The Expert Systems Life Cycle in AIS Research:

What it Means for Future AIS Research

Glen L. GrayCalifornia State University, Northridge

Victoria ChiuSUNY New Paltz

 Qi Liu and Pei LiRutgers University, The State University of New Jersey

University of Waterloo Symposium on Information Integrity & Information Systems Assurance

8th Biennial Research Symposium

October 4-5, 2013

BACKGROUND -- GENERAL Sutton (2005) The role of AIS research in guiding

practice. AIS research more applied research vs. basic

research, putting AIS researchers at a disadvantage in terms of publication outlets.

Alles, Kogan, Vasarhely (2008) Exploiting comparative advantage… AIS researchers face more competition

compared to NAIS… Researchers in: IS, IT, CS, EE, plus others Accounting firms Other technology organizations

BACKGROUND – AIS/AI/ES O’Leary (2008) Gartner's Hype Cycle

and Information System Research Issues and (2009) The Impact of Gartner's Maturity Curve, Adoption Curve, Strategic Technologies on Information Systems Research...

Moore (2002) Crossing the Chasm

GARNER HYPE CURVE

PRODUCT (OR RESEARCH) LIFE CYCLE

RESEARCHER GROUPSPu

blic

atio

ns

CHASMS

RESEARCH QUESTIONS RQ1: Did expert systems research in accounting

and AIS domain go through a similar industry life cycle over time?

RQ2: Did the type of research evolve over time as would be predicted by the industry life cycle and the Gartner hype curve?

RQ3: Did the type of researcher evolve over time as would be predicted by the adoption life cycle?

RQ4: Did the evolution of the type researcher encounter chasms that slowed or stopped expert system research as would be predicted by Moore?

REASEARCH METHOD Search electronic literature databases

AI/ES/KD AND Accounting/Auditing/Tax[Challenge: Searching early paper-based literature.]

Interview accounting professors who had early and/or frequent hits

Interview Big 4 (6/8) representatives[Challenge: finding people who remember the 80s]

PRELIMINARY RESULTS

SOME GREAT STORIES… Dedication…

Paul Steinbart develops expert system at night at community college because MSU doesn’t have appropriate DEC VAX computer. [1982-84]

Serendipity… Bob Michaelsen (author of first ES/accounting paper)

included ES in his tax dissertation because his daughter was in Brownies with David Waltz’s daughter. [1979…]

Tenacious… Called ES companies until she found a company who

would give her a fully-functional ES for research. [1997]

A STORY TO BEAT Edward Feigenbaum visits University of

Turku (Finland) and talks about A.I. and Mycin-- sounds like “fun.”

1985, Barbo Back builds 500-700 rule expert system in LPA Prolog.

Domain: Corporate tax: 60% Maximum, but many, many exceptions, credits, etc.

Carries MAC to interview practitioners. Results…

RQ1: EXPERT SYSTEMS PUBLICATIONS

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

5

10

15

20

25

12

7

11 11

3

16

21

12

10 10

22

13

16

13

7

4

6

43 3

76

4

65

2

8

Total

Total = 233 articles

TOP JOURNALSTop Journals with the Most Expert Systems

Publications Count %

1 Expert Systems with Applications 26 11.16%

2 Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory 15 6.44%

3 Journal of Information Systems 14 6.01%

4 New Review of Applied Expert Systems and Emerging Technologies 9 3.86%

5 Accounting Education 8 3.43%

6 Accounting, Organizations and Society 6 2.58%

7 International Journal of Accounting Information Systems 6 2.58%

8 Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management 6 2.58%

38.64%

RQ2: TYPE OF PUBLICATIONS

1984-1990 1991-1997 1998-2004 2005-20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Seven-Year Periods

Percent of Articles Published in System-Related Journals

PUBLICATIONS BY ACCOUNTING AREA

58

19 20

76

32

20

8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Accounting FinancialAccounting

ManagerialAccounting

Auditing Tax Education MultipleDisciplines

Area

CHANGING MIX OF APPLICATION AREAS

Accounting Financial Accounting

Managerial Accounting

Auditing Tax Education Mixed0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1984-19901991-19971998-20042005-2011

Accounting Areas

Rela

tive

Perc

enta

ges

DISTRIBUTION OF AUTHORSHIPSNumber of

Articles Published

Number of Authors

Percent of Authors

7 2 0.57%6 2 0.57%5 1 0.28%4 9 2.56%3 10 2.84%2 25 7.10%1 303 86.08%

R3/R4: FREQUENT AUTHORS (PRELIMINARY)Top Expert Systems Authors Publications %

1 Carol E. Brown 7 3.00%2 Daniel E. O’Leary 7 3.00%3 Robert H. Michaelsen 6 2.58%4 Alan Sangster 6 2.58%5 Mary Ellen Phillips 5 2.15%6 Mohammad J. Abdolmohammadi 4 1.72%7 Andrew D. Bailey, Jr. 4 1.72%8 Amelia Annette Baldwin-Morgan 4 1.72%9 Martha M. Eining 4 1.72%

10 James V. Hansen 4 1.72%11 Clyde W. Holsapple 4 1.72%12 R. Steve McDuffie 4 1.72%13 David S. Murphy 4 1.72%14 Paul J. Steinbart 4 1.72%

EXPERT SYSTEMS DISSERTATIONS

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1

0

3

1

3 3 3 3

6

4

3 3

5

2 2

1

0 0 0 0

1

Dissertation #

AAA MEETING PRESENTATIONS Year Presentation #

Pre-1998 (Being compiled)

1998 21999 22001 32002 12003 12004 12006 1

2007-2009 02010 1

PUBLICATIONS IN OTHER FIELDS

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

Expert Systems Articles in All the field Count

in ScienceDirect in Scopusin WILEYin EBSCOAccounting and Auditing field

LESSONS LEARNED?1. Being first to embrace a new technology

limits the types of research, but it also provides some freedom.

2. Being in the lead (ahead of practice) is a prized position.

3. It is hard to lead if no one is following.4. If academics do a good job of leading

practice, practice eventually will take the lead.

LESSONS LEARNED?5. The Gartner hype cycle will usually catch up

with researchers (what goes up, must come down). Corollary: When in the trough of

disillusionment, it’s hard to determine the trough’s length and the slope of the plateau and some researchers will leave instead of risking a long trough or a downward sloping plateau.

6. The types of research within a domain must evolve over time. Corollary: Chasms will be encountered as

types of research evolve—some may be impossible to cross.

LESSONS LEARNED?7. The types of researchers will change as the

types research progresses. Corollary: After crossing each chasm, some

current researchers will leave and new researcher will join the domain.

8. More?