Post on 10-Apr-2015
description
transcript
By Dr. Nandkumar M. KamatLecturer, Goa University
Member, state level steering committee (SLSC), Ministry of Urban development, JNNURM,
Govt. of India, 2008
Problems of Goa’s unsustainable urbanisation and the future threat from sea level rise
Area shaded in Red shows the focus of urbanisation-at present and for future
Population Projection Talukawise Assignment
North Goa
1981 (%)
1986 (%)
1991 (%)
1996 (%)
2001 (%)
2006 (%)
2011(%)
Tiswadi 131941(13.1)
139033 (12.8)
146443 (12.5)
155026 (12.2)
157948 (11.8)
175517 (11.7)
181617 (11.0)
Bardez 153913 (15.3)
170766 (15.7)
189383 (16.2)
211089 (16.7)
226447 (16.8)
264945 (17.6)
288656 (17.5)
Pernem 59352(5.9)
62927 (5.8)
66689 (5.7)
71032 (5.6)
72816 (5.4)
81414 (5.4)
84761 (5.1)
Bicholim 74089 (7.4)
79156 (7.3)
84532(7.2)
90731(7.2)
93723(7.0)
105594(7.0)
110780(6.7)
Satari 40838(4.1)
44984(4.1)
49530(4.2)
54810(4.3)
58376(4.3)
67810(4.5)
73348(4.4)
Ponda 107888(10.7)
117644(10.8)
128227(11.0)
140467(11.1)
148097(11.0)
170296(11.3)
182349(11.1)
Sub Total
568021(56.4)
614511(56.6)
664804(56.8)
723155(57.1)
757407(56.4)
865576(57.5)
921511(56.9)
Population Projection Talukawise Assignment
North Goa
1981 (%)
1986 (%)
1991 (%)
1996 (%)
2001 (%)
2006 (%)
2011(%)
Tiswadi 131941(13.1)
139033 (12.8)
146443 (12.5)
155026 (12.2)
157948 (11.8)
175517 (11.7)
181617 (11.0)
Bardez 153913 (15.3)
170766 (15.7)
189383 (16.2)
211089 (16.7)
226447 (16.8)
264945 (17.6)
288656 (17.5)
Pernem 59352(5.9)
62927 (5.8)
66689 (5.7)
71032 (5.6)
72816 (5.4)
81414 (5.4)
84761 (5.1)
Bicholim 74089 (7.4)
79156 (7.3)
84532(7.2)
90731(7.2)
93723(7.0)
105594(7.0)
110780(6.7)
Satari 40838(4.1)
44984(4.1)
49530(4.2)
54810(4.3)
58376(4.3)
67810(4.5)
73348(4.4)
Ponda 107888(10.7)
117644(10.8)
128227(11.0)
140467(11.1)
148097(11.0)
170296(11.3)
182349(11.1)
Sub Total
568021(56.4)
614511(56.6)
664804(56.8)
723155(57.1)
757407(56.4)
865576(57.5)
921511(56.9)
Population Projection Talukawise Assignment
South Goa 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Mormugao
98541(8.8)
108994(10.0)
120503(10.3)
133901(10.6)
148790(11.1)
167027(11.1)
195857(11.9)
Salcete 193755(19.2)
206457(19.0)
219897(18.8)
235393(18.6)
251988(18.7)
272512(18.1)
307844(18.7)
Quepem 55593(5.5)
59902(5.5)
64518(5.5)
69839(5.5)
75602(5.6)
82678(5.5)
94446(5.7)
Sanguem 55904(5.5)
57616(5.3)
59355(5.1)
61455(4.8)
63630(4.7)
66557(4.4)
72723(4.4)
Canacona 35935(3.6)
38259(3.5)
40716(3.5)
43549(3.4)
46581(3.5)
50333(3.3)
56811(3.4)
Sub Total 439728(43.6)
471229(43.4)
504989(43.2)
544138(42.9)
586592(43.6)
639107(42.5)
727681(44.1)
Total 1007749
(100)
10857399(100)
1169793(100)
1267293(100)
1343998(100)
1504682
(100)
1649192(100)
Note : Mid-point growth rate of 1.558 during the decade (1986-1996) is taken
Population ProjectionUrban-Rural Components of
Population• The decadal growth rate of urban
population during (1981-1991) has been 48.63%Year Urban Component
(% of Total Population)
Urban Population
1981 32.03 322782
1991 41.01 479732
2001 53.04 728222
2011 65.08 1073294
Population ProjectionRural-Urban Composition
Taluka Urban Population
(2011)
Rural Population (2011)
Population of Taluka at 2011
North Goa
Tiswadi 126705 (69.8) 54912 (30.2) 181617Bardez 224682 (77.8) 63974 (22.2) 288656Pernem 45173 (53.3) 39588 (46.7) 84761Bicholim 45275 (40.9) 65505 (59.1) 110780Satari 24975 (34.1) 48373 (65.9) 73348Ponda 127951 (70.2) 54398 (29.8) 182349Total 594761 (64.6) 326750 (35.4) 921511South Goa
Marmugao 184696 (94.3) 11161 (15.7) 195857Salcete 178749 (58.1) 129095 (41.9) 307844Quepem 59179 (62.6) 35267 (37.4) 94446Sanguem 14571 (20.0) 58152 (80.0) 72723Canacona 17463 (30.7) 39348 (69.3) 56811Total 454658 (62.5) 273023 (37.5) 727681Total Goa 1049419 (63.6) 599773 (36.4) 1649192
Urbanization from spaceSatellite images of Goa’s urban
areas and the problem spots
Mapusa, Pernem, Siolim, Panaji, Porvorim, Bicholim, Ponda,
Marmagoa-Vasco, Sanquelim, Margao and Salcete etc.
Margao’s urban sprawl
Central Margao
Salcete ubanisation
Quepem
Bicholim
Bicholim bus stand near the river
Sanquelim town and outskirts
Sanquelim topohydrography
Image mosaic of Bardez coastline-dense settlements
THREATS TO URABNISATION
INDIA’S COASTAL CITIES ARE IN DANGER
Global warming, sea level rise and coastal urban centres:- a quick tour of the vulnerable
areas
We can not wait for the Indian version
World is reacting but We are slow learners…
• Latur and Bhuj earthquakes• Orissa supercyclone• Asian Tsunami• The deluge in Ahmedabad and Mumbai
after record rains• Probably the kicking action by nature
prompted the lawmakers to respond with a far reaching legislative remedy
Human exposure to sea-level rise is significant and growing
• Global-mean sea level rose at least 10 cm during the 20th Century
• This rise is expected to continue • Likely to accelerate due to human-induced warming
during the 21st Century.• Coastal zones in world account for 25% of
population• Coastal population are increasing due to migrations• The highest population density occur seaward across
the near-coastal zone, below 20 m elevation ( many coastal cities and towns in India fall in this category)
• Urbanisation is an important trend and 20 large coastal cities (>8 million people) are projected for 2010, together with many more smaller cities and towns clustered close to the coastline
Global-mean sea-level rise will resultin a range of impacts
• increased flood risk and submergence
• salinisation of surface and ground waters and morphological change,
• such as erosion and wetland loss
The natural-system effects of sea-level rise have a range of potential socio-economic
impacts
Increased loss of property and coastal habitats Increased flood risk and potential loss of life Damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure
Loss of renewable and subsistence resources Loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation functions Loss of non-monetary cultural resources and values Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality
Coastal cities are always vulnerable to climate changes
Most of the people residing in coastal zones are directly dependent on natural resource bases of coastal ecosystemsAny global warming-induced climatic change such as
increase in sea surface temperature, change in frequency, intensity or tracks of
cyclones, sea level rise may aggravate the potential risks to coastal zones
UNEP report (1989) has identified India as one amongst 27 countries which are most vulnerable to the
impacts ofglobal warming related accelerated
sea level rise
Why India’s coastline is vulnerable to SLR?
• Large low-lying coastal areas such as Kutch, Saurashtra, parts of Konkan, Goa, Malabar, regions near river deltas
• unsustainable settlements• high population density • high settlement density• Increased interference in natural defense
barriers (sand dunes, mangroves, wetlands )
The worst affected regions from physical point of view
• Land area loss >Gujarat and West Bengal
• Highest land area loss> Goa-4-5% of total area
• Impact on Population >West Bengal, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu (on account of high population density in coastal cities)
The vulnerabilty of area and population of coastal states to SLR
The consequences of the deluge…• India’s coastal states would lose about 6000 sq.
kms. area• About 7-8 million people would be affected • Most vulnerable areas on west coast> Kutch,
Mumbai, coastal Goa, South Kerala.• On east coast> urban centres near deltas of river
Ganges (West Bengal), Cauvery (Tamil Nadu), Krishna and Godawari (Andhra Pradesh), Mahanadi (Orissa)
• Islands of Lakshadweep archipelago would be submerged
Circles denote vulnerable coastal areas
East-West geomorphological profile of India’s coasts
The east coast does not have solid defenses
A quick tour of some vulnerable cities from
Gujarat to West Bengal
Points to remember….as you watch these images…
• Most of the cities do not have the topography in their favour to withstand SLR
• Mean elevation ranges from 0- 20 metres with heavily built coastal areas just within 1-7 m above sea level
• The first impact of SLR would be felt by the low lying areas
Dwaraka-Gujarat-may again be swallowed by sea
Dwaraka-This area is just a few met. above sea level…
It would be a hopeless situation for Gandhiji’s Porbander too…
Porbander is encroaching on its’ beaches…and may pay a price after SLR
Veraval the ancient port is threatened by SLR
But the builders won’t stop to use every inch of land…
Close to Veraval is famous Somnath temple-it may be isolated
Surat is heavily built in low lying estuarine areas of Narmada
On central west coast ,time is running out for such areas of Mumbai
Low lying areas of Mumbai are vulnerable to SLR
What would be the fate of these Mumbai slums when the sea moves in here?
Residents from such slums in Mumbai need to be urgently rehabilitated to higher grounds
Alibag is built just 2-7 m above sea level and may face a deluge..
Small coastal towns in Konkan like Malvan are also vulnerable
Panaji may loose the densely populated low lying areas to the sea
Densely populated Salcete coast would be submerged
Naval base may not be able to save coastal parts of Karwar
Unsustainable growth of Mangalore spells dooms after SLR
Coastal parts of Mangalore are vulnerable to SLR
Most of Kochi-Cochin is just 5-8 m above sea level-densely settled…
Overbuilt Chennai may be vulnerable to SLR
SLR may impact coastal wetlands and backwaters like Pulicat
The coastal parts of Vizag may face the brunt of SLR
Kolkata with many low lying areas needs to wake up to SLR challenge…
No future for Diamond harbour after SLR!
Tasks ahead…
• How coastal urban India would plan for the worst case scenarios?.
• What is the present status of planning and preparedness and what are the possibilities for ensuring sustainable urbanization and disaster mitigation?.
• How much time we have before the disaster strikes?.
• What role the government, the media, the civil society could play?.
A judicious and effective use of the disaster management bill,
2005 is necessary for research in vulnerability studies, capacity building, new land use policies
etc.
"disaster management" means a continuous and integrated process of planning, organising, coordinating
and implementing measures which are necessaryor expedient for
(i) prevention of danger or threat of any disaster;(ii) mitigation or reduction of risk of any disaster or its severity orconsequences;(iii) capacity-building;(iv) preparedness to deal with any disaster;(v) prompt response to any threatening disaster situation or disaster;(vi) assessing the severity or magnitude of effects of any disaster;(vii) evacuation, rescue and relief;(viii) rehabilitation and reconstruction;
References• Kamat, N. (2001). Urbanization in
Goa: the past 2000 years: a short review, Govapuri, April-June 2001, pp.12-21
• Census of India reports, 1971 to 2001• Govt. of Goa, economic survey-2001
to 2007• Google earth images form
earth.google.com• Regional plan, Goa, 2001, 2011• United nations reports and research
papers
Dhananyavad
Thank you