FLOOD BY DESIGN: CHALLENGES WITH

GOVERNANCE OF DISASTER RISK IN LIGURIA, ITALY

Massimo Lanfranco @EC-JRC

TIEMS International Italy Conference, Rome 2015

Session 10New approaches and methods for Emergency Management

Disaster risk

reduction governance framework

Science

The physical environment

Agenda

Smart cities

The science-policy

interface

Physical environment

LIGURIA

LIGURIAhttp://

geoportale.regione.liguria.it/

30 km

LIGURIA09 October 2014

H 22:30H 17:30

Climate change

DOES IT MATTERS?

NOT FOR FLOODS!

Temperature

Sea temperature

IT MATTERS!

Climate change

A new problem?

Annual rain

Annual rain – average 1961-2010 (50 years)

From Atlante Climatico della Liguria – ARPAL (2013)

Climate change

Rain change

Annual rainchange 1981-2010 (last 30 years) compared to 1961-1990 (first 30 years)

From Atlante Climatico della Liguria – ARPAL (2013)

Climate change

Rain change

Spring

Summer

Winter

1981-2010 1961-1990

Autumn

From Atlante Climatico della Liguria– ARPAL (2013)

Daily rain Recent floods

Montly disasters occurenceFrom ARPAL (2013)

Varazze event 04/10/2010• 24 hrs rain rate: 324 mm (but as much as 700 mm was reported by citizens)

• 3 hrs rain rate: 290 mm

• 1hr rain rate: 180 mm

• => Return time estimated over 200 yr

But in Liguria is it statistically significant?

Rainfall data from “La Ramognina”

Varazze worst historical floods1593 - 1915

Sea level riseClimate change

1 m

Wild fires

Urban sprawl

1700 2010

Varazze

Genova

1780 2010

Urban sprawl

THINGS WE KNOWLigurian catchment are mainly very small(1 – 10 km2)

Very high rainfall: cloudburst up to 180mm/hr

Concentration time shorter than 1 hour

24 hr rain is not consistent

Autumn is dangerous, but ...

THINGS WE THINK WE KNOWClimate is changing

Probabilistic rain forecast may work

Sea level rise will be moderate (<0.5 m)

Wildfires could cause/increase debris flood

Urban sprawl is ended years ago

Legislation #1 Basin Plan

Civil Protection PlanLegislation #2

Urban PlanLegislation #3

In 50-years flood NO new buildings

In 200-years flood YES new buildings in LOWER risk areas

BUT the Italian law permits a 20% increase in volume when retrofit a civil building

From www.greenreport.it/

AULLA - 2011 flood

From http://parliamodivarazze.blog.tiscali.it/

Varazze

GOVERNANCE

CORRUPTION

DRR ACTIONS

From Walter J. Amman – GRF Davos

PLANNING

CIVIL WORKS COMMUNICATION&

INFORMATION

SMART CITIES

http://dublindashboard.ie/pages/DublinEnvironment

Where is smart Emergency Management?

Frost & Sullivan http://ww2.frost.com/

But ...

Science to policy

The worrying impact of climate changeisn’t what we know,but what we don’t

Total failure of scientific advisors to engage politicians

Science to policy

WHO HAVE TO PASS THE MESSAGE?

Science to policy

“I can write it down: in Liguria more floods”

Science to policy

Suggested readingsRavetz, J. R. (1986). Usable knowledge, usable ignorance: incomplete science with policy implications. In Clark, W. C., and R. C. Munn, eds. Sustainable development of the biosphere,p. 415–432. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Funtowicz, S.O. and J.R. Ravetz (1990). Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy. Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands.

Saltelli A. and Giampietro M. (2015) The fallacy of evidence based policy. FUTURES, 2015 special issue.

Thank you!

Contact:Massimo Lanfranco

European CommissionJoint Research Centre (JRC)

Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC)

Global Security and Crisis Management Unit

Via Enrico Fermi 274921027 Ispra VA, Italy

massimo.lanfranco@jrc.ec.europa.eu