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GNESD Energy Security Thematic Study:Some Findings
Ram Shrestha and S. Kumar
Objectives of the Study
• Analysis of energy resources and use• Two-tier energy security analysis:
(at national and household levels)- Identification of threats and vulnerabilities - Measures adopted to enhance energy security
Countries under the study: - Argentina, Brazil, India, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Thailand, Tunisia
GNESD Centres Participating in the Energy Security Study
Africa:• The African Energy Policy Research Network/Foundation for Woodstove
Dissemination (AFREPREN), Kenya• Energy Research Center (ERC), South Africa• Mediterranean Renewable Energy Centre (MEDREC), Tunisia• Environmental Development Action in the Third World (ENDA-TM), Senegal
Asia:• Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand• The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India
South America:• Centro Clima/COPPE/Federal University of Rio de Janeiro and CENBIO at the
University of Sao Paolo, Brazil• The Institute for Energy Economics at Bariloche Foundation (FB), Argentina
Different Definitions of Energy Security (1)
• Energy security at the national level is “securing adequate energy supplies at reasonable and stable prices in order to sustain economic performance and growth” (APERC)=> A developed country definition?
• According to UN (2007) :A nation-state is energy secure to the degree that fuel and energy services are available to ensure: a) survival of the nation, b) protection of national welfare, and c) minimization of risks associated with supply and use of fuel and energy services. The five dimensions of energy security include energy supply, economic, technological, environmental, social and cultural, and military/security dimensions” (UN, 2007).
According to the Integrated Energy Policy, Government of India:
“...we are energy secure when we can supply lifeline energy to all our citizens irrespective of their ability to pay for it as well as meet their effective demand for safe and convenient energy to satisfy their various needs at competitive prices, at all times and with a prescribed confidence level considering shocks and disruptions that can be reasonably expected.”
Different Definitions of Energy Security (2)
• South Africa Study: Energy security means ensuring that diverse energy resources, in sustainable quantities and at affordable prices, are available to the South African economy in support of economic growth and poverty alleviation, taking into account environment management requirements and interactions among economic sectors’ (DME, 2007).
• Senegal Study:“to secure for all the access to energy products in sufficient quantity, of good quality and at an affordable price to meet the economic growth needs, the fight against poverty and development, without harming the environment.”
Different Definitions of Energy Security (3)
Indicators used in the national level analysis
Mostly used available secondary data (some primary data used in Argentina case).
• Indicators used for the national level study:– Energy import dependency Net Energy Import Ratio (NEIR)– Adequacy of supply capacity: Supply-Demand gap– Diversification of energy sources
Shannon-Wienier Index (SWI) and Herfindhal-Hirshman Index (HHI)
– Availability of fossil energy resources and their rate of depletion. Reserve to production ratio (R/P ratio)
– Energy Intensity (E/GDP)
– Economic implications of energy imports • Vulnerability index 1 = Expenditure on energy imports / GDP • Vulnerability index 2 = Expenditure on energy imports / Total
export earnings
Indicators used in the household sector analysis
– Total household expenditure on energy – Household expenditure on different fuels – Household energy expenditure for different income groups – Access to electricity and other modern fuels
Energy security by resource type
Countries with - Biomass energy security problem: e.g., Kenya and
Senegal, India (?)- Oil and gas security problem: India, Kenya, Senegal,
Thailand, Tunisia, South Africa.- Countries with electricity security problem (almost all
study countries)
Net Energy Import Dependence
Wide variation in Net Energy Import Ratio (%) (with biomass included) : -9.5% to +58%
Argentina
Brazil
India Kenya
Thailand
Tunisia
Senegal
South Africa
OECD
NEIR %
-95. 2% (007
)
1 0 . 6%
20
07)
23.6%
(2005)
20.0%(2005)
4 5 .8 %
20
06)
41
%20
04)
58. 5% (
20
06)
20.0 %20
05)
43.0%
(2005)
• With biomass excluded, NEIR is significantly higher in several countries ; e.g., in Senegal NEIR rises to 98%.
• NEIR increasing in most countries over time• Poor countries with higher NEIR value more vulnerable to energy price rises
and supply restrictions
Note: VI-1 = Net energy import cost as % of GDP
VI-2 = Net energy import cost as % of total export earning
*2007 figures
Energy import cost is rising over time both as % of GDP and total export earnings in most net energy importing countries.
Economic Vulnerability to Energy Imports
Indica-tor
Argen-tina
Brazil* India Kenya Sene-gal
South Africa
Thai-land
Tuni-sia
VI-1 (%)
-1.5 0.3 9.6 18.2 0.3 11.8 13.0
VI-2 (%)
5.1 2.4 48.4 56.2 13.4 18.6
Energy Price Rise and Economic Vulnerability due to Energy
Imports
• In Senegal VI-1 value was 5 to 6% during 2000-2004; it increased to 9.5% in 2005 and 18.2% in 2006.
• The share of the energy bill in total export earnings (VI-2) was around 30% prior to 2005-2006, and it increased to 56% in 2006.
• In South Africa VI-2 increased from 1.4% in 2002 to 13.4% in 2006.
(Note: VI-1 = Net energy import cost as % of GDP
VI-2 = Net energy import cost as % of total export earning)
Power Sector Security Issues
• Heavy reliance on one energy resource for power generation: • Brazil: 70% hydro• India: > 59% Coal• Kenya: > 50% in Hydro• Senegal: > 90% (thermal)• South Africa : 91% (coal)• Thailand: > 66% Natural gas• Tunisia: 88% Natural gas
Distortion in Pricing as a Contributor to Energy
Insecurity
• Energy security need not always be related to high price of imported energy.
–In South Africa, despite having big coal reserve, domestic power plants face unreliable supply of coal from multinationals due to distortion in coal price (as compared to the export price).
• Increase in electricity price with the rising price of coal– threat to electricity security (South Africa and India). • Subsidy in electricity price – a factor behind capacity shortage in many countries
Growing biomass energy demand and supply gap –
Case of Kenya
• Low income countries like Kenya are trapped into heavy dependence on biomass energy
• Biomass accounted for 68% of total energy supply in 2004 • Biomass demand growth: about 1.5% p.a. during 1994-2004• Forest cover less than 3% of total land area. • Rapid depletion of forest area threaten future supply of biomass
energy - predominantly used by households.
=> Un-sustainability of biomass use?
=> A biomass energy resource related security problem (besides fossil fuels and electricity related energy security problems).
Fossil fuel security: Case of India
• Increasing domestic demand-supply gap – in coal (9%) and gas (40%)
• Increasing import dependency (71% of oil, and 65% of coking coal recently) – (low quality of Indian coal)
• Falling R/P ratios of coal and oil reserves
Fossil fuel security - Case of Tunisia
• R/P ratio of crude oil falling (peaked in 1982)• Demand growing at 1.3% p.a. since 2000• R/P ratio declining at 3.6% (CAGR) during 1995-2004• Became a net importer of oil since 2000.
Lack of adequate investment to find new oil and gas reserves – a factor!
Electricity supply security
• Due to inadequate investment and/or shortage of fuel supply– India, Tunisia, Senegal
• Due to due to fluctuations in water inflows due to changes in hydrological conditions (with draught etc)– Brazil and Kenya
In India – electricity shortage of 10% and peak capacity shortage of 13.5% in 2006/07
Energy Security Policies and Measures
• Energy efficiency likely to be a more cost effective measure for attaining energy security than other options
EE policies include:• Setting energy reduction targets (at sectoral and national levels):
e.g., South Africa (12% energy saving target at the national level to be achieved by 2015).
• DSM programs: Thailand• Energy Conservation Fund: Thailand• Appliance efficiency standards and labeling: Brazil, India• Building energy code=> e.g., requiring installation of solar water
heaters in new buildings (several countries)• Energy efficiency based appliance tax (Tunisia)
Energy Efficiency Programs and Policies
• Energy efficiency likely to be a more cost effective measure for attaining energy security than other options
Policies & Programs:• Setting energy reduction targets (sectoral and national) e.g., South
Africa (12% energy saving target at the national level to be achieved by 2015).
• DSM programs: Thailand• Energy Conservation Fund: Thailand• Appliance efficiency standards and labeling: Brazil, India• Building energy code=> e.g., requiring installation of solar water
heaters in new buildings (several countries)• Energy efficiency based appliance tax – a proposal (Tunisia)
Energy Efficiency Programs and Policies
• Promotion/distribution of efficient appliances:– Improved cook stoves (India)
– Energy efficient lamps (Brazil, India and several other countries)
Energy Efficiency Programs and Policies (2)
• Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS):– Argentina, Brazil (in power), South Africa (power)
• Renewable Energy Purchase Obligation - Fixing the % of energy to be purchased from renewables, e.g., India
• Biofuels Program (for transportation)- Brazil, Thailand• Biogas Program, India• Strategically targeted RET, e.g., solar water heaters in Brazil • Subsidy / tax incentives on Renewable technologies• Use of Nuclear Energy: Thailand by 2020/2021• Use of other sources of power generation: MSW, biomass (through
CDM) in several countries• Building energy code=> e.g., requiring installation of solar water
heaters in new buildings
Renewable Energy Promotion Policies
(for Energy Diversification)
Diversification of Energy Resources (based on HHI)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Kenya Senegal India Non-OECD
Tunisia Thailand Brazil Argentina SouthAfrica
OECD
He
rfin
dh
al-
Hir
sh
ma
n I
nd
ex
(H
HI)
1990
2006
• Low level of diversification in low-income resource-poor countries• No clear relationship between income level and diversification• Increasing diversification over time.• Lower level of diversification than in OECD.
Source: IEA (2008)
• Diversification of Suppliers: India • Energy equity investment abroad: India
Energy Source (Supplier) Diversification Policies
• Cross-border sub-regional hydropower development and other energy trade: – Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa
• Cross border natural gas development and trade • Sub-regional power system interconnection
Regional Energy Resources Development and Trade
• Strategic Energy Reserve: India (5 million tons of oil in SPR by 2012)
• Schemes for enhanced/improved oil recovery: India
• Policies – to attract private investment (oil industry in Tunisia, independent
power producers (IPP) in Brazil, Tunisia, Thailand) and – to encourage the use of Clean Development Mechanism (in
Brazil, India) in reducing the investment gap.
Other Energy Security Policies and Measures
Adequacy of Policies & Programs?
• Energy security based policies and programs are relatively new in the countries under the study (except India and Brazil).
• Difference between identification of policies and measures and their implementation.
• Many policies and targets are either proposals only or are announced to be effective at a future year.
• Financial, informational, technical, institutional/regulatory barriers need to be overcome, – e.g., MNRE in India re: institutional barrier
• CDM and other carbon finance mechanisms need to be exploited.
Biomass Demand Supply Gap
• Reliance on non-marketed sources of energy.
– Substantial fraction of the population and industries in these countries rely on non-marketed sources of energy (e.g. collected biomass) and this high dependence is likely to continue for a foreseeable future. Biomass as %
– The energy supply problem is compounded by the fast decreasing forest resources in many developing countries. =>SENEGAL /KENYA S
– For example,
• in Senegal, biomass provides over 43% of the total primary energy requirements and its forest area is reducing.
• 68% of energy consumption depends on biomass and its forest coverage land is less than 3%.
Energy Security Requires more than Energy Sector
Solutions
Energy Security problem closely linked with transport and other infrastructure development issues.
Excessive reliance on road transport leads excessive use of petroleum products.
Brazil example.
Structure of Transport Sector in Brazil, OECD and Developing World
[GEIPOT, 2001]
Transport Type OECD Developing World
Brazil
Road 30.0 42.3 58.7
Rail 40.0 38.5 20.6
Water 16.0 10.9 17.2
Other 14.0 8.3 3.4
Energy Security Issues at the Household level
• The energy security related vulnerabilities and threats in the household sector in the low income countries have the following characteristics: – Low access to modern energy – High share of energy costs in total monthly income / expenditure
of the poor • Energy cost up to 40% of total monthly expenditure in Kenya
– Rising costs of energy– High dependency on biomass – Unreliable supply of electricity and LPG
– There exists big inequity in terms of access to modern and safe energy between the poor and rich in several countries.
– Access to electricity is very high (over 90%) in some countries (Thailand, Argentina, Brazil), the access is low in others; e.g., in Kenya, access to electricity in households is about 15% (only about 8% of HHs have access to LPG).
Household Access to electricity
Rising Residential electricity consumption per
capita
Residential Electricity Consumption per Capita (kwh/capita)
37.9
33.5
17.6
134.9
149.0
327.8
343.3
641.5
135.2
1890.2
97.7
36.4
54.1
332.5
428.5
456.1
682.0
808.1
280.8
2403.9
0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0
India
Kenya
Senegal
Tunisia
Thailand
Brazil
Argentina
South Africa
Non-OECD
OECD
kwh/capita
2006
1990
Rising Household Energy Expenditure – Case of Thailand
[AIT,2009]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1986 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Sh
are
of
Exp
en
dit
ure
on
En
erg
y a
s a
P
erc
en
tag
e o
f T
ota
l E
xp
en
dit
ure
(%
)
Exp
en
dit
ure
on
En
erg
y i
n H
ou
seh
old
S
ecto
r (B
ah
t)
Year
Energy Expenditure
Share of energy expenditure to total expenditure
Household Energy Expenditure by Income Group in Argentina
[FB, 2009]
9.0 8.1
11.7
4.9
6.9
12.8
14.5 11.6 10.6 10.1
8.5 9.4
10.7 11.4
18.3
13.6
3.1
5.3
7.5 6.6
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
d01 d02 d03 d04 d05 d06 d07 d08 d09 d10
mo
nth
ly A
rgen
tin
e $
of
2004
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
% o
f mo
nth
ly expen
ditu
re
Monthly energy expenditure - estimated % on average monthly Expenditure % on average monthly Income
Household Energy Expenditure by Income Group in Thailand
[AIT, 2009]
17.08%
10.05%8.84%
8.00%7.09% 6.91% 6.81%
5.13%
฿0
฿500
฿1,000
฿1,500
฿2,000
฿2,500
฿3,000
฿3,500
฿4,000
d1 d2 d3 d4 d5 d6 d7 d8
Baht
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
Monthly Energy Expenditures % Monthly energy expenditure on average income
Energy Pricing/Subsidy and Energy Ladder
Provision of cleaner energy – an energy security issue in developing countries• Movement down the energy ladder observed with the removal of LPG subsidy and increase in international price of LPG
• e.g., Fuelwood’s share in Brazilian residential energy consumption increased from 31.8% to 37.1% during 2000-2002.
Dependence on Biomass
– Biomass energy use in household sector remains high, especially in the low income countries .
– The household sector is the major user of biomass energy (over 72% of household energy consumption in India and over 60% in Thailand, while it is below 13% in rural Argentina).
– In countries where options other than biomass are either not available or not affordable, ensuring sustainable supply of biomass energy presents a major energy security challenge.
Data Problems and Further Studies
• Data on foreign fuel suppliers
- Diversification of suppliers/sources not examined.• Temporal data on household energy mix and appliance stocks by income group and by rural/urban categories • Household energy expenditure by fuel type
- analysis of energy ladder hypothesis?
- analysis of energy equity/energy poverty?• Implications of energy industry privatization/deregulation on energy security• Energy saving potentials of energy efficiency and RE policies and costs
Thank You
ram@ait.ac.th