Post on 17-Jan-2016
transcript
FY 2015 & 2016 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
Initial FY 2016 Forecasts Exports = $138.5 billion Imports = $122.5 billion Surplus = $16.0 billion
Changes Since May in 2015 ForecastExports $1.0 billion to $139.5 billionImports $1.5 billion to $115.5 billionSurplus $0.5 billion to $24 billion
Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS
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Bil
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Exports
Imports
Trade Surplus
Records
138.5
152.3
109.2115.5
24
43.1
Lower Bulk Export Prices and Strong Dollar Impact Exports
139.5
122.5
U.S. Agricultural Trade
Grains, Oilseeds & Cotton
Grain and Feed $800 million - higher feed exports, especially distiller’s dried grains to China
Oilseeds $100 million - strong exports of soybeans
Cotton $400 million - strong end-of-season shipments due to reduced competition
Livestock & Horticultural Products
Livestock & Products $1.5 billion - lower broiler prices, weak beef demand and lower U.S. dairy exports and prices
Horticultural Products $500 million – weaker fresh fruit and vegetable exports to certain markets
Exports forecast down $1 billion to $139.5 billion
FY 2015 Exports Revisions (Aug. vs. May)
Grains and Feeds Oilseeds Cotton Livestock Products
Horticultural Products
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Initial FY 2016 Forecast vs. Revised FY 2015
Bill
ion
Do
llars
+$1.1 Billion +$600 Million
+$2.0 Billion
-$4.4 Billion
-$400 Million
FY 2016 Forecasts
U.S. Major Bulk Export Volume Forecast to Expand AgainBut Value Falls on Lower Prices
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 (e) FY 2016 (f)0
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U.S. Major Bulk Export Volume and Value
U.S
. Bul
k Ex
port
Vol
ume
(Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons)
U.S
. Bul
k Ex
port
Val
ue ($
Bill
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Bulk Value
Bulk Volume
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (e) 2016 (f)0
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Overall Forecast down $1.0 Billion from FY 2015
Bulk High Value
Bill
ion
$
$ 45
.1 B
illio
n
$ 42
.7 B
illio
n
$ 94
.4 B
illio
n
$95.
8 B
illio
n
High Value Exports to Rise while Bulk Falls
+$200 mil
-$2.0 bil +$200 mil
+$300 mil
-$100 mil
FY 2016 Export Changes by Market
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (e)
2016 (f)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30U.S. Agricultural Exports to Canada, China, & Mexico
Bill
ion
Dol
lars
China
Mexico
Canada
U.S. Exports to China Forecast to Fall and for 1st Time Since 2010, Canada to Return as Largest Export Market
*Includes Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, & Barley
Imports Forecast at a Record $122.5 Billion
2015 (e) 2016 (f)0
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Livestock and Dairy Products Grains, Feed, & OilseedsHorticultural Products Sugar and TropicalOther
Billi
on $
24 27.2
19.4
20.6 19.7
54.5 50.5
18.3
Initial FY 2016 Projection: $32.4 Billion Revised FY 2015 Forecast: $31.3 Billion
$800 Million
Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products
2016Key DevelopmentsWheat is primary driver of higher forecast-volume up, more than offsetting lower unit values.Corn up slightly despite lower unit valuesSorghum, Feeds & Fodders mostly unchanged, despite higher Chinese purchases
Wild CardsChina’s policy uncertainty and potential impact on coarse grains trade
2015Key DevelopmentsFeeds & Fodders sharply higher on Chinese purchases (DDGS) '0
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41Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug 15 Forecast
Aug 15 Projection
Initial FY 2016 Projection $26.7 Billion Revised FY 2015 Forecast: $31.1 Billion
$100 Million
Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products
2016Key Developments Soybean and soybean meal volumes decline significantly. Soybean value declines on lower unit prices and smaller volume. Soybean product values fall with lower bean prices and reduced trade volume.
Wild Cards China soybean demand Exchange rates Argentine policy U.S. production prospects
2015Key Developments Soybean volume raised
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Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug 15 Forecast
Aug 15 Projection
Initial FY 2016 Projection: $3.7 BillionRevised FY 2015 Forecast: $4.1 Billion
$400 Million
Export Outlook for Cotton
2016Key Developments Sharply lower U.S. productionTightening U.S. stocks support unit valueWild Cards India support program Cotton yarn demand in ChinaSales from China State Reserve
2015Key Developments Weak sales from government held stocks support world prices.Southern Hemisphere 2015 crops slower to market than expected
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Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug 15 Forecast
Aug 15 Projection
Initial FY 2016 Projection: $30.4 BillionRevised FY 2015 Forecast: $29.8 Billion
$1.5 Billion
Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry
2016Key Developments Pork up as higher volumes more than offset lower unit values Beef unchanged as slightly higher volumes offset lower unit values Poultry down as lower unit values more than offset higher volumes for some products
Wild Cards Ongoing SPS trade issues
2015Key Developments Beef lowered on declining volumes, pork revised higher on increased volumes Poultry reduced on lower broiler meat prices; tighter turkey and egg supplies '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
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Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug 15 Forecast
Aug 15 Projection
Initial FY 2016 Projection: $36.5 BillionRevised FY 2015 Forecast: $34.5 Billion
$500 Million
Export Outlook for Horticulture Products
2016Key Developments Strong exports to Canada, Europe and China Tree nut exports higher due to strong demand in China and Europe for almonds, pistachios and walnuts
Wild Card China’s continued growth, particularly for tree nuts, fresh fruit and wine
2015Key Developments Weak fresh fruit and vegetable exports to Canada and Japan Reduced processed fruit and vegetable exports to Japan and Europe
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Export Value ($Bil)
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