Post on 12-Jan-2015
description
transcript
From €3 billion to €6 billion
How did we get there?Where will it get us?
20,
000
40,
000
60,
000
80,
000
€m
illio
ns
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Government Revenue
Government Spending
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual tax revenue and government expenditure
Government Accounts
20
30
40
50
60
% G
DP
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Government Spending
Government Revenue
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance
Annual government revenue and expenditure, %GDP
Government Accounts
40,
000
55,
000
70,
000
85,
000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Government Spending
Government Revenue
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance
Annual government revenue and expenditure, €millions
Government Accounts
140
,000
160
,000
180
,000
200
,000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
140
,000
160
,000
180
,000
200
,000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
140
,000
160
,000
180
,000
200
,000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
140
,000
160
,000
180
,000
200
,000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
140
,000
160
,000
180
,000
200
,000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
140
,000
160
,000
180
,000
200
,000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections1
40,0
001
60,0
001
80,0
002
00,0
00
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Revised GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
140
000
160
000
180
000
200
000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
140
,000
160
,000
180
,000
200
,000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Nov 2010
GDP Projections Nov 2010 excluding 'extra' adjustment
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
140
,000
160
,000
180
,000
200
,000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Revised GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
140
,000
160
,000
180
,000
200
,000
€m
illio
ns
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'
GDP Projections Nov 2010 excluding 'extra' adjustment
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
Dec-09 Nov-10CURRENT BUDGET ExpenditureGross Voted Current Expenditure 55,183 55,000Non-Voted (Central Fund) Expenditure 8,335 7,500Gross Current Expenditure 63,518 62,500less Expenditure Receipts and Balances 13,829 12,750Net Current Expenditure 49,689 49,750ReceiptsTax Revenue 32,800 31,750Non-Tax Revenue 1,093 1,750Net Current Revenue 33,893 33,500Less Adjustment 2,000 2,000CURRENT BUDGET BALANCE -13,797 -14,250
CAPITAL BUDGETExpenditureGross Voted Capital 5,500 5,500Non-Voted Expenditure 824 1,150Gross Capital Expenditure 6,324 6,650less Capital Receipts 476 250Net Capital Expenditure 5,848 6,400Capital Resources 1,629 1,500CAPITAL BUDGET BALANCE -4,218 -4,900
EXCHEQUER BALANCE -18,015 -19,150
Moving Targets
Sticking to the 10% target it would allow a GGB of €16.1 billion.
Changing the target to 9.3% means the allowable (in the sense of the target) GGB can be of the order of €15 billion.
Moving the goalposts sees another €1 billion added to the planned adjustment.
From €3 billion to €6 billion
€1 billion as a result of changes to nominal GDP– CSO revisions of GDP figures (€0.4 billion)– Drag of increased adjustment (€0.3 billion)– Reduced inflation expectations (€0.2 billion)
€1 billion due to continued deterioration of the public finances€1 billion due to reducing the GGB target from 10% to 9.3%.
€0 billion due to reduced growth forecasts.
20
30
40
50
60
% G
DP
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average
Ireland
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual government revenue, %GDP
Government Accounts
20
30
40
50
60
% G
DP
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average, %GDP
Ireland, %GNI
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual government revenue
Government Accounts
20
30
40
50
60
% G
DP
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average
Ireland
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual government expenditure, %GDP
Government Accounts
20
30
40
50
60
% G
DP
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average, %GDP
Ireland, %GNI
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual government expenditure
Government Accounts