Growth In Texas Water Planning

Texas Demographic Data Users ConferenceMay 20th, 2015 Kevin KlugeTexas Water Development Board

Agenda

• Growth Review

• Unique Units of Growth

• Development of Projections

• Resulting Goal of Projections

Projecting Growth In Water Plans

Growth in the 2017 State Water Plan

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

2017 State Water Plan

SDC ‐ Half Migration

SDC ‐ Full Migration

Growth Over 60 Years

Growth In the Next 10 Years

Total 2070 Population

Projected Areas In State Water Planning

• Cities (978)

• Water Utilities (337)

• Utilities In Lieu of Cities

• Collection of Utilities (9)

Growth In Montgomery County

Growth In Fort Bend County

Growth In North DFW

Growth In Travis‐Williamson Counties

Growth In Austin‐San Antonio

Drafting of Projections

• Identify Cities & Utilities– Cities > 500 pop– Utilities > 280 acre‐feet

• County Projections– TxSDC half or full migration

• Project Cities & Utilities– Estimate utility pop– Based on county growth

Regional Review of Projections

• Regional Review & Revision Requests– Increases required offsets – Over 400 regional revision requests– Over 90% of revision requests partially or wholly adopted

• Other Agency Stakeholder– Texas Parks & Wildlife Division– Texas Commission on Environmental Quality– Texas Dept. of Agriculture

Review of Projections: Region C

• Over 280 municipal entities in region

• Area Stakeholders

• Analyzed build‐out limits

• Redistributed growth

Development of Projections: Region H

• Coordination with Regional Groundwater Update Project

• Projections on 1 square mile grid

• Evaluation of the ability to develop areas 

• Overall projections similar to TWDB Draft.

Goal of State Water Planning

Municipal Demand Projections

Dry‐Year Per‐Person Water Use

MINUS

Efficiency Savings

TIMES

Population Projections19

Growth In Municipal Water Use

Water Demands of the State

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Steam‐Elec Power

Municipal

Mining

Manufacturing

Livestock

Irrigation

2012 SWP

A New Way To View the Details

www.texasstatewaterplan.org

The Take Away

• The State Water Plan projects:– Far into the future, and– Down to small cities and utilities

• Projections Are Developed With Regional input

• Goal is Credible Water Demand Projections and Meeting Water Needs

Thank You

Kevin Klugekevin.kluge@twdb.texas.gov

512‐936‐0829