Post on 11-Aug-2014
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G L A S S E F F E C T 1
G L A S S E F F E C T
may 2014 raimo van der klein
what mobile technology is becoming
G L A S S E F F E C T 2
NOSHEMA NOKIA KPN MOBILE MONDAY LAYAR
raimo van der klein
G L A S S E F F E C T
this presentation represents my personal vision on mobile technology
3
G L A S S E F F E C T 4
in this presentation I divided mobile technology in 4 fundamental layers
of technological innovation
G L A S S E F F E C T 5
this presentation is also divided in 4 periods of eight years
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2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
this story start in 1992 when GSM networks rolled out. also the year that the first SMS was sent
G L A S S E F F E C T 7
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
in this same year Nokia decided to solely focus on telecommunications
G L A S S E F F E C T 8
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
in this same year Nokia introduced the slogan Connecting People in an advertisement.
The slogan was written by Ove Strandberg
G L A S S E F F E C T 9
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
STARTAnalog to Digital
and that is what they did exactly..
PEOPLE
G L A S S E F F E C T 10
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
STARTAnalog to Digital
Nokia had a phone for every „niche”
PEOPLE
G L A S S E F F E C T 11
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
STARTAnalog to Digital
Nokia had the most sophisticated logistical infrastructure to deliver billions of phones all
over the world
PEOPLE
G L A S S E F F E C T 12
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
STARTAnalog to Digital PEOPLE
in 2000 we connected the mobile phone to the internet.
G L A S S E F F E C T 13
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
STARTAnalog to Digital PEOPLE
it is in 2000 that a vision was created of smartphones with broadband internet connections
G L A S S E F F E C T 14
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 20241992
STARTAnalog to Digital
these are the years that operators needed to convince us to go from voice to data
G L A S S E F F E C T 15
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 20241992
STARTAnalog to Digital
broadband networks were built with revenues from ringtones and sms traffic
G L A S S E F F E C T 16
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 20241992
STARTAnalog to Digital
a phase with many exotic shaped phones and many experiments to innovate on the UI level
G L A S S E F F E C T 17
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
as we approached 2008 our social behavior moved from synchronous to a-synchronous services
G L A S S E F F E C T 18
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
social media destinations like twitter and Facebook became populair on mobile phones
SOCIAL
G L A S S E F F E C T 19
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
pricepoints of data subscriptions reached acceptable levels
SOCIAL
G L A S S E F F E C T 20
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
the iPhone becomes the mould for all others for the „smartphone”
SOCIAL
G L A S S E F F E C T 21
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
in 2008 Android was introduced and iPhone made their first phone with GPS
SOCIAL
G L A S S E F F E C T 22
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
it is in 2008 that a vision was created of smartphones with sensors
G L A S S E F F E C T 23
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
hardware gets more and more sensors
G L A S S E F F E C T 24
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
hardware is generating huge amount of data which trigger smart contextual services
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
G L A S S E F F E C T 25
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
this will be the era of the company that distributes the most sensors in a compelling piece of hardware
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
???
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the kings of hardware
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PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
???
G L A S S E F F E C T 28
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!to Agents
???
G L A S S E F F E C T 29
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!to Agents
??????
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the kings of software
G L A S S E F F E C T 31
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
???
G L A S S E F F E C T 32
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!to Agents
AI????
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2016: king of wearables
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PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
???
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!to Agents
AI?
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icons of mobile hardware
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wave 1 1992-2000
“CONNECTING PEOPLE”
wave 2 2000-2008
“CONNECTING INTERNET”
wave 3 2008-2016
“CONNECTING SENSORS”
?Nokia 3210 (160 million sold)
iPhone (350+ million sold)
No icon device. yet
G L A S S E F F E C T
and how we relate to the hardware
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wave 1 1992-2000
wave 2 2000-2008
wave 3 2008-2016
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the 2016 king of hardware will be the company that has the distribution capabilities to bring sensors to billions.
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.. and it’s hardware will be wearable and have a simple AI onboard
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2016: king of context
G L A S S E F F E C T 41
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
???
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!to Agents
AI?
G L A S S E F F E C T 42
wave 1 1992-2000
wave 2 2000-2008
wave 3 2008-2016
system for digital voice
icons of mobile software
GSM voice distribution
App Store content distribution
no winner yet?
system for real-time contextsystem for internet data
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wave 1 1992-2000
wave 2 2000-2008
wave 3 2008-2016
system for digital voice
it will either be GLASS
GSM voice distribution
App Store content distribution
system for real-time contextsystem for internet data
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wave 1 1992-2000
wave 2 2000-2008
wave 3 2008-2016
system for digital voice system for internet data
or Google Now..
system for real-time context
GSM voice distribution
App Store content distribution
G L A S S E F F E C T
2024: King of AI
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G L A S S E F F E C T 46
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!to Agents
??????
G L A S S E F F E C T
1st wave. PEOPLE
2nd wave INTERNET
3rd wave CONTEXT
now we connect everything…
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ME
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the phase between 2016 and 2024 will show us many exotic physical forms of AI and many experiments
trying to innovate on the UX level
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from an earpiece
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to a robot
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Boston Dynamics
or in your house?
NEST
in 2024 we know how to give AI a place in our lives
G L A S S E F F E C T 56
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!to A-synchronous
1992
STARTAnalog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!to Big Data
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!to Agents
G L A S S E F F E C T
as Nokia did not see Apple coming.. what is Google’s blindspot?
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there is one weak spot
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Google does not like hardware.. trying to „capture” the market through the OS layer..
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but in 2016 it is not about the traditional OS on the hardware..
!
hardware by then has evolved beyond the OS level into smart agents
interacting with the cloud
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the 2016 king of hardware will be the company that has the distribution capabilities to bring sensors to billions.
.. and it’s hardware will be wearable and have a simple AI onboard
+
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+ AI
.. if Samsung owns AI technology before 2016 they can break Google’s lucky streak
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moving the scale to Asia?
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