision-
making phase
Facilitate
investment /
financing
decisions
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Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence
•Construction monitoring (compliance with contract / specifications)•Compliance with project schedule•Review of EPC contractor‘s / owner‘s progress report•Site and workshop inspections•Preparation of monthly or quarterly progress reports
Phase II: Construction Monitoring
•Certification of completion•Review of commissioning and of trial operation•Attendance and monitoring of the performance and reliability tests •Review of performance test results in view of liquidated damages requests•PV plant installation and mounting inspections
Phase III: Testing and completion certificate
•Carry out annual site visits•Preparation of (semi-) annual operating status reports including•operating performance (availability, power performance, energy yield)•maintenance and extraordinary events
Phase IV: Monitoring during term of project loan facilities
Engineering
and contract
award
Construction
Operation
Conceptual
study and
decision-
making phase
Facilitate
investment /
financing
decisions
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PV World Market 2008
Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft
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Integrated Expertise
Complete solutions on a sound technical and economic footing
Broad-based range of services from one source
Comprehensive technological know-how as foundation
• conventional technologies
• innovative technologies / renewable energies
Extensive planning experience in all project phases
Classical planning services are rounded off by
our over-arching expertise in consultancy
Consultancy
Planning Technologies
Power Supply
Energy Technology
Environmental Technology
Water and Infrastructure
IT, Economics and Finances
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Gas turbine 90 MW
Exhaust600°C
Steam turbine60 MW
Condenser
Steam540°C, 100bar
395°C
Electricityto the grid
ParabolicTrough Field
295°C
Storage
Air and vapour
Air Air
G ~
HRSGSolar HX
Cooling Tower
G ~
Stack Exhaust100°C
Solar Island Combined Cycle Island
Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC)
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Solar Thermal Power Plants – Fresnel
Principle / Characteristics Line-focussing with long mirror strips onto fixed absorber Lower optical efficiency compared to parabolic trough More simple design offers potentially lower investment cost Direct steam generation in absorber (25 – 100 bar / 270 – 550°C) Conventional water-steam-cycle (now saturated, future superheated) Efficient use of land due to compact design
Status Relatively new technology Several pilot plants in operation in Australia, Spain and USA First pre-commercial demonstration plant for electricity generation
(5 MWe) started operation end of 2008 in California First large scale plant shall start operation in 2012 in California
using Ausra’s Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector technology. New 30MW project announced in Spain, recent large
investment by Swiss utility
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Solar Thermal Power Plants – Solar Tower
Principle / Characteristics Tracked field of mirrors („heliostats“), point focussing (factor > 500) Concentration on small area on top of the tower („receiver“) High concentration factors = high temperatures (up to 700°C) High solar-electric efficiency due to higher temperatures Different heat transfer fluids (molten salt, air, water/steam) generation of steam by heat exchanger conventional water-steam-cycle
Status Potential successfully demonstrated in several large pilot plants Solar Tower technologies at different development stages First two commercial plants in operation in Spain (PS 10 & 20) Several large plants (>100 MWe) under development in US Despite first commercial plants still more R&D needed
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PV related services
- technical due diligences - on behalf of lenders as well as investors
- techno-economic feasibility and conceptual studies
- yield projections
- specifications for large-scale PV installations
- check of construction and operating contracts - EPC and O&M -
under their technical and commercial aspects
- supervision of construction and progress monitoring
- participation in acceptance tests
- verification of electricity yields during operation
- other PV related technical advisory
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Methodology
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Methodology – Financial Calculation
Levelized electricity costs (LEC) in €/kWh
It Investment expenditures in the year t in € Mt Operations and maintenance expenditures in the year t in €Et Electricity generation in the year t in kWhi Discount rate n Life time of the system in years
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Site Assessment
Nassau, Bahamas
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Sensitivity of Wind Speed
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Extract of Reference Projects – Solar Thermal
Abu Dhabi:Design and Engineering 100 MWe CST Plant
India, Mathania 140 MWe ISCC (solar 30 MWe)
JordanProject Development for 50 MWe Solar Rankine Cycle Plant
Greece, Theseus AE Project Company 50 MW Solar Rankine Cycle Plant
BMU / KfW, ZIP Program Ten research projects for Market Introduction of Solar Technology
AustraliaSite Selection andFeasibility Study 200 MW CST Plant
Spain, AndaSol-1, -2, -3: Three Solar Rankine Cycle Plants with storage, each 50 MWe
Spain, PS-1010 MW Central Receiver Plant
Spain, RentaSolar S.A. Project Company forPV Power Plants in Spain
Morocco, Ain Beni Mathar400 MWe ISCC (solar 20 MWe)
World BankGlobal Market Initiative (GMI)EM-Power
Arizona, USAProject Development for 250 MWe Solar Rankine Cycle Plant
BotswanaSite Selection and Feasibility Study for 200 Mwe CST Plant Egypt, El Nasr
Solar Process Heat Plant
Egypt, Kuraymat: 150 MWe ISCC (solar 20 MWe)
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Solar Irradiation
Different technologies use different type of irradiation.
Direct
Diffuse
Global = Diffuse + DirectDirect Direct
on horizontal plane
on normal plane
Direct
Diffuse
Global = Diffuse + DirectDirect Direct
on horizontal plane
on normal plane
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Solar Thermal Power Plants – Parabolic Trough
Principle / Characteristics Tracked parabolic trough focuses on a „receiver“ (up to factor 100) Heat transfer fluid (currently synthetic oil) heats up to 393°C in receiver Generation of superheated steam via solar heat exchanger Conventional water-steam-cycle Possibility to store thermal energy (currently molten salt storage) Solar-to-electric efficiency of 12-16%
Status Most mature and bankable CSP technology First nine plants (SEGS plants) successfully in operation
since more than 20 years in California Several Gigawatts of parabolic trough power plants in
planning or already under construction Major cost reduction due to mass production, economy
of scale and further technological advancements Next steps: Direct steam generation + implementation
of new storage technologies (e.g. concrete)
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Site Assessment
SiteDNI
[kWh/m²]
Temperature
[°C]
Wind
[m/s]
Nassau 1,890 25.7 4.1
Montalto 1,584 16.0 3.0
Johannesburg 2,302 15.7 3.5
TechnologyNassau
[kWh/kWp]
Montalto
[kWh/kWp]
Johannesburg
[kWh/kWp]
Thin film 1,886 1,609 2,020
Monocrystalline 1,728 1,485 1,904
Polycrystalline 1,683 1,466 1,879
Parabolic trough 2,125 1,570 2,155