Global Change, Species Diversity, and the Future of Marine Ecosystems

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Global Change, Species Diversity, and the Future of

Marine Ecosystems

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We Rarely Think Beyond the Direct Effects of Climate Change

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Climate Change in a Systems Context

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Global Change in a Systems Context

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Does Community Structure Alter Ecosystem Function?

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Does Diversity Alter Ecosystem Function?

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High Density only Found With High Diversity

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Manipulation of Both Diversity and Density

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Conceptual Model

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Describing our Experiment with Structural Equation Modeling

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Predator Richness Indirectly Affects Water Filtration

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Predator Richness Indirectly Affects Water Filtration

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Which Driver has a Stronger Impact on Ecosystem Function?

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Database: Experiments

! 574 independent experiments ! 192 peer-reviewed papers ! 541 types of organisms (spp, morphs) ! 30 biomes ! 5 continents •  Effect of diversity = log(polyculture/monoculture)

Meta-Analysis of Diversity Manipulations

Meta-Analysis of Diversity and Environmental Manipulations

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What About the Environment?

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Nonlinear Effect of Diversity on Productivity

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Drought Effects Comparable to Mass Extinction

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Experiments Show Diversity Loss Comparable to Climate Change

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Both the Environment and Community Structure Drive Ecosystem Function

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Will Environmental Change have Cascading Consequences?

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California Storm Intensity Increased over the Last 50 Years

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Effect of Kelp Removal on Richness Change After Multiple Removals

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Santa Barbara Coastal LTER Sampling of Rocky Reefs

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Sampling of Rocky Reefs 2000-2009

Food Webs Vary Dramatically in Space

Food Webs Vary Dramatically over Time

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Quantifying Food Web Structure

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Measuring Wave Disturbance

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1.  Big waves initially promote algal diversity & food web complexity

2.  Ultimately, loss of foundation species leads to simplified food webs

Climate Change May Simplify Kelp Forest Food Webs

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Using the Fossil Record To Understand Current Extinction Threat

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How Will Climate Change Alter Coastal Ecosystems?

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Laminaria

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Lessonia, Macrocystis,

Eisenia Laminaria, Macrocystis, Ecklonia Lessonia,

Macrocystis, Ecklonia

Agarum, Alaria, Saccharina, Laminaria

Ecklonia

Laminaria, Alaria, Macrocystis, Eisenia, Agarum, Costaria, Dictyoneurum, Egregia, Saccharina, Lessoniopsis, Nereocystis, Pelagophycus, Pleurophycus, Postelsia, Pterygophora

Macrocystis

Laminaria

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What are the Consequences of Food Web Complexity?

Predator diversity reduces herbivory Byrnes et al. 2006,

Byrnes and Stachowicz 2009

Predator diversity increases herbivory Finke and Denno 2004

Predator diversity doesn’t affect herbivory

Finker and Snyder 2008 (or, # of herbivores anyway)

Predator diversity shortcuts herbivory

Bruno and O’Connor 2005

A Probabilistic Approach to Food Webs and Extinctions

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Climate Change, Food Web Complexity, And Productivity: Salt Marshes

How Will Human Driven Shifts in Marine Food Webs Alter Ocean Productivity and Stability?

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The Future of Open Science

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Acknowledgements Mentors: Jay Stachowicz, Dan Reed, Bradley Cardinale

Collaborators: Kyle Edwards, Russ Schmidt, Sally Holbrook, Kyle Cavanaugh

SBC LTER: Clint Nelson, Christine Donahue, Shannon Harrer, Gabe Rodriguez, Matt Silbert, Jocelyn Christie, Countless SBC LTER Divers

Funding: National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, NSF LTER Program, Bodega Marine Lab, NSF IGERT Program

Global Change, Species Diversity, and the Future of Marine Ecosystems

Technology