Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions:Practical exercises for student scientists

Liz WestbyU.S. Geological Survey

Cascades Volcano ObservatoryMay 27, 2015

LWestby@usgs.gov

2

Eruption Forecasting:An Art Based in Science

Volcanoes are complex systems Interplay of variables (magma composition(s),

volume, pressure, temperature, stress, strain) Largely unseen but for “snap-shots” from

volcano monitoring instruments Decisions must be made Consequences can be serious

3

Eruption Forecasting:Tools of the Trade

Seismicity: earthquakes, harmonic tremor, the root of most volcano monitoring networks

GPS: resolves surface motion of a few centimeters or greater that occur over timescales of weeks to years

Tilt: resolves small-magnitude, short-timescale surface deformation

Volcanic Gases: composition, concentration, emission rate

Field Observations (web cameras): 24-hour visibility during good weather

4

Mount St. Helens Science & Learning CenterOnline Activities

Testing phaseAge: middle school, curious publicActivities: self-guided, worksheet-driven activities for seismicity, deformation, gas emissions, and forecasting of an eruption of Mount St. Helens

5

Volcano Seismicity(www.mshslc.org/activity/volcano-seismicity/)

PART 1. INTRODUCTION TO VOLCANIC EARTHQUAKES

PART 2: ANALYZING SEISMIC DATA

Not all earthquakes in volcanic areas indicate an approaching eruption.

6

Volcano Deformation(www.mshslc.org/activity/volcano-deformation/)

PART 1. INTRODUCTION TO DEFORMATION

PART 2. DEFORMATION MONITORING

PART 3. MEASURE TILT

PART 4. ANALYZE TILT DATA

7

Volcanic Gas Emissions(www.mshslc.org/activity/gas-emissions/)

PART 1. INTRODUCTION TO VOLCANIC GASES

PART 2. MONITORING GAS EMISSIONS

PART 3. ANALYZE GAS DATA

8

Forecasting an Eruption(www.mshslc.org/activity/forecasting-an-eruption/)

PART 1. EXAMINE MONITORING DATASEISMICITYDEFORMATIONGAS EMISSIONS

PARTS 2 AND 3. SET THE ALERT LEVEL

PART 4. INFORM THE PUBLIC ABOUT HAZARDS

9

Monday Morning Meeting at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

(nagt.org/nagt/teaching_resources/vepp/examples/48383.html)

Age: High school to university level

Activity: Students examine graphs and role-play to collaboratively assess volcanic threats and decide on a future course of action.

Resources: Worksheets, grading rubric, data on NAGT web site and can be distributed via hard copy. VEPP web site under development.Activity tracks events leading up to the July 21, 2007 eruption when a small fissure eruption occurred on the east flank of Pu'u 'Ō'ō.

10

July 21, 2007 Fissure Eruption

Pu’u ’Ō’ō crater

Seismic Data(3 maps and graphs)

Pu’u ’Ō’ō crater

GPS Data(3 maps and graphs)

Pu’u ’Ō’ō crater

Tilt Data(4 maps and graphs)

July 4, 2007

July 8, 2007

Webcam(18 images)

15

Monday Morning Meeting Exercise Expert Groups: Students divided into 4 “expert” groups: (1) tilt; (2) GPS;

(3) seismic; (4) webcam. Worksheet questions drive the discussion. Goal: each group formulates hypotheses about the current and possible future behavior based on specific data.

Interdisciplinary Groups: Students divided into interdisciplinary groups, with each new group containing at least one of the experts. Each expert talks for ~1 minute to tell the rest of the group what their data are used for, advantages/disadvantages and their interpretation. Goal: Develop an interpretation of what is happening that satisfies all data types.

Report-back: Each group presents their findings to the rest of the class and the Scientist-in-Charge. Goal: evaluate the findings, discuss the evidence and uncertainties, decide on course of action.

Written Report: Optional written report or students prepare a volcano update.

Recent Kilauea Status Reports, Updates, and Information ReleasesHAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATEU.S. Geological SurveyTuesday, May 26, 2015 8:07 AM HST (Tuesday, May 26, 2015 18:07 UTC)

This report on the status of Kilauea volcanic activity was prepared by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). All times are Hawai`i Standard Time.

KILAUEA VOLCANO (VNUM #332010) 19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCHCurrent Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Activity Summary: Seismicity rates are currently normal beneath Kīlauea's summit and deflationary tilt is ongoing. At the East Rift Zone eruption site, surface flows continue to be active within about 8.6 km (5.3 mi) of Puʻu ʻŌʻō.

Summit Observations: Seismicity rates beneath Kīlauea's summit, upper East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone were at normal, background levels during the past day. The summit tiltmeter network has recorded minor deflationary tilt at all stations beginning at about 1800 on May 24. Sulfur dioxide emission rates ranged between 3,800-8,500 tonnes/day for the week ending May 22.

Puʻu ʻŌʻō Observations: The tiltmeter on the north flank of Puʻu ʻŌʻō continues to show no significant tilt, and seismicity rates have been normal. The sulfur dioxide emission rate from all East Rift Zone vents was about 360 tonnes/day when last measured on May 19, 2015.

June 27th Lava Flow Observations: Webcam images and satellite imagery continue to show surface flow activity from several breakouts in an area northeast Puʻu ʻŌʻō. All surface flows are occurring within 8.6 km (5.3 mi) of Puʻu ʻŌʻō.

17

Eruption Forecasting:Student Outcomes

Increase understanding of volcanoes and volcano monitoring techniques

Application of critical thinking, interpretation based on evidence and reasoning, handling of uncertainties and ambiguities, decision-making, leadership

Collaboration, discussion, presentation Growth in personal knowledge about volcanoes

and real-world readiness for the next eruption

18

Resources USGS Volcano Hazards Program (volcanoes.usgs.gov/) USGS Volcano Monitoring Data Links

(volcanoes.usgs.gov/activity/data/index.php) USGS–Cascades Volcano Observatory

(volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo/) USGS–Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (hvo.wr.usgs.gov/) Mount St. Helens Institute (www.mshinstitute.org/) NAGT Teaching Resources – Monday Morning Meeting

(nagt.org/nagt/teaching_resources/vepp/examples/48383.html)