Post on 13-May-2018
transcript
Foresight in the 21st Century Ready for Change
UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence
Putrajaya, Malaysia
19 August 2016
Programme • A Radically New Setting for Public Policy: A
Permanent State of Change and Disruption and An Uncertain Future "
• The Need for Anticipatory and Adaptive Governance for national development and SDGs"
• Visioning, Strategic Management and Resilient Planning"
• Empowered Futures Institute"• Do some foresight "
Our Guide
“In 2030, there will be a guaranteed, safe and healthy path through quality education for a girl from a disadvantaged background – with
real prospects for dignified employment afterwards”
Anticipatory Governance
• Tobe'eran+cipatechange,disrup+ons&shocks
• Toiden+fyrisks&opportuni+es
• Tobemoreawareoftheenvironmentinwhichoneimplementsitspolicies&projects
• Torecognizethelonger-termimplica+onsofstrategicandpolicydecisions
Adaptive Governance
• Tochooseresilientstrategies,policies&projects
• Toadaptflexiblytoachangingreality
• Tomi+gaterisksandcapitalizeonopportuni+es
• Toremainfocusedonoutcomes
• Tomaintaincoherence
Classical Planning (simplified):
• Assumes slowly changing future which can be predicted
• Relies on expert knowledge and quantitative modeling
• Projects past and current trends into the future
• Assumes linear progress (clear causality)
• Emphasizes front-end analysis, mitigation of risks and mechanical planning
Classical Planning (problematized):
• The world has gone VUCA: volatility, uncertainty, complexity & ambiguity reign supreme
• Experts and models get it consistently wrong, knowledge is distributed in the system
• Change, disruption, shocks are the new normal, and it comes from all over the place
• The future is in the making (emerging)
“Planning doesn’t disappear: the
importance of long term visioning and
short term resilience and
improvisation is amplified”
Jake Dunagan, Institute For The Future
Enter Strategic Foresight
• Foresight-driven understanding, strategy & execution
• An actionable basis for adaptive strategic planning
• A framework to cope with uncertainty while avoiding ‘shell-shock’ & ‘doing business as usual’
Applied Foresight:
• On and over-the-horizon scanning, trend spotting
• Exploring alternative futures
• Developing alternative scenarios
• Testing the relevance and resilience of existing strategies
• Designing adaptive (‘what-if’) policies
• Constantly keeping a finger on the pulse
• Foresight è Insight è Action
1. Visioning Processes (national development strategies,
organisational vision, the World We Want, etc.)
2. Strategic Management and Policy Coherence (The Future
of…, policy coordination, whole-of-government, etc.)
3. Adaptive and Resilient Planning (scenario planning,
backcasting, stress testing, etc.)
4. Public Service Innovation (creative means to explore the
interaction of key trends in alternative futures)
4 Applications of foresight
Examples of Government Foresight Units
• MyForesight – Malaysia"
• Policy Horizons Canada – Canada"
• Government Foresight Network – Finland"
• UK Foresight Office – UK"
• Federal Ministry of Education and Research ‘Futur’ Project - Germany"
Empowered Futures Initiative (EFI)"
• GCPSE will soon launch the Empowered Futures Initiative"
• Aim of the Initiative is to assist public service organizations with the introduction of foresight"
• Initiative will collect relevant evidence, facilitate foresightXchanges and strengthen foresight capacity"
• Initiative will bring together foresight partners from around the world"
A bit of Foresight
“In 2030, there will be a guaranteed, safe and healthy path through quality education for a girl from a disadvantaged background – with
real prospects for dignified employment afterwards”