Post on 27-Dec-2015
transcript
Fuel Economy/Consumpti
onMoroccan Case study
Center for Environment and Development For The Arab region and Europe.
Fuel Economy/ConsumptionFuel economy (Miles per Gallon)
A measure of maximum distance covered by a vehicle
Fuel consumption (Liter per/ 100 km-Gallons/100 miles)Amount of fuel saved in lower ranges of MPG
higher than those in higher rangesConsumer convenience
Vehicle Energy EfficiencyEngine
Losses (friction &pump)
Aerodynamics & Tires
Transmission Terrain
Balancing shafts
Bore-to-stroke ratio
Weight& Fuel
StandardsEuropean Union
Entire fleet based on mass of a vehicleSliding scale application of standardsTightening regulationsOverlooking technology
USAFirst standards: determined solely by production
levelModified Standards: Size based accounting for
sales levels. Sole reliance on vehicle size
Driving cycleEnforcement agency
Test figures presented by manufacturers Cycle based on local conditions: driving patterns
and behavior , road types and elevations levels, etc.
CAFÉ, NEDC, Japanese and South Korean .
Approach and limitationsGFEi definition of LDVs
Sales of new LDVs in the study years. Data obtained from manufacturers through an automotive markets consultant
Official figures for co2 emissions and fuel economy/consumption are used based on NEDC
Data was not obtained for 1% of new LDVs.
Parallel market sales were not obtained
Total Number of Vehicles on the Road
LDVs sales
Moroccan Macro IndicatorsMotorization rates (Vehicles per 1000
inhabitants): 81-84 much higher than Egypt and Moroccan (OICA, 2012)
Urbanization rate: 57.7 %, considerably higher than Egypt’s and lower Tunisia’s
GDP per capita at PPP : more than $6,600 for 2011-2013 (CIA, 2014)
Average GDP growth from 1999 to 2014: 4.43
Moroccan Trends Explanation
Motorization rate correlates with urbanization rate
Constant increase in total number of vehicles on the road
New LDVs sales show steady increase
Rate of increase lower than Egypt’s ?
+
Policy EnvironmentVAT ranges between 7 and 20% in two schemes
for imported and domestic cars, lower than Tunisia’s.
In 2012 customs on European cars were levied. 17.5% for Asian cars and a lower rate for American one due to FTA
Free competition between authorized dealers due to government strategy of encouraging vehicles ownership
Less intense subsidy system
Policy EnvironmentRegistration fees proportional to horsepower
Annual taxes for different horsepower ranges on a sliding scale
Luxury cars subject to additional taxes function of cost
Fuel economy/Consumption
data
Fuel economy/consumption
data
CO2 Emissions Data
CO2 Emissions data
TrendsFuel consumption/economy lower than both OECD and
non-OECD averages of 7-8 Liter/100km levels for 2005, 2008 and 2011 levels.
Weighted harmonic averages for fuel consumption/economy for diesel LDVs were always few decimal points above 4 liters/100 km
LDVs and CO2 emissions data display similar patterns
Fuel economy/consumption of diesel LDVs is lower than petrol’s LDVs
Weighted average co2 emissions for 2009 were considerably higher than those for 2012 and 2013.
TrendsDiesel LDVs comprise average passenger cars.
Weighted average diesel LDVs were higher than unweight average in 2009
Weighted average petrol LDVs were lower than unweight one in 2009
Trend set on a course of reversal as of 2012
Explanation Less intense subsidies, lower diesel pump prices
and gender preferences are raising the levels of fuel efficiency-consciousness in Morocco. They curb the impact of slashed tariffs.
Predominance of European cars thus capitalizing on increasingly stringent European standards
Higher weighted average co2 emissions in 2009 due to the sale of certain models, not sold in 2012 & 2013, associated with high co2 emissions levels.
Gender preferences affect the trends.
Needs
Opportunities Export orientation sets limits on the introduction of strict local fuel
economy standards.
Focus on European markets can pull towards more technologically sophisticated LDVs
Government support to automotive industry gives some leverage in regulating the market.
Investment charter and liberalized LDVs market rule out import restrictions
A combination of registration fees and vehicles taxations are already in place.
Increasing democratization, providing venues for a transparent, across-the-board societal dialogue.
Way ForwardIntroduction of weight & engine-sized based
criteria into the vehicle tax system
Development of policies directed at promoting energy-efficient technological attributes.
Drawing on international expertise in developing the abovementioned policies.
Way ForwardLinking policies to attainable fuel consumption
savings in absolute terms
RecommendationsEstablishment of a multi-stakeholder resident
committee to prepare a roadmap for the introduction of fuel economy standards
Drawing on international expertise in advising the committee on preparation and implementation of standards and import restrictions linked to accruing fuel savings.