Post on 09-Apr-2018
transcript
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SUPER SATURDAY:
FIVE KEY FOREIGN POLICYCHALLENGES FOR THE NEW
PRESIDENT
by
Paige Johnson Tan, Ph.D.
Department of Public and International Affairs,UNCW
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What Do You Think?
What do you
think are the topfive foreign
policy
challenges theUS faces?
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President Obamas Foreign Policy
Hints during the campaign
as to how Obama looked at
the world:
Summer 2008 interview,
Obama praised Truman
foreign policy, particularly
Marshall and Kennan. Also praised first President
Bushs foreign policy.
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Obamas Foreign Policy
Distilling from Obama elsewhere duringthe campaign:
Obama's sense of the world was moreoptimistic than his opponents. The dangers
are real but not all-encompassing. Obama spoke less of Islamic extremism in
general and more of Al Qaeda and itsaffiliated groups specifically.
Compared to the Cold War, threatsreduced.
Most people in the Muslim world, wantdevelopment and a better life, not jihad.So, work to build the positive, not justcombat the negative.
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Obamas Foreign Policy
Other important tenets:
Importance of Americasreputation and values.
World needs US leadershipto solve problems.
Plans to talk more to foes(Iran, North Korea) andeveryone else too.
More bipartisanship athome in foreign policy.
America must stay calm, notoverreact.
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Setting the Tone:
The Inaugural Address
Very domestic in focus.
Scaled down, not as soaringas some other Obamaspeeches.
Sense was: Were in forsome tough times, but if wepull together and work
hard, well pull through. Foreign policy content was
more limited, but stillimportant.
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Setting the Tone:
The Inaugural Address
To all the other peoples and governments who arewatching today, from the grandest capitals to the smallvillage where my father was born, know that America is a
friend of each nation, and every man, woman and child whoseeks a future of peace and dignity.
Just another line later:
Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism andcommunism not just with missiles and tanks, but with the
sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understoodthat our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle usto do as we please. Instead they knew that our powergrows through its prudent use; our security emanates fromthe justness of our cause, the force of our example, thetempering qualities of humility and restraint.
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The World Obama Encounters
Not the world he expected from the campaign to
January 20th.
Probably expected to be the Get-us-out-of-Iraq,Repair-our-international-reputation president.
Instead, hes the Economy president.
Becomes one of the five top issues the presidentencounters, the first Ill discuss this morning.
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Top Challenges: The Economy
Matters for foreign policy.
Resources (hard power)
Dents the supposed US modelof capitalism (and thus oursoft power)
Hit to the budget and USdollar over the long termunknown, threat that peoplewill stop buying our bonds atsome point.
Threat of protectionism anddeglobalization.
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The International Economy: Big Picture
IMF forecasts a global contraction of .5% 1% in
2009, the first in 60 years.
Country GDP Growth
2008
(percentage)
GDP Growth
2009
(forecast)
(percentage)
GDP Growth
2010
(forecast)
(percentage)
US 1.1 -2.6 0.2
Japan -0.7 -5.8 -0.2
Europe 0.9 -3.2 0.1
World 3.2 -0.5-0.7 1.5-2.5
Developing 6.1 1.5-2.5 3.5-4.5
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Not Stimulating Enough
IMF believes 2% of GDP stimulus required. G20
spending 1.5%.
Chief economist: better to do too much than to do too
little. Politicians need to reduce uncertainty or downwardspiral of consumer and producer decisions.
Europe and Japan not doing enough.
China and the US doing more.
US pressures on Europeans to do more on spending,
according to Luxembourg Finance Minister, not to our
liking. Czech PM thought Obamas spending was the
road to hell. (early example of not-Bush-still-problems).
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International Action:
G20 Summit
To restore confidence, growth, and jobs
US$ 5 trillion expansion (already announced)
To repair the financial system, to repair lending Pledge to take action to build a stronger, more globally
consistent supervisory and regulatory framework for the
future financial sector.
Financial Stability Board, early warning ofmacroeconomic and financial risks. If notices problems in
risky behavior, will tell national authorities to regulate
more stringently.
Deal with toxic assets (not a lot of specificity)
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International Action: G20
To strengthen financial regulation and rebuild trust Regulate hedge funds and credit rating agencies.
Tough new principles on bankers pay. Making riskydecisions, pay in shares to be held long term.
Act against tax havens, sanctions. The era of bankingsecrecy is over.
Increase funding from $250 billion to $750 billion at IMF($100 billion from Japan, $100 billion from Europe, $40billion from China), including $250 billion of quantitative
easing, gets money flowing. Commit to reform of vote weight in IMF and WB, heads
appointed through open, merit-based process (IMPORTANTAND MISSED)
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International Action: G20 Summit
To promote global trade and investment and reject
protectionism.
No new trade barriers for 12 months. Agree to minimize impact from domestic policy actions
on trade and investment.
Calls on WTO to report on G20 trade barriers
Commitment to complete Doha
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International Action: G20
To build and inclusive, green, and sustainablerecovery. Recognize human dimensions of the crisis.
MDGs affirmed, commit to maintaining aid despite
crisis. Selling of $6 billion of IMF gold to help
developing world (These are loans at concessionalrates, not aid).
Reaffirm commitment to control climate change,make a success of Copenhagen at the end of the
year. Analysis: No new stimulus (France, Germany),
didnt rule out more spending in future (US)And, Michelle Obama touched the queen, morewhat the media was interested in!!
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Raising Barriers
Pledged to combat protectionism,but according to the World Bank,17 of 20 members of G20including the US have put in place47 new trade barriers since the
crisis hit. Russia used cars
Ecuador 600 items!
China ban Irish pork, someBelgian chocolates.
India Chinese toys and steel. EU export subsidies.
US bailout of automakers.
World Bank President: Manynations are falling for the siren
song of protectionist fixes.
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The Economy: Europe
Exposure to Eastern Europe:Austrian banks lending in the east,80% of Austrias GDP!
Economic decline: Unemploymentin Spain 15% in 2009, 20% in2010. 2009 -3 to -5% GDP.
Ireland: 2009 -5% GDP,
unemployment 11% Necessity of bailout, inability to
agree, insufficient domesticstimulus, according to IMF.
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The Economy:
Eastern Europe
Crisis caused by of over-borrowing, particularly over-borrowing in euros and Swiss francs.
As currencies have slid, burden has become impossible.
Potential for defaults especially strong in Hungary, Ukraine,
Latvia (GDP slide 12% this year, riots pictured above inJanuary).
Other issues: exports plummeting, remittances falling.
Cant recover as Asians did in1998 with exports due to globalnature of slump.
Other Europeans dont want to do the bailout, want IMF.
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The Economy: China
Closing of half Chinas 9,000 toyfactories.
Threat of instability asgovernments pact with the people
based on delivering constantlyimproving standards of living overthe last thirty years.
Challenge to Chinas growth modelas well. Save at home, send goodsabroad. Chinese going to have to
buy more and save less. Changed place for China on the
world stage. $40 billion big timeinternational player.
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Top Challenges: Afghanistan/Pakistan
Obama made the caseduring the campaign thatPresident Bush droppedthe ball in fighting terrorby switching the focusfrom Afghanistan to Iraq.
Pledged to raise thenumber of combat troops
in Afghanistan. Deal with narco-
trafficking, helping tofund Taliban.
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Talking about Terror
Inaugural: And for those who seek to advance their
aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents,
we say to you now that our spirit is stronger andcannot be broken -- you cannot outlast us, and we
will defeat you.
Feb 2009 Joint Session speech: pledge to defeat
Al Qaeda and combat extremism.
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Action on Afghanistan/Pakistan
Special Representatives for
AfPak: Holbrooke
Policy review, new troops
on the way.
60 Minutes Interview, calls
Afghanistan a tough nutto crack.
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Get More Out of NATO
In keeping with Obamas desire to do morein Afghanistan and to work more withallies, the administration is pressing alliesto do more in Afghanistan.
VP Biden to Europe in February to deliverthis message.
Obama in France after G20. ToldEuropeans America appreciatedEuropeans fighting alongside us.
Still, war is seen presently as being
Americanized with increased number ofUS troops, unwillingness of allies to puttroops where they might actually have tofight.
Other countries that are fighting: Canada,Netherlands.
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US Goals in Afghanistan
From the State Department website:
A stable, democratic, and economically successful
country.
An Afghan government committed to the protection ofwomen's rights, human rights, and religious tolerance.
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US Tactics
Up number of troops (Iraq)
Up economic development
Outbid Taliban for allies (Iraq)
Press Karzai to crack down oncorruption, opium
Do not allow safe haven in Pakistan
Administration also talking abouttalking to Taliban.
Easier said than done.
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Problems in Afghanistan
Is the Afghangovernment worthsaving?
Attack from the left:end the war in IraqAND end the war inAfghanistan.
Can we achievethose bold goals?
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Elections in Afghanistan
Coming August 20th
Concerns that the South inparticular wont vote.
Went against Taliban warnings
in 2004, but now faith in Karzaimuch reduced.
Fighting intense, regular securitycant be guaranteed for thecitizens, poll security cant be
guaranteed, developmentgoods not being delivered.
If the South doesnt vote,Pashtuns disenfanchised.
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Problems with Pakistan
President Zardari domestic problems, battle with
Sharif, lawyers and courts.
Lawless frontier region (cut deals leaving extremists
in control)
US drone attacks have killed 543 people in
Pakistan, only 12 top Al Qaeda. Resentment.
Makes it difficult for the government of Pakistan,especially a democratic government, to cooperate
with us.
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Top Challenges: Russia
China may be the greater long-term threat tothe United States, but Russia is the moreimmediate bugbear.
Russian oil and gas wealth + high gas prices +
Putins use of nationalism= has led to problemsfor the US.
Illustrations: Medvedevs March 2009 declaration that Russia
is going to engage in a massive re-arming.
2007 claims in the Arctic as extension of Russiascontinental shelf, planting the flag.
Near-flights seen as aggressive by US, UK.
Conflict with Georgia
Despite mugging for the camera at G20 summit,
Medvedev attacks US dollar as global reservecurrency.
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Relations with Russia since the Fall of
the USSR: A Russian Perspective
US gloated over winning the Cold War.
Made Russia eat shit.
US seen as fostering economic policies that caused
pain and decline from Russias status as a
superpower.
Aid paltry.
Oil wealth allowed Russia to swagger again (Putincontract). Booming the last eight years with GDP
growth of 8% annually.
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Policies Aggravating Russia
NATO expansion (Balticsand more? Georgia,Ukraine?)
Abrogation of ABM US attempts to make
bases in the Stanspermanent
Missile defense seeminglyaimed more at Russia thansupposed target Iran.
Kosovo independence.
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Putins Contract Breaking?
We escaped it.
Now it is hitting. Drop oil prices, ruble hasdeclined, major job losses (unemploymentat 7.7%), rising prices of food.
Talking shrinkage of economy 2% this yearopenly, may hit 5-10%. Stockmarket off80%.
Russians cannot finance lifestyles built on
import of food, cars, and tech goods. Will Putin be more tempted to use the
nationalist card to keep his contract inplace? Still at about 65% approval.
Protests in Vladivostok.
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Top Challenges: Climate Change
During the campaign, climatechange one of Obamas topthreats of the future.
Make US a leader on climatechange.
Grow numbers of green jobs.
Specifically on climate change,committed to reducing green
house gas emissions (1990levels by 2020, 80% down by2050), reverse climatechange.
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Stern on Climate Plans
Spoke in March: US is back in theclimate change game. We are seizedby the importance and urgency of thetask.
Where to: Copenhagen Conference inDecember 2009, hope to get somethingto replace Kyoto.
Priorities for the US:
Be guided by science
Kyoto seemed tough but with littlebenefits, implication need to correctthat.
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Stern, continued
The United States is committed to reaching a strong internationalagreement in Copenhagen based on both the ambitious actions thatwill be embodied in U.S. domestic law, and on the premise that theagreement will reflect the important national actions of all major
economies to contain their respective emissions. This agreement shouldencourage the most cost-effective reductions including reductionsfrom the use and management of forests . . .
We recognize that developing countries, including emerging marketslike China and India, have entirely legitimate development needs andcannot be asked to forfeit the aspirations of their people to a better
life and a higher standard of living. Even now, for example, nearly35% of Chinese live on less than $2 a day. And Indias per capitaincome and emissions are a fraction of those in OECD countries.
Developing countries too are going to have to make cuts, developedcant do this by themselves, while developing countries emissions grow.
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Pushback/Problems
Attempt to limit carbon is going to hamstring
industry and cost jobs precisely at a time Americas
economy is already hurting.
Congressman Kevin Brady (R) cost us billions!!
Energy-intensive industries will just move abroad,
race to the bottom.
Presidents global warming initiatives not in draftsof Congressional Democrat budget plans.
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Copenhagen
According to UN ClimateChief Yvo de Boer, whatCopenhagen has to deal withis:
How much are industrialcountries willing to reducetheir emissions? Cost toeconomy, especially hard attime of recession. Notimpossible. Industrial leadersasking for predictablepolicies at Davos.
How much are developingcountries like China and Indiawilling to limit growth of theiremissions? Left out of Kyoto.
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Copenhagen, continued
How will financial help be offered to developing
countries for adaptation and mitigation? Costs to
reduce and costs to deal with impacts, rising seas.
How will this money be managed? Developingcountries dont want it to be entirely donor driven.
US negotiators keep in touch with Senate (at Kyoto
agreed to a treaty that could never get past theSenate).
180 countries negotiating in Copenhagen.
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Europeans Proposal
OECD-wide emissions trading by 2015.
Limit warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial
temperature.
EU estimate: transfer to developing countries E 54
billion (no time frame).
Want air and shipping included in any agreement.
Want developing countries to aim for 15-30%below business as usual by 2020.
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Top Challenges: Iran
Obamas past policy on Iran.
Dem debate: meet with series offoreign leaders.
Refined this position as lead tough,principled diplomacy with theIranian leader at a time and placeof my choosing if and only if itadvances the interests of the UnitedStates.
Not talking doesnt make us looktoughit makes us look arrogant.
Vowed to prevent the Iranians fromacquiring a nuclear weapon. Use
sticks and carrots.
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Iran: Multiple Challenges
Iran, it turns out, poses multiple challenges to the UnitedStates.
Obvious issue of nuclear weapons, missile technology
(Feb satellite launch). But, Irans finger in many other pies where US has
interests.
Supports Hezbollah in Lebanon, affecting Israel and
prospects for Middle East peace. Supports Hamas: ditto.
Allies and activity in Iraq and Afghanistan, too.
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Happy Nowruz!!
Obama issued a March 2009 message to the Iranian
people on the occasion of Nowruz, the Persian new
year.
As with Nowruz, a new beginning in relations between
the US and Iran.
Praises Iranian culture (music, literature) have made the
world a better and more beautiful place. Poet Saadi: The children of Adam are limbs to each
other, having been created of one essence.
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The Nowruz Message
We have serious differences that have grown over
time. My administration is committed to a
diplomacy that addresses the full range of issues
before us, and to pursuing constructive ties amongthe US, Iran, and the international community.
Mentions Islamic Republic taking rightful place in the
community of nations (not regime change) but with
that place comes responsibility (cant use
terror/arms).
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Update
Joint action on Iran at London G20 Summit.
US-Russia statement: While we recognize that underthe NPT Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear program,Iran needs to restore confidence in its exclusively
peaceful nature. Meeting between Holbrooke and Iranian
representatives to talks on Afghanistan to whichObama administration had invited Iran. Mrs. Clintonwarmly responded to Iranian delegates statements on
aid for Afghanistan/crackdown on drug smuggling. Also, passed Iran an unsigned note asking for help with
three Americans.
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The Iranian Response
Khamenei: Points out that HappyNowruz comes just a week afterUS extended economic sanctionson Iran.
Doesnt want to follow this welltalk but while pressuring you.Wants relations based on mutualrespect.
Says Obamas message
reverberates with the rhetoric ofthe Bush era.
Khameneis remarks also showIrans preoccupations.
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More Khamenei
Problems with the US:
Freezing Iranian assets
Green light Saddams attack in 1980
8 years of support of Saddam during Iran-Iraq War Downing Iranian passenger plane
Demands our great and honorable nation be wipedout.
Obama extending hand to us, BUT. If an iron hand is covered with a velvet glove,
extending the hand is insignificant and worthless.
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What Khamenei Wants
Appears to want US to do something real, in advance
of talks to show changed position toward Iran, let up
the pressure.
They say come and talk, come and establish relations,they change slogans. Well, where is the change?
Mentions unfreezing assets, lifting sanctions, giving up
negative propaganda, giving up unconditional support
for Israel.
Will judge the new US administration by its
performance.
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Watch: Iran
Presidential elections coming in June.
Expect discussion of relations with the West and the
US in particular to play a role in the campaign
between Ahmadinejad and any opponent (s).
Government revenues down by half due to crash in
oil price, reducing the countrys room for maneuver.
People aware of prosperity outside and seemfatigued with isolation.
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Challenges
Weve looked at: Economy, Afghanistan/Pakistan,
Russia, Iran, Climate Change.
Important challenges not here: Just no room in a
five top for all the hard work Obama has to do.
Iraq
Israel, the Palestinians, and Arab neighbors
China Much work to be done.