TheWorldin2020InsightsfromMul0pleExpertDiscussionsJanuary2011 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram

TheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogrammethataccessesmul;pleviewsofthenextdecadesothatwecanallbebe?er

informedandhences;mulatemorefocusedandimpac@ulinnova;on.

FutureAgenda Context

Thisdocumentprovidesasummaryofwhatweheardfrommul;pleexpertvoicesaroundtheworldin2010–onhowitischanging,whatisdrivingchangeandwhatandwherewillbetheimpactsoverthenextdecade.

TheWorldin2020 Context

Acrossthemul;plediscussions,52emergingissuesaretouchinguponandconnec;ngwitheightunderlying,andinterwoven,themeswith

differentemphasisindifferentcountries.Thesearedetailedbelow.

SevenThemes

Certain;es Health Wealth Happiness

Mobility Security Locality

FourCertain;es

By2020wewilladdanother750mpeopletotheplanet,mostinplacesleastabletoaccommodatethem

ImbalancedPopula?onGrowth Certain?es

Wewillseeeconomic,physicalandpoli;calshortagesofkeymaterialsthatwillresultinmajorchangesinourperspec;ves

KeyResourceConstraints Certain?es

ThecentreofgravityofglobalwealthshiQsEastwithdecreasedinfluencefortheUSandEurope

AsianWealthShiE Certain?es

Wewillbeconnectedeverywhere-everythingthatcanbenefitfromanetworkconnec;onwillhaveone

UbiquitousDataAccess Certain?es

Health

Robo;cassistedcareandremotemonitoringprovideeconomicallyviablesupportforthesickandelderlyso

thatpeoplecanstayhomeforlonger

AutomatedPeopleCare Health

Enhancedfunc;onalitywillshiQfromanexternaladd-ontoanintegratedcapabilitytoprovidetheop;onforsuper-humanperformance

ClinicalEnhancement Health

Withdiabetesconsuming5%ofGDPacombina;onoffattaxa;on,pa;entdataminingandpersonalbudgets

willplayaroleinstabilisingtheobesityepidemic

Diabesity Health

Wearelikelytosee2to3majorpandemicsstartinregionswithlimitedpublichealthcareandrapidly

spreadgloballyandsodemandfastresponse

GlobalPandemics Health

Stoppingmentaldegrada;onfromAlzheimer’smakesqualityageingmorepossiblebyimprovingcogni;onandslowingtherateofdecline

Hal?ngAlzheimer's Health

Medicaltourismgoesmain-streamaslow-costcardiacsurgeryandbroaderhealthcareprovisionjoin

den;stryandcosme;csurgerytohaveglobalimpact

MassMedicalTourism Health

Morecustomisedfoods,blurthelinebetweenpharmaceu;calsandfoodasneutragenomicsallowindividualiseddietstofitgene;cprofiles

PharmaFoods

Health

Theescala;ngeconomicandsocialcostofsuppor;ngtheagedbeyondnaturallifecyclesleadstowideracceptanceofassistedsuicide

SystemicEuthanasia

Health

Wealth

Asinforma;onissharedgloballyandinsightiscommodi;zed,thebestreturnsgotothosewhocanproduce

non-standard,differen;atedknowledge

Differen?atedKnowledge

Wealth

Pervasivesmartmetersandubiquitoustrackingservicescreatepla@ormsforthedynamicpricingof

resources,accessandtraveltomanagedemand

DynamicPricing Wealth

Risingsustainabilityimpera;vesandincreasingcostofownershipshiQthebalancefrom

ownershiptoaccessandweprefertorentthanbuy

LeaseEverything Wealth

Consumersareincen;visedtousesignificantlylessenergyasescala;nggrowthincarbonemissions

forceu;li;estochangetheirbusinessmodels

LessEnergy Wealth

Therevitalisa;onofbartering,decreasedtrustinbanksandincreasingtaxavoidancebroadens

theadop;onofalterna;vestoresofvaluefortrade

LocalCurrency Wealth

Provensystemsbuiltonmobileconnec;vityandincreasinglyflexiblemeansofexchangeprovidea

;ppingpointintheshiQtowardsthecashlesssociety

MobileMoney Wealth

Wideningdifferencesinwealthbetweenandwithinurbanandruralcommuni;esextendsthegapbetween

richandpoor-buttheys;llneedeachother

RicherPoorer Wealth

TheeconomicriseofAsiaandtheneedforanalterna;vetotheUSdollarastheworld’sreservecurrencyproduces

aparallelbroad-basketAsianCurrencyUnit

ThirdGlobalCurrency Wealth

Happiness

Awealthier,healthieroldergenera;onincreasinglyengageinmoreac;velives,havingextendedcareers

andbecomingmorepoli;callyinvolved

Ac?veElderly Happiness

Theincreasingfragmenta;onofsocietyandlooserconnec;onbetweenreligionandthestate

seesmoreofusturningtoGod

ChoosingGod Happiness

Theneedtodifferen;atebetweenrealandvirtualdisappears-whoyouareceasestouseasingulariden;ty

aswemanagemul;pleiden;typor@olios

CocktailIden??es Happiness

Growingsa;sfac;oninthebasicsoflifefocusesmoreonmakingthemostoftheday-to-day

andincreasinglyvaluingtheordinary

EnjoyingtheOrdinary Happiness

Thefutureisoneofreducedchoicebutnotlessinterestasretailersprovideanincreasinglyeditedpor@olioofproductsthroughevermoreefficientchannels

LessVariety Happiness

Theroleofliveinanincreasinglyvirtual,isolatedworldbecomesmoreimportantto

createmomentsfordeeper,richerconnec;ons

LiveExperiences Happiness

Mul;plemediasourcesareinstantlyintegratedatthepointofconsump;ontoprovideuswithimmersive

accesstotailored,bite-sizedcontent

SeamlessMediaConsump?on Happiness

Beingdisconnectedinanalwaysconnectedworldleadstovirtualcocoonsathomeandrealphysicalsolitudebecomesanop;ononlyfortherich

SwitchingOff Happiness

Mobility

Ledbymoretouristsandsteadygrowthincargotransporta;on,Asianavia;onplacesmoreordersandbecomesthelargestairmarketintheworld

AsianAvia?on Mobility

China,thepacese?erforchangeininter-urbantransport,isinves;ngover$1trillionexpandingits

railnetworkto120,000kmby2020

ChineseTrains Mobility

Underincreasingpressuretoimproveefficiencyfreightshippingadoptsarangeofalterna;ve

policiesandpowersystems

CleanShipping Mobility

WithFranceandGermanytakingtheini;alleadroles,electriccarstakeoffandformupto10%ofthe

world’svehiclefleetby2020

ElectricMobility Mobility

Meshnetworksandubiquitousmobileconnec;onsdeliverautomatedhighwaystoimprovesafety,

increasecapacityandreduceconges;on

IntelligentHighways Mobility

Withincreasingeconomicmigra;onthetotalMuslimpopula;onofEuropeissimilarinsizetothatofGermanyandarisingcultural/poli;calinfluence

MuslimEurope Mobility

Theacceptanceofbeingtrackedbyyourmobileisacceleratedby;cket-lesstransportsystems,increasedsurveillanceandsuccessfulloca;on-basedservices

PeopleTracking Mobility

Informedchoices,growth,conges;onandregula;onimpacttheworld’sci;estodriveashiQtomoresustainableefficienttransportop;ons

Urban(Im)mobility Mobility

Security

TheshiQinglobaldietfromricetomeatbringsnewsourcesofproteinlikelab-grownmanufactured

meatsandhighproteinvegetablecombina;ons

Alterna?veProteins Security

Ac;vegatheringandinterpreta;onofdatarelatedtothreatstohumanandanimalhealthdeliversfasterearlywarningandsitua;onalawareness

Bio-Surveillance Security

Greaterinforma;onoverloadmovesourfocusfromsimplyaccessingdatatoincludethesource

oftheinsighttodis;nguishwhatwetrust

CredibleSources Security

Withmorefreeagentsandoutsourcing,non-corefunc;onswithinorganisa;onsareinterchangeable

andeasilyrebuiltaroundvalue-crea;ngunits

CorporateLEGO Security

IntelligentUAVschoosetheirvic;msthemselvesastheraceformorefocusedmilitaryinfluenceleads

totheprolifera;onofassassina;ontools

DroneWars Security

Increasinggovernmentalfocusonenergysecurityandclimatechangedrivestheuptakeoflarge-scale

solarastheleadingrenewablesupply

SolarSunrise Security

Advancedwaterpurifica;on,irriga;onanddesalina;ontechnologiesareusedtohelpcommuni;estomanagetherisingsupply/demandimbalance

WaterManagement

Security

Trus;ngourdigitalcreden;alsallowsustopar;cipateconfidentlyinopenglobaltransac;onstogainaccess

towhatwewantwhenwewantit

VirtualAuthen?city Security

Locality

Escala;ngwasteproduc;onandnewadtudes,approaches,regula;onandbusinessmodelsleadmanytoaimforanalmostzerowastesociety

AlmostZeroWaste

Locality

Theneedtomakepublictransportasflexibleasprivatefocusesa?en;ononthelastmilebetweenmul;-modal

hubsandthehome/workdes;na;on

BridgingTheLastMile

Locality

Inruralandurbanenvironments,thecommunityisaprizedgoalforthemiddleaged,middleclassesas

theyseektoreconnectwith“peoplelikeus”

CommunityLiving Locality

Asurbanmigra;onincreases,efficient,denselypopulatedci;es,notdistributedop;ons,aretheblueprintsformoresustainableplacestolive

DenseCi?es Locality

Increasedtransparencyonfoodavailabilityandsecurity,landuseandeco-literacyacceleratemassconsump;on

oflocallygrownandprocessedfoods

LocalFoods Locality

Smarter,be?erconnected,self-monitoringhomesandofficesprovidesafer,moresecure,lowenergy

buildingsabletoself-manageu;li;es

Intelligentbuildings

Locality

Increasingcompe;;onbetweenci;esover-ridesna;onalpriori;esasmayorsleadboldini;a;vestoplacetheir

ci;esattheforefrontoftheglobalstage

MegaCityStates

Locality

Immigra;onispartofeconomicdevelopmentstrategiesand,especiallyinlowfer;lityeconomies,

na;onsposi;onthemselvestoa?ractmigrants

Migra?onMagnets Locality

Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org

Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram

What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix

www.futureagenda.org