Future of Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare Innovation and Biotech - Conference Keynote Speaker

transcript

Are you fit for tomorrow ?

Dr Patrick DixonChairman Global Change Ltd

Fellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School

Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most influential

business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)

Future of Pharmaceuticals, healthcare innovation and biotech for Roche (2011)

500 videos of keynoteswww.youtube.com/pjvdixon

over 4 million views

www.globalchange.com14 million unique visitors

From Global Crisis to Recovery

Wild Cards

Low probability, high impact events

Swine flu boost to E-prescribing

Future of Health will be shaped by emotion

Future in developed markets is about performance not wellness

“Yesterday’s drugs were about need: tomorrow’s will be about living faster and staying young”

People Want to Look Better• 51% growth in botox treatment• 31% growth laser hair removal• 31% growth in cosmetic surgery enquiries• (UK 2007 2008)

Sexual Performance

Brain Faster – and better?

may be

Remote diagnostics and image reporting Your own personal tech may be better than NHS

Remote treatment

Remote surgery – hype and reality

DIY monitoring

Computer-aided diagnosisWhat kind of training will nurses and doctors really need in future ?

Reducing Error• 1 in 12 people who died in US hospitals in

2003 were given wrong diagnosis• Dxplain – diagnostic database

– 2500 clinical diseases and 4,900 clinical findings

Data on drug reactions

• 100,000 deaths a year in US• 2 million significant side effect problems

Genetic Prophecy – Are We Ready?

Read Human Genome in an • Fluidics• Biochemistry• Genetics• Mathematics• Immunology• Robotics

Genes for speech, memory, criminality, depression, obesity and stable relationships

Huge Unmet Needs

Innovation in Ageing

Permanent Hair Colour• Adenovirus • Infected mouse hair cells• Permanent colour change

Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boost

KB-141 Thyroxine Analogue Boosts Metabolism

• KB-141 is a synthetic form of thryroxine that increases metabolic rate, makes the body burn more fat, reduces LDL cholesterol and lipoprotein without stimulating heart rate.

• Obese monkeys lost up to 7% of their body mass in 7 days

• Heart rates were unchanged• KB-141 is only 14 times as active at b receptors than at

a receptors. 100-fold difference would be better• Karo Bio made KB-141 which has been tested by Bristol-

Myers Squib• Global sales of better KB-141 analogue:

Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of

hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales?

Twice daily Rx prolongs life by 20% Global sales?

Caloric Restricted Mice Live LongerStephen Spindler Biomarker Pharmaceuticals

These animals also develop fewer cancers – but prone to infection / other problems

Metformin – most of the benefit of caloric restriction, none of the pain of diets

Stephen Spindler Biomarker Pharmaceuticals

• Age-onset diabetes Rx for many years (Glucophage / Bristol Myers Squib and many generics)

• Extends lifespan of non-diabetic mice by 20% if started in late middle age

• Few side effects or toxicity when given to non-diabetic humans

• Rapid growth in self-medicated people hoping to extend healthy living – unwilling to wait 20 years for animal studies in monkeys or clinical trials – cost 20 cents a day

• 70% of age-related gene changes in mice are reversed in 2-4 weeks of caloric restriction – sometimes in a day or two

• Similar changes are found when using metformin

Metformin analogues could be anti-cancer and anti-ageing blockbusters

• Gene expression changes common to metformin and CR are similar

• Changes are consistent with enhanced apoptosis and protein turnover, and reduced tumor incidence and cellular stress

• Results suggest that metformin is potential CR-mimetic.

• Phenformin, a glucoregulatory drug similar to metformin, extends the lifespan of mice by 23%, and reduces cancer as a cause of death from 80% to 20%

• Need for better analogues

Near-perfect repair of heart or brain damage

following coronary / stroke

We can transform cells in a laboratory – but far better would be to transform them where they are in

Diabetes – New Approaches

• Direct transformation of liver to healthy pancreatic cells using simple injections every three months… a pharma solution

• Achieved in tadpoles and in human liver culture

• Potential sales?

Transformed cells usually stable

• Transcription factor turns on gene which produces more transcription factor

Add transcription factor

Gene activatedTranscription factor produced in cell

Prime Cell

Transformation

Switch Liver Cells to Pancreatic

J Slack

• Liver and pancreas develop from embryonic endoderm• Some liver cells are unstable and easily influenced• Biotech trick: make artificial transcription factor which binds to

“liver” promoter gene, but activates “pancreas” genes – PDX1-VP16

DNA recognition Gene activation

Cut molecule and switch gene activator

Liver promoter genes

Transcription factor:

Liver genes Pancreas genes

Silenced Activated

Liver to Pancreas Next Steps• Mouse studies next year

– Early results in 6 months• Human trials 5 years after

– Prove pancreatic cell groups can be created in liver– Show normal pattern insulin production– Show ectopic pancreatic tissue produces secretions which channel into

bile duct– Develop transport mechanism to deliver PDX1 into liver cells from an

injected precursor (has patentable solution)• Use lisosomes with liver antigens• Use amino acid sequences already present in some transcription factors to

get PDX1 into liver cells• Safer than adenovirus• Short-term protein “blast”• No ethical problems• No new genes

– Previous funding from Wellcome Foundation– Looking for 3 people for 2 years to prove efficacy in mice

Negligible senescence is a reality

• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales

• No signs of getting old

Impact on Budgets and Health Rations

Future Unmet Needs

NumberAffected

SeverityClinical conditions

Performance / life-enhancement

Trend – line is falling IVF

Female baldness

Male baldness

Sickness

Lifestyle

PublicHealthPolicy

Memory

Slides: globalchange.com/ppt 12 million different visitors 2.7 million video views

Take Hold of Your Future