Doomsday Capitalism:Doomsday Capitalism:Is There a Way Out of the Long Is There a Way Out of the Long

Depression?Depression?

Seminario Globalizacion, Conocimiento y DesarrolloSeminario Globalizacion, Conocimiento y DesarrolloUNAM, 15-17 March 2006UNAM, 15-17 March 2006

Francisco LouçãFrancisco Louçã

ISEG, LisbonISEG, Lisbon

A conventional view of growthA conventional view of growth

Long Waves in capitalist developmentLong Waves in capitalist development• Expansion Expansion DepressionDepression

1st LW 1st LW 1789-18161789-1816 1816-18471816-1847 Age of cotton and water powerAge of cotton and water power

2nd LW 2nd LW 1848-1873 1848-1873 1873-18961873-1896 Age of steam power and mechanizationAge of steam power and mechanization

3rd LW3rd LW 1896-1919 1896-1919 1920-1939/451920-1939/45 Age of steel and electrificationAge of steel and electrification

4th LW 4th LW 1945-1967/73 1945-1967/73 1974-?1974-? Age of motorization and mass productionAge of motorization and mass production

Diffusion of steelDiffusion of steel

ElectrificationElectrification

Managerial and organizational Managerial and organizational changes through the long waveschanges through the long waves

Water power, mechanizationWater power, mechanization factory systemfactory system

Steam power, mechanizationSteam power, mechanization joint stock co.joint stock co.

ElectrificationElectrification specialized professional specialized professional management, Taylorismmanagement, Taylorism

MotorizationMotorization mass production, Fordismmass production, Fordism

ComputerizationComputerization networks, local and networks, local and global global productionproduction

Rate of profit (US vs EU)Rate of profit (US vs EU)

A measure of the long crisis for the G6A measure of the long crisis for the G6

Comparison of Techno-Economic ParadigmsComparison of Techno-Economic Paradigms