Post on 14-Jul-2015
transcript
The Future
The Futureof
Interaction
Different Life CyclesRequire a Different Kind of Programming
- Users- Content- Display- Furniture- Interior- Sensors- Shell
Fantasy
Technology Practicality
Drivers
Fantasy
Media Shape Our Vision
Fantasy
But They Shape a Different Visionfor Each Generation
Machine as Point Solution
Man vs. Machine
Man Orchestrates immersive Computation
Man and Machine Are One
- Boomers build telecom backbone and invests in platforms. - Gen X builds WWW on top
- Gen Y Builds Social Computing
It takes 10-20 years to build a new technology platform
Each Generationhas a different vision
of the Future
Here is How 40 Year olds at MicrosoftSees 2019 Today
Aweful Cool,But Theyre Stuckon the Holodeck.
In the future,there isnt a difference between
the user and the system.
The people building it grew up in the Matrix.
Its Minority Report vs.
Avatar
Fantasy
Technology Practicality
Drivers
Technology
Materials and DistributionShape Whats Possible
Sensor Network Processing NetworkTrigger Display
Now- Mobile Computing- Location Aware Apps- Tablet PCs
2-5 Years- Intenet TV- Social Software- Video Telepresence- Online Video- Public Virtual Worlds- Cloud Computing- SOA
5-10 Years
- 3D Flat-Panel Displays- Context Delivery Architecture- Video Search- Surface Computers- Augmented Reality- Personal Monitoring
Always On the Horizon
- Wireless Power- Case-level RFID- Speech Recognition- Mesh/Ad Hoc Networks
Sensing
Sensor Network Processing NetworkTrigger Display
1 MP Digital Camera
Era Cost1994-95 $10,000 2010 $1-3 2020 ?
Types of Sensing
3DVisionMotionSound
RFCapacitance/Resistance
What This Means
It will cost very little for materials to be aware.
Key Trade Off
Installation vs. Security vs. Lifespan
Processing
Sensor Network Processing NetworkTrigger Display
Rendering Toystory
Era Computer Hours Cost1994-95 800,000 $20,000,0002010 12.5 $42020 5 Seconds $.02
What This Means
We can compute really fastor really energy efficiently.
Key Trade Off
Speed vs. Heat
Network
Sensor Network Processing NetworkTrigger Display
Display
Era Cost1994-95 $10,000 2010 $4502020 ?
42 Display
Types of DisplayASS
PlasmaLCDLED
OLEDBistable
Roll to RollEmissive Materials
Types of Display
Autostereoscopic
Types of Display
Roll to Roll
What This Means
Order of magnitude price drop in electronics and lighting cost.
Key Trade Off
electronics vs. light vs. mechanical
Network
Sensor Network Processing NetworkTrigger Display
Network
Era Speed1994-95 56k 2010 1.5 Mbps2020 2.5 GBps
Types of Network
Wired vs. Wireless
What This Means
Streaming Realtime Media
Key Trade Off
Wiredcost/time of install/upgrade vs. speed
WirelessSpeed vs. Concrete
The Future is Here
It Just Isnt Evenly Distributed
Interface still existsin frames
Today system is aware of actions.
Tomorrow, the system is aware of users
Technology isnt on the walls.It is the walls.
Its Minority Report vs.
Avatar
Fantasy
Technology Practicality
Drivers
It will cost very little for materials to be aware.
We can compute really fastor really energy efficiently.
Order of magnitude price drop in video electronics and lighting cost.
Streaming Realtime, interactive Media
The Future of Interaction
Different Life CyclesRequire a Different Kind of Programming
- Users- Content- Display- Furniture- Interior- Sensors- Shell
This Makes Strange Things Happen
Physical Environment Modelled in Virtual Environment
Light = VideoVideo = Surface Finish
Sound = PartitionsSensors = User-centered Environments
So, What Do We Need to Invent for You?
Physical Environment Modelled in Virtual Environment
Light = VideoVideo = Surface Finish
Sound = PartitionsSensors = User-centered Environments